Live · The Road to Autonomy Indices
.RCI · Robotaxi Confidence Index 49.3 ▲ +0.2 .ADLCI · Autonomous Driving Licensing Confidence Index 40.7 – 0.0 .ATCI · Autonomous Trucks Confidence Index 40.8 ▲ +0.1 .DCI · Delivery Bots Confidence Index 53.6 ▼ +0.3 WaymoUS 76.9 ▼ -2.2 Baidu Apollo GoCN 76.6 ▲ +0.8 Starship TechnologiesEE 68.4 ▼ -3.0 Serve RoboticsUS 62.7 ▼ -9.7 Applied IntuitionUS 59.7 ▲ +14.3 Pony.aiCN 58.7 ▼ -3.6 AuroraUS 58.0 ▲ +20.2 WeRideCN 56.2 ▼ -5.2 NeolixCN 56.1 ▼ -18.5 KodiakUS 54.3 ▲ +8.7 MeituanCN 53.6 ▲ +20.8 Didi Autonomous DrivingCN 52.2 ▲ +28.2 DeepRoute.aiCN 50.8 ▲ +9.4 TeslaUS 46.6 ▲ +3.6 MobileyeIL 44.4 ▲ +16.1 CocoUS 43.9 ▲ +1.0 Avride PodUS 40.1 ▲ +0.7 Bot AutoUS 37.5 ▼ -1.2 MomentaCN 37.1 ▼ -2.9 XPengCN 35.7 ▲ +8.5 Volvo Autonomous SolutionsSE 35.7 ▲ +3.8 ZooxUS 35.2 ▼ -10.9 TorcUS 34.5 ▲ +7.2 MotionalUS 33.0 ▲ +0.8 May MobilityUS 32.7 ▼ -0.6 WaabiCA 31.7 ▲ +8.0 AvrideUS 31.2 ▼ -3.2 Cao Cao MobilityCN 30.7 ▲ +3.3 DoorDash DotUS 29.4 ▼ -9.7 WayveGB 28.6 ▲ +2.6 VerneHR 24.5 ▲ +0.4 MOIA AmericaDE 24.4 ▲ +2.6 NuroUS 22.8 ▲ +3.4 Stack AVUS 22.4 ▲ +5.2 AutobrainsIL 21.9 ▲ +0.3 Tensor AutoUS 20.9 ▲ +14.8 PlusAIUS 18.5 ▲ +4.0 Helm.aiUS 18.2 ▲ +0.4 HUMAINSA 2.1 – 0.0 .RCI · Robotaxi Confidence Index 49.3 ▲ +0.2 .ADLCI · Autonomous Driving Licensing Confidence Index 40.7 – 0.0 .ATCI · Autonomous Trucks Confidence Index 40.8 ▲ +0.1 .DCI · Delivery Bots Confidence Index 53.6 ▼ +0.3 WaymoUS 76.9 ▼ -2.2 Baidu Apollo GoCN 76.6 ▲ +0.8 Starship TechnologiesEE 68.4 ▼ -3.0 Serve RoboticsUS 62.7 ▼ -9.7 Applied IntuitionUS 59.7 ▲ +14.3 Pony.aiCN 58.7 ▼ -3.6 AuroraUS 58.0 ▲ +20.2 WeRideCN 56.2 ▼ -5.2 NeolixCN 56.1 ▼ -18.5 KodiakUS 54.3 ▲ +8.7 MeituanCN 53.6 ▲ +20.8 Didi Autonomous DrivingCN 52.2 ▲ +28.2 DeepRoute.aiCN 50.8 ▲ +9.4 TeslaUS 46.6 ▲ +3.6 MobileyeIL 44.4 ▲ +16.1 CocoUS 43.9 ▲ +1.0 Avride PodUS 40.1 ▲ +0.7 Bot AutoUS 37.5 ▼ -1.2 MomentaCN 37.1 ▼ -2.9 XPengCN 35.7 ▲ +8.5 Volvo Autonomous SolutionsSE 35.7 ▲ +3.8 ZooxUS 35.2 ▼ -10.9 TorcUS 34.5 ▲ +7.2 MotionalUS 33.0 ▲ +0.8 May MobilityUS 32.7 ▼ -0.6 WaabiCA 31.7 ▲ +8.0 AvrideUS 31.2 ▼ -3.2 Cao Cao MobilityCN 30.7 ▲ +3.3 DoorDash DotUS 29.4 ▼ -9.7 WayveGB 28.6 ▲ +2.6 VerneHR 24.5 ▲ +0.4 MOIA AmericaDE 24.4 ▲ +2.6 NuroUS 22.8 ▲ +3.4 Stack AVUS 22.4 ▲ +5.2 AutobrainsIL 21.9 ▲ +0.3 Tensor AutoUS 20.9 ▲ +14.8 PlusAIUS 18.5 ▲ +4.0 Helm.aiUS 18.2 ▲ +0.4 HUMAINSA 2.1 – 0.0
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The Road to Autonomy
Market intelligence and analysis on the convergence of automation, autonomy, commerce, and economic growth.
