Transcript: Tesla & Alphabet Earnings, Zoox Limited Rides in Vegas, Scaling Robotaxi

Executive Summary

This week’s episode of Autonomy Markets we dissect the market’s reaction to Tesla’s Q2 2025 earnings, where a 9% stock drop followed a lack of new robotaxi details. We also investigate Zoox’s new “early rider” program in Las Vegas, discovering it’s a limited, concierge-led ride between two hotels, raising questions about its progress. The conversation then pivots to the broader challenge of scaling robotaxi services, comparing Tesla’s potential speed with Waymo’s infrastructure needs and breaking down the latest developments in autonomous trucking with PACCAR, Aurora and Bot Auto.

Key Topics & Timestamps

[00:00] Tesla’s Post-Earnings Stock Drop

he discussion opens with Tesla’s stock dropping 9% following its earnings report. The drop is attributed to a lack of new, exciting details about its robotaxi and Optimus programs, as well as comments from Elon Musk about potential “rough quarters ahead,” partly due to the removal of the $7,500 federal subsidy in the U.S.

[09:00] Tesla’s Potential Las Vegas Expansion

It was reported and confirmed by the Nevada Department of Motor Vehicles that Tesla is exploring an expansion of its robotaxi service to Las Vegas. This is seen as a logical next step, potentially leveraging the existing Boring Company tunnel, though it’s noted that union rules in Nevada currently require a human driver in the tunnel.

[11:00] Zoox Launches Limited Las Vegas Service

An investigation into Zoox’s new “early rider” program in Las Vegas reveals it is a highly limited service. The service operates from 11 AM to 1 AM and runs on a fixed 45-minute roundtrip route between the Resort World and Luxor hotels. Riders cannot use an app; instead, a concierge checks them in and launches the vehicle, leading to the service being described as a “Las Vegas Disneyland ride”.

[18:00] Prediction: Tesla vs. Zoox in Las Vegas

Despite Zoox having started testing in Las Vegas in 2019, the prediction is made that Tesla will be the first to launch a paid commercial robotaxi service in the city, even if it includes a safety attendant. It is believed that Amazon investors are not paying close attention to Zoox’s progress, so there is little external pressure on the company to accelerate its commercialization timeline.

[21:00] Tesla’s Advantages in Scaling Robotaxis

Tesla is positioned to scale its robotaxi service very quickly once the technology is proven safe. Unlike competitors such as Waymo, Tesla does not need to acquire vehicles, outfit them with complex sensors like lidar, or build out a charging network from scratch. This lower-maintenance, camera-based approach and existing infrastructure are seen as key advantages for rapid expansion

[28:00] Volkswagen’s Autonomous Division Struggles

News from Germany indicates that Volkswagen’s CEO is trying to raise money from third-party investors for its in-house autonomous driving division, ADMT. VW has a long, troubled history with autonomous technology, including failed partnerships with companies like Argo and an inability to bring a product to market.

[32:00] Alphabet Reaffirms Waymo Investment

During Alphabet’s Q2 2025 earnings call, the CFO stated that the company would commit more resources to its “Other Bets,” which includes Waymo. However, this was viewed as a generic, “throwaway comment” that offered no new details or specific information on Waymo’s progress or future plans.

[34:00] Autonomous Trucking Updates

In the autonomous trucking sector, Bot Auto announced a new partnership to provide autonomous service for Steves and Sons through JB Hunt, marking a significant step of securing a paying customer. In contrast, the CEO of PACCAR explained his company’s cautious approach with its partner, Aurora, stating that safety is paramount and that he wants to see the technology become “fully production, validated, completed production” before approving the removal of the safety driver.

