This Week in The Autonomy Economy

Reports suggest Alphabet may spin out Waymo as it restructures its X Lab, potentially unlocking fresh capital and higher valuation. Waymo is expanding California robotaxi operations to 410 square miles across LA and Bay Area, cementing its U.S. market lead.

Waymo continues autonomous vehicle market leadership with LA expansion application, while autonomous trucking consolidation looms around leaders Aurora and Kodiak. Key 2024 watchpoints: Daimler's Torc strategy, Waabi's fundraising valuation, SoftBank's Stack AV runway, and potential Waymo Via trucking re-entry.

The autonomous vehicle industry faces coordinated legislative pushback from Teamsters in multiple states requiring human operators in trucks. The author argues the industry's "safety-first" messaging has backfired, allowing opponents to exploit safety concerns for restrictive regulation. Companies should pivot to economic narratives—affordability, inflation reduction, supply chain benefits—to counter union opposition and win public support amid rising consumer debt pressures.

Morgan Stanley's $380 Tesla price target allocates only $86 to core auto business, with 77% based on network services, mobility, FSD licensing, energy, and insurance. Analyst sees potential AWS-style margin expansion from selling excess Dojo supercomputer capacity, though Tesla currently holds 55% US EV market share.

Argentina's President Milei proposed legislation explicitly authorizing autonomous vehicles for private, passenger, and cargo use, signaling the country's interest in AV technology for economic modernization. The article argues 2024 marks a shift toward commercialization, with autonomous vehicle and truck industries diverging to focus on their distinct business cases ahead of potential 2025-2026 IPOs.

May Mobility launched fully autonomous operations in Sun City, Arizona, reviving a master-planned community business model. Waymo reported 85% fewer injury-causing crashes versus human drivers, while U.S. military contracts for autonomous vehicles continue expanding across land and maritime applications.

Waymo completed over 700,000 autonomous rides in 2023, approaching 1 million annualized trips and establishing clear market leadership in commercial robotaxi operations. Alphabet is expected to provide more business guidance on Waymo in 2024 as the unit scales operations into additional cities.

Uber's S&P 500 inclusion on December 18th shifts it from discretionary to mandatory holding for passive funds, driving structural demand at its $126B market cap. Dutch PM Rutte's Waymo ride in Phoenix provides international political validation for autonomous vehicle technology, while investor skepticism persists around GM's Cruise unit, now valued at zero by Morgan Stanley.