Live · The Road to Autonomy Indices
.RCI · Robotaxi Confidence Index 56.2 ▲ +0.3 .ADLCI · Autonomous Driving Licensing Confidence Index 40.3 ▲ +0.3 .ATCI · Autonomous Trucks Confidence Index 39.6 – 0.0 .DCI · Delivery Bots Confidence Index 52.0 ▲ +0.1 WaymoUS 85.6 ▲ +6.0 Baidu Apollo GoCN 79.5 ▲ +1.5 WeRideCN 76.7 ▲ +8.1 Starship TechnologiesEE 66.0 ▼ -1.4 Pony.aiCN 64.0 ▲ +3.5 TeslaUS 60.5 ▲ +16.1 Serve RoboticsUS 58.6 ▲ +6.3 AuroraUS 56.7 ▲ +4.9 NeolixCN 55.9 ▼ -0.6 MomentaCN 52.2 ▲ +11.8 CocoUS 51.8 ▲ +2.2 Didi Autonomous DrivingCN 51.2 ▲ +8.3 KodiakUS 50.5 ▼ -0.8 XPengCN 50.3 ▲ +18.0 Applied IntuitionUS 49.1 ▲ +7.6 DeepRoute.aiCN 48.5 ▲ +16.4 Cao Cao MobilityCN 46.8 ▼ -0.2 MobileyeIL 43.2 ▲ +13.9 DoorDash DotUS 43.0 ▲ +1.6 MeituanCN 41.5 ▼ -3.9 ZooxUS 40.4 ▲ +2.1 AvrideUS 38.5 ▲ +4.6 Volvo Autonomous SolutionsSE 38.4 ▼ -1.4 Bot AutoUS 36.9 ▼ -3.0 Avride PodUS 34.7 ▼ -0.1 May MobilityUS 34.5 ▲ +1.0 MotionalUS 34.0 ▼ -1.1 WaabiCA 32.7 ▲ +1.4 WayveGB 29.6 ▲ +2.3 TorcUS 28.0 ▼ -2.7 Tensor AutoUS 26.2 ▲ +6.5 MOIA AmericaDE 25.6 ▲ +1.1 VerneHR 24.5 ▼ -1.5 AutobrainsIL 21.6 ▼ -0.5 NuroUS 20.2 ▼ -0.9 Stack AVUS 19.4 ▼ -1.9 Helm.aiUS 19.3 ▲ +1.8 PlusAIUS 17.7 ▼ -2.1 HUMAINSA 2.7 ▲ +0.6 .RCI · Robotaxi Confidence Index 56.2 ▲ +0.3 .ADLCI · Autonomous Driving Licensing Confidence Index 40.3 ▲ +0.3 .ATCI · Autonomous Trucks Confidence Index 39.6 – 0.0 .DCI · Delivery Bots Confidence Index 52.0 ▲ +0.1 WaymoUS 85.6 ▲ +6.0 Baidu Apollo GoCN 79.5 ▲ +1.5 WeRideCN 76.7 ▲ +8.1 Starship TechnologiesEE 66.0 ▼ -1.4 Pony.aiCN 64.0 ▲ +3.5 TeslaUS 60.5 ▲ +16.1 Serve RoboticsUS 58.6 ▲ +6.3 AuroraUS 56.7 ▲ +4.9 NeolixCN 55.9 ▼ -0.6 MomentaCN 52.2 ▲ +11.8 CocoUS 51.8 ▲ +2.2 Didi Autonomous DrivingCN 51.2 ▲ +8.3 KodiakUS 50.5 ▼ -0.8 XPengCN 50.3 ▲ +18.0 Applied IntuitionUS 49.1 ▲ +7.6 DeepRoute.aiCN 48.5 ▲ +16.4 Cao Cao MobilityCN 46.8 ▼ -0.2 MobileyeIL 43.2 ▲ +13.9 DoorDash DotUS 43.0 ▲ +1.6 MeituanCN 41.5 ▼ -3.9 ZooxUS 40.4 ▲ +2.1 AvrideUS 38.5 ▲ +4.6 Volvo Autonomous SolutionsSE 38.4 ▼ -1.4 Bot AutoUS 36.9 ▼ -3.0 Avride PodUS 34.7 ▼ -0.1 May MobilityUS 34.5 ▲ +1.0 MotionalUS 34.0 ▼ -1.1 WaabiCA 32.7 ▲ +1.4 WayveGB 29.6 ▲ +2.3 TorcUS 28.0 ▼ -2.7 Tensor AutoUS 26.2 ▲ +6.5 MOIA AmericaDE 25.6 ▲ +1.1 VerneHR 24.5 ▼ -1.5 AutobrainsIL 21.6 ▼ -0.5 NuroUS 20.2 ▼ -0.9 Stack AVUS 19.4 ▼ -1.9 Helm.aiUS 19.3 ▲ +1.8 PlusAIUS 17.7 ▼ -2.1 HUMAINSA 2.7 ▲ +0.6
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The Road to Autonomy
Market intelligence and analysis on the convergence of automation, autonomy, commerce, and economic growth.