Watch the Full Episode of Autonomy Markets

Full Episode Transcript

Grayson Brulte: Walt, there’s been no slow down the autonomy markets this summer, especially during earnings week while you put on your Aurora sleuth hat and joined the PACCAR earnings call. I put on my Inspector Kau hat and I called Zoox. That’s right. I did call Zoox and I took a closer look at Tesla sensors during an Uber ride. I learned something, but Walt, let’s first start with Tesla earnings. I saw the stock drop 9% on the earnings. What happened? Did, did Optimist take over the robotaxi program? What happened? 

Walter Piecyk: It’s always curious like what impacts stocks on a given day. Some will talk about one sentence fragment that Elon, who talks a lot and depends on his mood, uh, or what he wants to talk about during that quarter. That could vary, um, about a lot of different topics, but mention perhaps some rough quarters ahead. As you know, this $7,500 subsidy in the United States is getting removed. Um, but I mean, it’s kind of odd though if you think about it to, to, you know, maybe focus and who knows what the quarter was on. Why it was down. , But the, you know, the real value in this thing obviously is gonna occur over the next 10 years in terms of what happens with robotaxi, what happens with Optimus. And maybe there just wasn’t enough new information or new details around what they were doing there, to get people excited following the quarter. I think there was some hope that maybe there was, they would play up a little bit more of the progress and next catalyst to expect in terms of robotaxis.

Grayson Brulte: What are the exact details investors are looking for? robotaxi. Is it, is it rides? Is it miles? Is it, or as you alluded to, is it expansion? What are investors looking for? 

Walter Piecyk: mean, there was some reference expansion, expansion. They talked about San Francisco, but they’re gonna put a driver in, for San Francisco, not because of the performance of the technology, because of the California regulatory environment that, that, you know so well. But to answer your question, Grayson. I think what the next big catalyst for them is gonna be to take that safety attendant out of the car and just gives more, you know, kind of confidence that of what, where they see, the market being, or in terms of the technology being and, and obviously expanding to additional markets. But I think the bigger one at this point is, is taking that safety at attend out.

Grayson Brulte: Do you have any thoughts on, based on our experience that we had in Austin, when that a safety attendant might potentially be removed from the vehicle or some of the vehicles mean perhaps mixed fleet.

Walter Piecyk: There’s a lot of other questions that were getting addressed in the call, so I don’t think they really talked about that at all . you know, there was this kind of reiteration of doing or making robotaxi available to half the US population. By the end of the year. You know, I would guess that most investors think of that as more of aspirational or, you know, a goal that Elon likes to set out there to try trying to challenge his people. But I don’t know, like what do you, what are your thoughts? I mean, we both felt like it was ready, but you can’t really know.

Grayson Brulte: I think the biggest issue, and I’m going back to what Mr. Musk has said about safety, is I’m worried about a bad actor getting in the vehicle and trying to do something to cause damage to create headlines. To me, that is a huge risk that hasn’t really been discussed enough.

Walter Piecyk: That’s always gonna be a risk. At some point, you’re gonna have to rip that bandaid off though and take that attendant out. Or maybe move the attendant to the backseat. Um, you know, and have the, have the riders go to the front seat, something.

Grayson Brulte: And I know this sounds crazy, but just hear me out. Or do they wait to remove the attendent until cyber cab can legally operate because there is no wheel.

Walter Piecyk: to your point, a bad actor can do a number of different things. I think if you went back to our video of our experience in Austin, our belief was, again, a guess. We don’t know that the safety attendance, when his hand was on that, you know, door open button. That, that would probably take the, shut the car down or at least have it, you know, go to the side of the road. So to your point, like if there’s no wheel in there, then you know, and the person tries to jump outta the car, do something crazy like that. There’s obviously other things that can be done, but the problem with that gray is I don’t wanna wait until a car doesn’t have a wheel in it before we see no safety attendant in this car. So I, I think at some point you just have to, to move forward. And I think you can’t just always be worried about. Um, the bad actors, and I think, look, maybe we’ll see over time as more and more people, you know, get in the car and they expand the friendly users or however you want to call it, um, the beta testing of the, of the users, that’ll get them closer to a point where they’re, they’ll feel more, more comfortable with taking that safety attendant out.

