Live · The Road to Autonomy Indices
.RCI · Robotaxi Confidence Index 49.7 – 0.0 .ADLCI · Autonomous Driving Licensing Confidence Index 26.1 ▲ +0.6 .ATCI · Autonomous Trucks Confidence Index 40.4 ▲ +0.3 .DCI · Delivery Bots Confidence Index 55.5 ▼ +0.5 Baidu Apollo GoCN 78.9 ▼ -1.3 WaymoUS 77.1 ▼ -0.4 Pony.aiCN 66.0 ▲ +6.8 Starship TechnologiesEE 65.9 ▼ -3.2 NeolixCN 60.7 ▼ -13.1 CocoUS 60.4 ▲ +10.7 Serve RoboticsUS 58.6 ▼ -4.0 KodiakUS 55.2 ▼ -1.1 WeRideCN 54.6 ▼ -0.2 AuroraUS 50.4 ▼ -2.2 Didi Autonomous DrivingCN 49.8 ▲ +9.8 MeituanCN 46.6 ▼ -19.8 TeslaUS 44.1 ▼ -0.5 Volvo Autonomous SolutionsSE 42.7 ▲ +7.2 Cao Cao MobilityCN 41.3 ▲ +9.7 XPengCN 39.2 ▼ -7.8 ZooxUS 38.7 ▼ -1.1 Applied IntuitionUS 37.5 ▼ -20.7 DoorDash DotUS 35.0 ▼ -1.4 DeepRoute.aiCN 34.3 ▼ -19.4 Avride PodUS 34.2 ▼ -0.7 May MobilityUS 34.0 ▲ +1.5 TorcUS 33.5 ▲ +3.5 MotionalUS 32.8 ▲ +0.4 Bot AutoUS 30.2 ▼ -8.6 AvrideUS 29.9 ▼ -0.8 WaabiCA 29.4 ▲ +1.6 MomentaCN 28.8 ▼ -18.9 MobileyeIL 28.4 ▼ -23.4 MOIA AmericaDE 28.1 ▲ +3.7 WayveGB 27.9 ▼ -4.5 VerneHR 22.6 ▼ -0.7 AutobrainsIL 22.1 – 0.0 Stack AVUS 21.9 ▼ -0.1 NuroUS 19.4 ▼ -3.1 PlusAIUS 18.9 ▲ +0.5 Helm.aiUS 17.6 ▲ +0.1 Tensor AutoUS 15.8 ▼ -8.4 HUMAINSA 2.1 – 0.0 .RCI · Robotaxi Confidence Index 49.7 – 0.0 .ADLCI · Autonomous Driving Licensing Confidence Index 26.1 ▲ +0.6 .ATCI · Autonomous Trucks Confidence Index 40.4 ▲ +0.3 .DCI · Delivery Bots Confidence Index 55.5 ▼ +0.5 Baidu Apollo GoCN 78.9 ▼ -1.3 WaymoUS 77.1 ▼ -0.4 Pony.aiCN 66.0 ▲ +6.8 Starship TechnologiesEE 65.9 ▼ -3.2 NeolixCN 60.7 ▼ -13.1 CocoUS 60.4 ▲ +10.7 Serve RoboticsUS 58.6 ▼ -4.0 KodiakUS 55.2 ▼ -1.1 WeRideCN 54.6 ▼ -0.2 AuroraUS 50.4 ▼ -2.2 Didi Autonomous DrivingCN 49.8 ▲ +9.8 MeituanCN 46.6 ▼ -19.8 TeslaUS 44.1 ▼ -0.5 Volvo Autonomous SolutionsSE 42.7 ▲ +7.2 Cao Cao MobilityCN 41.3 ▲ +9.7 XPengCN 39.2 ▼ -7.8 ZooxUS 38.7 ▼ -1.1 Applied IntuitionUS 37.5 ▼ -20.7 DoorDash DotUS 35.0 ▼ -1.4 DeepRoute.aiCN 34.3 ▼ -19.4 Avride PodUS 34.2 ▼ -0.7 May MobilityUS 34.0 ▲ +1.5 TorcUS 33.5 ▲ +3.5 MotionalUS 32.8 ▲ +0.4 Bot AutoUS 30.2 ▼ -8.6 AvrideUS 29.9 ▼ -0.8 WaabiCA 29.4 ▲ +1.6 MomentaCN 28.8 ▼ -18.9 MobileyeIL 28.4 ▼ -23.4 MOIA AmericaDE 28.1 ▲ +3.7 WayveGB 27.9 ▼ -4.5 VerneHR 22.6 ▼ -0.7 AutobrainsIL 22.1 – 0.0 Stack AVUS 21.9 ▼ -0.1 NuroUS 19.4 ▼ -3.1 PlusAIUS 18.9 ▲ +0.5 Helm.aiUS 17.6 ▲ +0.1 Tensor AutoUS 15.8 ▼ -8.4 HUMAINSA 2.1 – 0.0
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The Road to Autonomy
Market intelligence and analysis on the convergence of automation, autonomy, commerce, and economic growth.