Published Weekly on Sunday.
Zoox Is No Longer an Amazon Rounding Error
August 30, 2026
Zoox Is No Longer an Amazon Rounding Error
Zoox is operating at massive scale with substantial inventory and a complex global supply chain, resulting in a burn rate far exceeding expectations and warranting investor scrutiny. Meanwhile, Waymo is methodically building Bay Area infrastructure for sub-5-minute pickups, and Tesla is securing similar real estate assets.
100% of California’s Paid Robotaxi Rides Belong to Waymo
August 23, 2026
100% of California’s Paid Robotaxi Rides Belong to Waymo
Waymo now holds 100% of California's paid robotaxi market after regulatory approval to operate across 18 counties. Tesla's September 3 Cybercab launch in Austin marks the industry's shift from regulatory testing to scale deployment, where Tesla's manufacturing control contrasts with Waymo's reliance on partner automakers.
Uber Is the Elizabeth Taylor of the Autonomy Economy
August 9, 2026
Uber Is the Elizabeth Taylor of the Autonomy Economy
Uber's strategy of partnering with 20+ autonomous vehicle operators is showing cracks as Waymo bypasses Uber in new markets and Serve Robotics exits for DoorDash. The lesson: Uber's equity stakes don't guarantee alignment, and its demand aggregation creates a "toll tax" prompting scaled operators to build direct customer relationships.
Friends Today, Competitors Tomorrow
August 2, 2026
Friends Today, Competitors Tomorrow
Baidu is testing robotaxis in London via Uber and Freenow to bypass licensing hurdles, but aggregators face "London Bridge" risk—once AV operators secure their own permits, platform partnerships become obsolete. Waymo's vertically integrated model avoids this, while Uber hedges by shifting from platform provider to fleet owner partnering with software-only providers like Wayve.
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In 2 Years and 8 Months, Waymo Outgrew Uber
July 26, 2026
In 2 Years and 8 Months, Waymo Outgrew Uber
Waymo is ending its Uber partnership to launch independent operations in Austin and Atlanta, marking a shift as AV operators outgrow third-party platforms for direct-to-consumer models. Meanwhile, a cross-country hands-free Tesla drive validates the expanding L2+ market, which may grow as fast as L4 autonomy and fund its development.
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Not All Miles Are Created Equal
July 19, 2026
Not All Miles Are Created Equal
Uber's C-suite is publicly criticizing Waymo and defending hybrid rideshare models against fully driverless competitors, signaling deteriorating partnership relations. Analyst predicts Waymo will eventually operate exclusively in Austin and Atlanta markets, ending the current dual-platform arrangement and raising questions about market impact.
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Tesla Launches Robotaxi in Miami
July 12, 2026
Tesla Launches Robotaxi in Miami
Tesla launched robotaxi service in suburban Miami with only 2-3 vehicles initially operational, experiencing high demand and technical issues including software errors on 98% of rides. However, a staging lot near Miami airport now holds dozens of Cybercabs and Model Y robotaxis, positioning Tesla to scale and compete directly with Waymo's planned airport operations.