Grayson Brulte: Do you think that as more people try FSD and was really interesting on the call they mentioned that? Less than 50% have actually tried FSD, that that can potentially lead to an acceleration removing the attendent. People are more comfortable with that technology.

Walter Piecyk: I think those are there. Those are really two different issues. Right? What you’re referring to is something that can potentially drive revenue for the company with the existing. Tesla owners that are out there. , And the, and the stat was specifically that 50 50% of people that own a Tesla that is capable of FSD haven’t even tried it once. Now they have already seen an increase in FSD adoption, but there’s a huge market opportunity for them to get it. And they, and they should be drivers like me, that many listeners will say, like, what I’m about to describe is just adas, which is that I get in the car. And I have FSD drive every time. Why? Because it’s a better drive than I have, and it’s a safer ride. And yes, I am paying attention, um, in terms of the safety. And they did give stats in terms of the safety between that type of riding and someone that doesn’t use FSD from their own drivers, uh, of Teslas. But I will say that when I picked up my new, uh, Tesla Y , there was no, like, you know, from the, the salespeople that were basically handing the car off to me. If there was no training or pushing or saying, Hey, you should try this out, um, there was no popup on the screen saying like, you know, here’s the way you, you activate FSD. It was a, a lost opportunity where they had a touch point with a customer. Granted, I’m an existing Y customer, but a, every time someone steps in that store, they should be pushing or at least showing the benefits of FSD and preaching that, and I think, at least in my case, of picking up the car that wasn’t done. So I think there’s some. You know, some better execution that they can do within the dealership, or not the dealership, but the, uh, where you pick up the car to help in that process.

Grayson Brulte: Delivery center. How great would it be? You know this, you buy a a Sony TV or buy a Vizio tv or you buy the Android tv. It has the popup with all their software. How great would be when you get your Tesla welcome, new Tesla owner. Would you like to try FSD popup on the software screen that could potentially increase adoption? 

Walter Piecyk: I mean, any new app that I ever download on my iPhone always has those initial tutorials, which are. Sometimes annoying. Look, at some point when we get to, if the car is delivered to you autonomously, that will also obviously advertise to the customer that this FSD, um, exists. So I think there’s, you know, there’s wood to chop there, there’s better execution. I’d also say on the call when they were asked about driver out and a lot of these things, the emphasis of like, you know, we want to be safe. We wanna be safe. I wish I should do probably a word count. On, you know, this safety issue because again, this is stuff I’ve taught you about many times on this podcast where I think that there’s a greater safety of culture at Tesla than I think a lot of people give them credit for. Does that mean that this is definitively the most safe thing and that there’s not risk and that they’re not gonna be an accident? Of course not. Like I’m still concerned about that. We’re evaluating this on a daily basis, but, , from my experience with SpaceX. Before, you know, I just think that they get criticized perhaps too much with their views towards safety. So you can’t say like, Hey, you’re, you know, criticize them for keeping that, you know, the driver, attendant in and then say they’re not safe. Like, pick your criticism of how you wanna attack this company.

Grayson Brulte: I’ll say from an owner of a Tesla, I’m more comfortable and I feel safer using FSD than I do driving as a human. And there’s been well documented other people feel that way. It’s truly a safe product, and yes, there will be instances at some point, but I truly believe it is a safe product.

Walter Piecyk: Right. So look, as far as the stock is concerned, you know, again, this, this is ultimately gonna become a story stock based on. Whatever the next catalyst is. And in this case, the catalyst was perhaps an earnings call where there wasn’t enough attention plate to new information. I mean, if from a technology standpoint, uh, Grayson, like what type of safety stats would you like to start getting on a regular basis from a company like this that you think would help? Um, you know, ’cause when Tesla reports, obviously this gets blast across plenty of, of, uh, mainstream news, news channels.