Published Weekly on Sunday.
Wayve Catches a Billion Dollar Wave
May 12, 2024
Wayve Catches a Billion Dollar Wave
Wayve raised $1B in Series C funding led by SoftBank, with Microsoft and NVIDIA participating. Meanwhile, Waymo is now conducting 50,000 paid trips weekly across three cities, generating an estimated $500K-$1M in weekly revenue as it tests a new sensor suite with potentially improved unit economics.
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Zoox an Amazon Prime Robo-Casino?
May 5, 2024
Zoox an Amazon Prime Robo-Casino?
Zoox may launch robotaxi service in Las Vegas, potentially as entertainment/casino transport or integrated into Amazon Prime membership. Aptiv slashed its Motional stake from 50% to 15%, with Hyundai injecting $475M to stabilize the struggling AV joint venture—funds unlikely to last long-term.
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The Tesla Effect
April 28, 2024
The Tesla Effect
Tesla's planned ride-hailing platform triggered investor concerns about Uber, but the US/Canada ridesharing TAM is projected to reach $300B by 2029, growing at 7% CAGR. The market is large enough to support multiple players as penetration remains around 20%.
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AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD
April 21, 2024
AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD
The Road to Autonomy introduces a quarterly leaderboard ranking autonomous vehicle companies, with Waymo (Alphabet) ranked #1 due to its 673-mile operational design domain and multi-state commercial operations, followed by Zoox (Amazon) at #2. The author urges both parent companies to disclose business metrics and clarify commercialization strategies.
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On The Road Again
April 14, 2024
On The Road Again
Cruise is resuming autonomous vehicle testing with safety drivers, pivoting from California to Arizona's more permissive regulatory environment. Waymo is expanding commercial operations in California despite potential regulatory headwinds, while broader industry deployment continues with companies like Walmart adopting autonomous forklifts.
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Going Fully Autonomous in Texas
April 7, 2024
Going Fully Autonomous in Texas
Aurora and Kodiak will launch paid autonomous trucking operations on Texas public roads later this year, marking commercialization of the autonomy economy. Texas moved 3.4 billion tons of freight worth $3.1 trillion in 2022, with truck freight expected to grow 92% by value through 2050.
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Tesla Ushers in AV 2.0 Era
March 31, 2024
Tesla Ushers in AV 2.0 Era
Tesla's FSD 12 uses end-to-end neural networks instead of human coding, potentially enabling autonomous driving at lower cost than robo-taxi competitors. Q1 autonomy sector index returned 11.80%, outperforming S&P 500 and Nasdaq, while 51% of CFOs surveyed implemented automation technology.
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Japan is Preparing for The Autonomy Economy
March 24, 2024
Japan is Preparing for The Autonomy Economy
Japan is addressing its aging population and driver shortage by investing in autonomous vehicle technology, with Mitsubishi Corp backing startup TIER IV. The country views autonomy as essential infrastructure for managing demographic challenges and maintaining economic productivity.
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A Week of OEM Deals
March 17, 2024
A Week of OEM Deals
TRATON GROUP partnered with Plus for autonomous truck deployment in Europe and the U.S., with commercial pilots starting in 2024. Separately, Forterra and Kalmar announced a joint development agreement for autonomous terminal tractors to address an estimated 85 million global worker shortage by 2030.
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Driver Shortages in Japan are Ushering in The Autonomy Economy
March 10, 2024
Driver Shortages in Japan are Ushering in The Autonomy Economy
Japan faces a 14% trucking capacity shortfall in 2024 rising to 34% by 2030 due to aging drivers and new overtime restrictions. With drivers averaging 47.7 years old and only 8.6% under 29, the crisis will worsen as retirements accelerate and younger workers avoid the sector.
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An Apple a Day Keeps the Car Away
March 3, 2024
An Apple a Day Keeps the Car Away
Apple cancelled its $10 billion, 10-year car project ("Project Titan"), reportedly due to lack of internal vision rather than capital constraints. The company missed the opportunity to integrate its closed ecosystem into automotive, while regulatory approval of Waymo's LA/Bay Area robotaxi expansion signals continued AV sector progress.
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Uber Flywheel Effect: 34% of Users are Now Multi-Service
February 25, 2024
Uber Flywheel Effect: 34% of Users are Now Multi-Service
Uber's multi-service users now represent 34% of its customer base and spend 3x more than single-service users, validating its platform flywheel strategy. High-margin advertising revenue is approaching $1B annually, while Uber One membership growth could generate $1.4B+ if scaled to full penetration.
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The Future is Bright. The Future is Autonomous. The Future is The Autonomy Economy.