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Waymo’s Grand European Ambitions
July 5, 2026
Waymo’s Grand European Ambitions
Waymo registered entities in France, Spain, Netherlands, and Germany within weeks in June 2026, signaling coordinated European expansion plans. Separately, Waymo-Uber's Phoenix partnership ended, raising questions about their collaborations in Austin and Atlanta.
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Waymo’s German Expansion Started Months Before Anyone Noticed
June 28, 2026
Waymo’s German Expansion Started Months Before Anyone Noticed
Waymo's partnership with Uber appears to be ending as autonomous rides disappear from Uber's Phoenix platform after 1,100+ days. Waymo quietly established a German subsidiary months ago and is aggressively expanding into Europe, setting up direct competition with its former partner in international markets.
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The Great Butter War Comes for Autonomy
June 21, 2026
The Great Butter War Comes for Autonomy
The author launched "Road to Autonomy Indices" tracking commercial viability of AV companies across robotaxis, licensing, trucking, and delivery using six metrics refreshed bi-hourly. They argue Washington D.C.'s proposed AV regulation mirrors 1880s dairy protectionism, suggesting incumbent operators are using regulatory capture to block competition.
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China’s Autonomous European Beachhead Might Have an Expiration Date
June 14, 2026
China’s Autonomous European Beachhead Might Have an Expiration Date
EU nations are welcoming Chinese AV companies (Baidu, WeRide, Pony AI) into testbeds across roughly 25% of member states. However, the EU's precedent of retroactively banning Chinese telecom infrastructure (Huawei/ZTE) on cybersecurity grounds suggests similar regulatory reversal could eliminate this beachhead. Separately, Volvo targets Q1 2027 for removing safety drivers from commercial trucks.
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When Ferrari Says Never, They Simply Mean Not Now
June 7, 2026
When Ferrari Says Never, They Simply Mean Not Now
Ferrari denies autonomous vehicle plans, but history shows they reverse "never" positions when profit potential is clear—having previously rejected then launched SUVs and EVs. Uber aggressively expands autonomous partnerships across Europe ahead of Waymo, though strict EU regulations will determine the winner.
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The Great Pivot to L2++
May 24, 2026
The Great Pivot to L2++
Bipartisan BUILD America 250 Act creates first unified federal framework for autonomous trucks, replacing fragmented state regulations. Tesla's FSD subscriptions surged 44% QoQ to 476K users, generating $565M annual run rate, while autonomous trucking gains regulatory clarity for national scaling.
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Supervised is not Autonomous, Autonomous is not Supervised
May 10, 2026
Supervised is not Autonomous, Autonomous is not Supervised
UK political upheaval threatens Uber and Lyft's plans to deploy Chinese-made Baidu RT6 robotaxis in London. Reform UK's election gains give Nigel Farage leverage to pursue a Huawei-style ban on Chinese autonomous vehicles as national security threats, potentially disrupting both companies' UK expansion strategies.
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Truckin’ Autonomously Up to Dallas
May 3, 2026
Truckin’ Autonomously Up to Dallas
Bot Auto launched fully autonomous commercial trucking between Houston and Dallas (231 miles, no human driver), successfully navigating complex interchanges. China suspended new autonomous driving licenses after 100+ Baidu robotaxis simultaneously stopped in Wuhan, though Chinese firms continue international expansion. Tesla FSD hit 10 billion miles driven.
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Mobileye Sure Doesn’t Lack Confidence, But Can It Deliver L4?
April 26, 2026
Mobileye Sure Doesn’t Lack Confidence, But Can It Deliver L4?
Mobileye claims a unique regulatory advantage for robotaxis in Europe, but credibility is challenged by past missed deadlines and Waymo's parallel EMEA expansion. Meanwhile, Tesla's Cybercab production has begun with infrastructure permits signaling serious operational buildout beyond hardware.
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The Future is Bright. The Future is Autonomous. The Future is The Autonomy Economy.