Grayson Brulte: I’ll say something very controversial, Walt. I don’t want safety numbers. I want vehicle numbers. I want miles driven, and I want revenue numbers. To me, the safety’s inherited and it shouldn’t really be touted.

Walter Piecyk: Okay. I mean, I, I, I feel like they should continue to, to, you know, to provide that data, to provide those of us that, you know, are, believe the autonomy industry is economy changing, can use as evidence. ’cause this is, you know, obviously a concern. Especially as it relates to Tesla that we constantly get from investors and just, you know, industry watchers about, you know, are their cars safe or not? It’s the number one, it’s the number one issue I deal with on a daily basis.

Grayson Brulte: I could see a point. Or the Tesla policy team gives all that safety data to, to, to regulators on an ongoing basis to build a trust with regulators. I think that the trust is building just the way that FSD is used. So I’m not really worried about those metrics on the call or yes, is it nice if Tesla publishes it? Yes, it’s nice, but to me it’s not a defining factor where this is going.

Walter Piecyk: We can agree to disagree on that one. I want more disclosure, but what else did we learn about Tesla this week? 

Grayson Brulte: you want disclosure and I want headlines and, and, and Bloomberg gave us a headline this week, and it was confirmed by the Nevada Department of Transportation, the Nevada Department of Motor Vehicles, that Tesla is looking to expand to Nevada with robotaxi, great regulatory environment. Obviously a lot of demand there if they were gonna do it in Las Vegas and Tesla has a presence in the state, in the Reno area. What are your thoughts on the potential of Tesla expanding robotaxi to. Las Vegas.

Walter Piecyk: I go to Las Vegas at least once every year for our big CES event that we do. , So I love the fact that now we have Nuro with stuff to see there. I think Zoox we’ll get into in a little bit . getting a Tesla Robotaxis in, in Vegas, uh, would be, would also be great. I mean, look, they, they already have the tunnel, right, where they have people driving those cars, so it’s pretty obvious that, that that should be the initial transition. Um, to be driver out is, is, you know, going through the, uh, the boring tunnel that that exists there. But certainly the, the robotaxis can do far more than just running through a dedicated tunnel.

Grayson Brulte: But, Walt, this after all is Nevada. There’s a thing called unions. You cannot legally operate in a tunnel without a human behind the wheel. But you can operate on the roadway, 

Walter Piecyk: so you could operate on the roadway without a driver, but not in a tunnel, so, and Okay. Does a national framework help us to get through that? Possibly.

Grayson Brulte: potentially depending on how the framework is drafted and the, and the language using that. Yes, but it’s Vegas and things are different after all.

Walter Piecyk: Okay, well, Elon can also be a very large employer in your state. Um, so maybe you want to reconsider some of these laws.

Grayson Brulte: They should reconsider and, and I’m gonna stand the reconsideration and I’m going through x and I, I literally fell outta my chair. Zoox puts up a very public post that says, now calling early riders to ride. And they put up a phone number. So Elle here, I put on my magical Zoox mobile hat and I called 1-888-477-FIVE 0 5 5. Boy, oh boy. They told me a lot. I learned the following about Zoox operation in Las Vegas. I, when I asked about the number of vehicles, I said, sir, how many vehicles? Well, we have enough. I said, do I have to wait? He, he wouldn’t tell me the number, exact number, but he said, you won’t have to wait. Okay. That I, I question. Then I found out the hours of operation are from 11:00 AM to 1:00 AM local Vegas time. You do not get to use the Zoox app. That was kind of surprising. You, you check in at a concierge desk and that individual walks you to the robotaxi, launches the robotaxi. So I said, oh, this is great. Where can I go in the Zoox Mobile? He said, Luxor. I said, okay. I’m, uh, what else can I go? He goes, no, that’s it. So it goes from Resort World to the Luxor and back. It’s a 45 minute round trip. I said, okay, where, where else can I go? Well, you can’t do that. This is how it works . and then I said, well, okay, well how do the vehicles run? Do they run, , on the side streets? Do they run down the strip? He goes, no. They go down the strip and I go, what happens when I get to the Luxor? He goes, you get outta the vehicle and the next concierge attendant will launch the vehicle to send you back home. I said, so what’s the purpose of this? He’s like, well, it’s to introduce people to technology. Well, companies were doing this 6, 7, 8 years ago for employees from destination Destination. I know I criticize Zoox a lot, but this just seems like a Las Vegas Disneyland ride. What do you think? 