Published Weekly on Sunday.
An Apple a Day Keeps the Car Away
March 3, 2024
An Apple a Day Keeps the Car Away
Apple cancelled its $10 billion, 10-year car project ("Project Titan"), reportedly due to lack of internal vision rather than capital constraints. The company missed the opportunity to integrate its closed ecosystem into automotive, while regulatory approval of Waymo's LA/Bay Area robotaxi expansion signals continued AV sector progress.
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Uber Flywheel Effect: 34% of Users are Now Multi-Service
February 25, 2024
Uber Flywheel Effect: 34% of Users are Now Multi-Service
Uber's multi-service users now represent 34% of its customer base and spend 3x more than single-service users, validating its platform flywheel strategy. High-margin advertising revenue is approaching $1B annually, while Uber One membership growth could generate $1.4B+ if scaled to full penetration.
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Vandals Set the Night on Fire
February 18, 2024
Vandals Set the Night on Fire
Waymo vehicle arson during San Francisco celebrations highlights growing hostility toward autonomous vehicles, potentially threatening the city's tech-dependent economy. Meanwhile, Aurora progresses toward 2024 autonomous trucking launch, while Qualcomm's ADAS expansion challenges Mobileye's market position.
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Apple Increases Autonomous Vehicle Testing
February 11, 2024
Apple Increases Autonomous Vehicle Testing
Apple's autonomous vehicle testing surged 262% year-over-year to 450,000 miles in California, signaling serious commitment to its vehicle program despite lagging Waymo's 4.8 million miles. Rising auto loan delinquencies (7.7% in Q4 2023) may boost Uber ridership as consumer financial health deteriorates.
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GM Remains Committed To Cruise, For Now
February 4, 2024
GM Remains Committed To Cruise, For Now
GM reaffirmed commitment to Cruise but slashed 2024 funding to $900M while exploring a potential rebrand. Aptiv is exiting Motional, leaving Hyundai's next move uncertain. Waymo reached 1 million driverless trips, signaling operational maturity as the autonomy sector consolidates toward fewer, better-capitalized players.
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Waymo On The Road to a Spin Out
January 28, 2024
Waymo On The Road to a Spin Out
Reports suggest Alphabet may spin out Waymo as it restructures its X Lab, potentially unlocking fresh capital and higher valuation. Waymo is expanding California robotaxi operations to 410 square miles across LA and Bay Area, cementing its U.S. market lead.
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Platform of the Future
January 21, 2024
Platform of the Future
Waymo continues autonomous vehicle market leadership with LA expansion application, while autonomous trucking consolidation looms around leaders Aurora and Kodiak. Key 2024 watchpoints: Daimler's Torc strategy, Waabi's fundraising valuation, SoftBank's Stack AV runway, and potential Waymo Via trucking re-entry.
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Take The Power Back
January 14, 2024
Take The Power Back
The autonomous vehicle industry faces coordinated legislative pushback from Teamsters in multiple states requiring human operators in trucks. The author argues the industry's "safety-first" messaging has backfired, allowing opponents to exploit safety concerns for restrictive regulation. Companies should pivot to economic narratives—affordability, inflation reduction, supply chain benefits—to counter union opposition and win public support amid rising consumer debt pressures.
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Enter The Dojo
January 7, 2024
Enter The Dojo
Morgan Stanley's $380 Tesla price target allocates only $86 to core auto business, with 77% based on network services, mobility, FSD licensing, energy, and insurance. Analyst sees potential AWS-style margin expansion from selling excess Dojo supercomputer capacity, though Tesla currently holds 55% US EV market share.
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Driving the Tango in Buenos Aires
December 31, 2023
Driving the Tango in Buenos Aires
Argentina's President Milei proposed legislation explicitly authorizing autonomous vehicles for private, passenger, and cargo use, signaling the country's interest in AV technology for economic modernization. The article argues 2024 marks a shift toward commercialization, with autonomous vehicle and truck industries diverging to focus on their distinct business cases ahead of potential 2025-2026 IPOs.
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The Sun is Shining, The Ride is Autonomous
December 24, 2023
The Sun is Shining, The Ride is Autonomous
May Mobility launched fully autonomous operations in Sun City, Arizona, reviving a master-planned community business model. Waymo reported 85% fewer injury-causing crashes versus human drivers, while U.S. military contracts for autonomous vehicles continue expanding across land and maritime applications.
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700,000 Trips and Counting
December 17, 2023
700,000 Trips and Counting
Waymo completed over 700,000 autonomous rides in 2023, approaching 1 million annualized trips and establishing clear market leadership in commercial robotaxi operations. Alphabet is expected to provide more business guidance on Waymo in 2024 as the unit scales operations into additional cities.
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The Future is Bright. The Future is Autonomous. The Future is The Autonomy Economy.