The Road to Autonomy
Market intelligence and analysis on the convergence of automation, autonomy, commerce, and economic growth.
Published Weekly on Sunday.
Published Weekly on Sunday.
May 12, 2024
Wayve Catches a Billion Dollar Wave
Wayve raised $1B in Series C funding led by SoftBank, with Microsoft and NVIDIA participating. Meanwhile, Waymo is now conducting 50,000 paid trips weekly across three cities, generating an estimated $500K-$1M in weekly revenue as it tests a new sensor suite with potentially improved unit economics.
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May 5, 2024
Zoox an Amazon Prime Robo-Casino?
Zoox may launch robotaxi service in Las Vegas, potentially as entertainment/casino transport or integrated into Amazon Prime membership. Aptiv slashed its Motional stake from 50% to 15%, with Hyundai injecting $475M to stabilize the struggling AV joint venture—funds unlikely to last long-term.
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April 28, 2024
The Tesla Effect
Tesla's planned ride-hailing platform triggered investor concerns about Uber, but the US/Canada ridesharing TAM is projected to reach $300B by 2029, growing at 7% CAGR. The market is large enough to support multiple players as penetration remains around 20%.
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April 21, 2024
AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD
The Road to Autonomy introduces a quarterly leaderboard ranking autonomous vehicle companies, with Waymo (Alphabet) ranked #1 due to its 673-mile operational design domain and multi-state commercial operations, followed by Zoox (Amazon) at #2. The author urges both parent companies to disclose business metrics and clarify commercialization strategies.
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April 14, 2024
On The Road Again
Cruise is resuming autonomous vehicle testing with safety drivers, pivoting from California to Arizona's more permissive regulatory environment. Waymo is expanding commercial operations in California despite potential regulatory headwinds, while broader industry deployment continues with companies like Walmart adopting autonomous forklifts.
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April 7, 2024
Going Fully Autonomous in Texas
Aurora and Kodiak will launch paid autonomous trucking operations on Texas public roads later this year, marking commercialization of the autonomy economy. Texas moved 3.4 billion tons of freight worth $3.1 trillion in 2022, with truck freight expected to grow 92% by value through 2050.
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March 31, 2024
Tesla Ushers in AV 2.0 Era
Tesla's FSD 12 uses end-to-end neural networks instead of human coding, potentially enabling autonomous driving at lower cost than robo-taxi competitors. Q1 autonomy sector index returned 11.80%, outperforming S&P 500 and Nasdaq, while 51% of CFOs surveyed implemented automation technology.
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March 24, 2024
Japan is Preparing for The Autonomy Economy
Japan is addressing its aging population and driver shortage by investing in autonomous vehicle technology, with Mitsubishi Corp backing startup TIER IV. The country views autonomy as essential infrastructure for managing demographic challenges and maintaining economic productivity.
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March 17, 2024
A Week of OEM Deals
TRATON GROUP partnered with Plus for autonomous truck deployment in Europe and the U.S., with commercial pilots starting in 2024. Separately, Forterra and Kalmar announced a joint development agreement for autonomous terminal tractors to address an estimated 85 million global worker shortage by 2030.
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March 10, 2024
Driver Shortages in Japan are Ushering in The Autonomy Economy
Japan faces a 14% trucking capacity shortfall in 2024 rising to 34% by 2030 due to aging drivers and new overtime restrictions. With drivers averaging 47.7 years old and only 8.6% under 29, the crisis will worsen as retirements accelerate and younger workers avoid the sector.
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March 3, 2024
An Apple a Day Keeps the Car Away
Apple cancelled its $10 billion, 10-year car project ("Project Titan"), reportedly due to lack of internal vision rather than capital constraints. The company missed the opportunity to integrate its closed ecosystem into automotive, while regulatory approval of Waymo's LA/Bay Area robotaxi expansion signals continued AV sector progress.
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February 25, 2024
Uber Flywheel Effect: 34% of Users are Now Multi-Service
Uber's multi-service users now represent 34% of its customer base and spend 3x more than single-service users, validating its platform flywheel strategy. High-margin advertising revenue is approaching $1B annually, while Uber One membership growth could generate $1.4B+ if scaled to full penetration.
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The Future is Bright. The Future is Autonomous. The Future is The Autonomy Economy.