Walter Piecyk: first of all, I’ve got some questions to break down here. Um, when you said you don’t need a Zoox app, is there a Zoox app that exists today that you’re aware of? I mean, in this case, I know there you’re not gonna be using one, but is there one that you know of? 

Grayson Brulte: So let’s go way back and Tim Kenley Kleer. I know you listen, I’ll let that live at that. Tim Kenley Clay was the co-founder of Zoox along with Jesse Levinson. Uh, Tim and Jesse hosted me years and years ago at Slack at Stanford, the accelerator. Where I went and they, it was called the Sled, and I got to play with a prototype Zoox app to hail it. So yes, there is a Zoox app, but you as an early rider cannot use that app.

Walter Piecyk: Okay. So I would think though that, or I would hope at least given that, you know, Zoox is in San Francisco, I guess to a certain extent, um, that they’d be developing an app. So let’s just assume that some version of an app exists. Clearly, you don’t need a complex app if you’re going from point A, point A to point B. So my second question is, is the way this person described it to you. Like the, the concierge is gonna have to go in there and, and as you would say, BTY, bty, boop, hit some buttons to send it back, or is that person gonna have their own app that they’re sending this car back and forth? Was that clear or was that unclear from your discussion? 

Grayson Brulte: It was very unclear the way that it was described to me. The concierge individual will walk you to the vehicle and launch you, whether you hit the button inside the zoox vehicle or they hit an app button, uncertain.

Walter Piecyk: I know that’s a finer detail and, and who really cares. But having that human there to, to do that seems odd. My third observation is not to sound too elitist, but like Luxor Resorts are probably not two of my primary destinations. I’d have to think about, , the Strip and whether they’re closer to, to other locations. . Seems like an odd thing in that they wouldn’t make a stop along the way. , Any sense on why they picked those two, or, or is your knowledge of the strip such that it makes rea It makes, it’s a good reason for having those two locations.

Grayson Brulte: Unfortunately, my knowledge of this trip is vast, and I say unfortunately, on that front it is. One end of the strip is Resort World managed by Hilton going to Luxor, which is managed by MGM. So I don’t understand that combination there from a corporate standpoint, but it’s from one end of the strip to the other, essentially, is what it is to me. It’s a Disneyland ride. Think about this. We were talking a Space Mountain. You go on Space Mountain, the attendant hits the little button and zoom away. You go and the Zoox person hits the button zoom away you go. It’s a Disneyland attraction.

Walter Piecyk: So to your point, like you, you had the opportunity maybe to, with MGM to go from. Luxor, which I guess is MGM, to um, I dunno, aria, which I believe is an MGM property. , And you didn’t do that when you could, you know, possibly pick up some, some promotion from them. That seems, that seems odd. Is that really true? 

Grayson Brulte: That’s really true. And yes, this launch seems extremely obvious it to prove the technology because of the distance. But I don’t want to sit in a mobile to go 45 minutes from from one end of the strip to the other.

Walter Piecyk: a straight run? 

Grayson Brulte: I’m gonna be bored outta my mind.

Walter Piecyk: On a longer straight run, you know, to me is not as compelling. Given that you and I have both done a lot of these driver out tests now. Um, we wanna see picking a destination, the route that it goes, making unprotected lefts not being on effectively like rails, like a glide ways where you’re basically like rails from point A to point B. I’m not sure that really highlights the technology. . But with that said, I look forward to another road trip with you, Grayson. Maybe we should hit Vegas, given there’s so many, um, technology, it’ll be great to go from one to the other, maybe from a Nuro to a, to a, um, a zoox and, and hopefully some form of robotaxi at that point.

Grayson Brulte: I, I definitely think we need to do a. Vegas road trip to experience what’s out there. And I do want to give you the most important aspect that the concierge told me. When I called you ready for this, Walt. I literally fell outta my chair and had a cow. I call up and I, and said to this, it was, it was a man. And I said, sir, you know, I don’t like being around people. I like to be by myself and I, I can’t go in a vehicle with anyway. Oh, don’t worry about that. Single riders are fully permitted. That was a big change. Single riders are permitted in the Zoox mobile according to the concierge. That’s a big deal.

Walter Piecyk: that’s a big deal to you. It’s not as big of a deal to me. I never thought that this shared ride situation was something that was gonna stick with Zoox ’cause I think this is, um, you know, just one of the things. So, we’ll, we’ll see. You know, let’s get to Vegas. Try it out. We’ll report back. , You know, another. Autonomy markets, road trip. Looks like it’s on the horizon.

Grayson Brulte: It’s on the horizon. And for our listeners and viewers, I, I had the opportunity years ago to go in the Lyft Motional Aptiv vehicle in Vegas. Yes, there was a safety driver. Yes, for safety engineer, but we got to pick destinations. So I’m gonna compare that to the Zoox mobile because there is a be mark there. Well, staying on the Vegas theme, let’s get back to Tesla. I gotta ask you a question, and we’re gonna go prediction corner here if Tesla does indeed launch robotaxi in Las Vegas, as we clearly see, there’s a paper trail there. Who charges for commercial service first? Tesla or Zoox? 

Walter Piecyk: if charging is $4 and 20 cents, then I would guess that Tesla’s probably, uh, queued up. To do that faster, but we’re rooting for ya. Zoox, we want you to, to progress this technology as fast as possible to continue to have, you know, more competition in the market. But I’m gonna go with, with, uh, even though Tesla’s not even announced in the market, no agreements in place. I’m gonna say, you know, you’re gonna see paid rides for them first, and it’s fine for that to be driver attendant, right in your definition of this prediction.

Grayson Brulte: Yes, as long as there’s a, a financial transaction.

Walter Piecyk: Perfect. Yes, Tesla.

Grayson Brulte: Okay, so Zoox, six years ago, 2019, first started testing in Las Vegas. Your prediction comes true, and I agree with you. How do Amazon investors react? Because it seems that you had a six year head start, but yet Tesla comes out of here and they surpass you.

Walter Piecyk: a six year lead with a vehicle that has lidar, this is heresy for us to suggest that maybe something without lidar could, could beat something that’s allegedly years and years ahead. Um. You know, I don’t think Amazon investors are really paying attention in, in terms of what’s going on or, or not going on at Zoox and Google. Obviously Waymo much bigger presence, much further along, a lot of revenue getting generated from that company so that that’s more meaningful. Although, to be fair, like, you know, Waymo was barely discussed on, on a Google call. We’ll get to that later. So I don’t know. I don’t think, I don’t think Amazon investor care, I don’t know if that really. Grayson though means that just because investors aren’t asking questions and pressuring senior management, that there’s not some level of accountability there and maybe some asking of questions on what is going on with this project.

Grayson Brulte: I’m asking questions mainly ’cause I’m curious and they had such a headstart and it seems like it’s kind of stuck in neutral. That’s why I’m asking the questions and. I go through the transcripts and I listen to the Amazon earnings calls, and I have not heard one single question asked about Zoox, and it’s kind of mind blowing because you listen to the Tesla call, you listen to the, uh, the alphabet call. Everybody asked about Waymo, and as you and I both know, there’s a lot of interest from the investor community in Roback, so I’m just surprised it doesn’t come up. Does that dam ever break? At some point, does some analyst ask the question? Finally, perhaps listening to us ramble about it.

Walter Piecyk: I’m gonna answer just what I said before and now a little bit more direct to you. No, that does not happen. This is gonna have to be a decision by senior management. Sorry, it doesn’t, it’s more likely to happen at Apple, you know, that hasn’t really come up with new products and seize their revenue growth. But Amazon’s got other growth engines that are out there that, you know, remove pressure. When companies are not doing well, then that, you know, creates questions for different product lines where there’s some investment. But no, it will never generate pressure from senior management.

Grayson Brulte: Okay, I’ll agree to disagree at some. At some point, pressure, pressure will build and they’re gonna have to do something with the program. But let’s move on. Let’s so on on the Q2, 2025 earnings call. Elon said about the expansion, you highlighted the Bay Area, but they’re also looking at Florida. Great. We want you here because regulatory environment, they’re also looking at Arizona. How fast do you see Tesla truly scaling robotaxi 

Walter Piecyk: I think when it happens, it’s gonna happen very fast because. Unlike Waymo, you don’t have this process of acquiring cars from another company and then outfitting them with sensors and then testing those sensors and then, you know, setting up all of the charging, which obviously Tesla’s got this incredible charging network, which we talked about was important. There should be, you know, like we saw with Omo and Waymo in Austin, probably an area where there’s, there’s gonna be some maintenance, but. Um, you know, we, I think, you know, Grayson, you super sleuth something else. You know, one of the key sensors on a Tesla car is the camera that’s like right under basically your front license plate. And why don’t you tell us what you found? 

Grayson Brulte: Last night, I’m in an Uber and the gentleman picked me up in the new Model Y, which is a, a great car. I know we harp on it, but really great suspension. So I have to highlight that. And I noticed something, the individual hit a button on the screen and said, how did you do that? What is it doing here? They have a cleaner, they have a camera that front camera cleans, and so I take a photo. The gentleman wouldn’t, lemme take a video of what I asked her permission. I was able to take a photo. So Walt has a new model YI show it to him today. Lo and behold, he goes to his car and it’s this, it’s there. What did you think, Walt, when you experienced it? 

Walter Piecyk: well, I think it’s just one of those additions for the new car that, that, you know, shows the importance of the sensor. But the reason I bring that up is a, it’s just a fun little discovery and maybe we’ll post a video here or on, on Twitter x, , for people to, to check it out. It’s just kind of fun. Not a major discovery, but fun. , But just speaks to, that’s the sensor. It’s a camera. There’s a little water jet that cleans it as opposed to. Again, Waymo of Omo where you’ve got all of these, you know, high tech lidar, things that are spinning around that need to go back and get recalibrated. It’ll be interesting to see what that sensor failure rate is like, or fixing rate is like, and you know, what type of infrastructure Tesla is gonna have to build. You know, in order to support that. And by the way, so we went down this kind of thought path to get back to your original question that speaks to the speed. At which you can launch in these additional markets. So let me relate this to Waymo. Like, you know, the, the conclusion that we got from Austin and seeing the infrastructure bill, the charging, the servicing, is you’re just not gonna see Waymo in New York in the near term because of this infrastructure that needs to get, get built out. So that has to be a key component to how we think about this race. So when people talk about one company being years ahead of another one. 100%. The technology is the base level, critical element of that. Like you have to get your technology to work with the driver and the driver tenant have to get out and you don’t get into accidents, right? But then when you go to step two, you gotta be able to source cars quickly. You gotta be able to charge and clean those cars at scale in markets that have the real estate and the power that enable you to do that. So we will continue to harp on this as we have. Over many episodes in the past, but that is an important element. And I think in Tesla’s case, there are elements to this in terms of the sensors, the charger network, um, and the car availability that if they can get the technology to the point where it’s perceived or, or is actually safe, not perceived, is actually safe, that expansion can happen very quickly.

Grayson Brulte: wanna emphasize the point around maintenance. You’re right, the, the Tesla model Ys are a lot more cost effective to maintain from a maintenance standpoint compared to a Waymo vehicle with, with lots of sensors, which I was thinking a lot about this last night after the gentleman showed me the button to clean the sensors. The more I think about this, the more I truly believe that Tesla built the new Model Y for robotaxi, that that was part of this Grand Master plan. More, the more I think about it and the more time I spend in the new model y.

Walter Piecyk: look, I think robotaxi has been on, uh, Elon’s mind for a long time. I don’t know if the y was specifically built for robotaxi. Um, it certainly will be a very important model for them as these, as these fleets expand, we’ll see what the mix is between Y’s that go into their own ownership versus people putting their Y’s into the network. One of the other things talked about, I think, on the earnings call is. The software development that we’ve seen and experienced on our own in Austin is now gonna be extended to Model Y and other Tesla owners that have the hardware for. So I’m looking forward to that. I think those changes, I don’t think it’s gonna change how my car feels because my car already feels pretty natural, but those drop off and pick off pickups, which were excellent. Um, when we were in Austin, I think it, it’d be great to have that added. As an increased, increased improvement in terms of, you know, the 13 dot whatever I’m running right now.

Grayson Brulte: Absolutely. Another thing I’m, I’m gonna watch for my, I have the new model three. I don’t have that sensor cleaning function. I’m gonna see if new vehicles going forward, new models, perhaps the Q model that’s coming, the smaller one has that, that’ll be a clear sign 

Walter Piecyk: grayson, before we move on to the last topic, since you were a, you know, a long time or at least a part-time, uh, California resident, you know, again, going back to what I said before on Elon saying that you, there will be a driver in launch, I think in San Francisco or somewhere in the Bay Area with Tesla. What is this focus on, on California? Like, why even bother? , You know, with, with being in California, given the regulatory restrictions that exist there.

Grayson Brulte: I don’t know. I, I truly don’t know. What I’ve seen o over the years from the vast experience that I have in this industry is the engineer’s desire and wants to live there. That is the only thing that, that I could see. There’s been lots of talks where companies wanted to leave California, we saw that with trucking, they went to the Dallas area, but it just seems that it, California has this great magnet that’s continuously attracting individuals, but. From a business operations standpoint, the regulatory environment is very, very harsh. It’s very hard to do business. We we, if you wanna call it, we had a huge blow this week when in and out announced they’re moving their corporate headquarters to Franklin, Tennessee. So it’s been well documented. It’s a very hard place to do business. I don’t know why they robotaxi companies wanna be there and deal with all the regulation. I truly don’t know. Why do you think they wanna be there? Is it the market size? Is it the allure? What do you 

Walter Piecyk: I think, you know, it could be precisely why you know you want to be there is to show people that you have succeeded in what is probably one of the more challenging markets, you know, in the country from a regulatory standpoint. New York is probably even a bigger one. You know, because not only do you have the regulatory issues here, the union issues here, but, but also just the, the topography, the weather, you know, and, and the traffic that we, that we deal with in Midtown, which is unlike none other, um, I think in this country.

Grayson Brulte: I can make an argument that it’s harder to drive in New York than it is in San Francisco.

Walter Piecyk: for sure. That’s for sure. That’s, that’s the case.

Grayson Brulte: we got a lot of really great inbounds from, from listeners and viewers, and they said, why aren’t you covering more of the international market? So this week we are, no, Walt and I didn’t get on a plane, we didn’t go across the pond, we didn’t go to Germany. But we had news outta Germany this week that VW CEO, Ola Blum is looking to raise cash for their autonomous vehicle division inside a VW from third party investors. What do you think this is all about, 

Walter Piecyk: Walt? Well, first of all, what does an autonomous division in VW even mean? Because I don’t know why an OEM. Would do this. This is like reminds me of when Telcos decided they wanted to get in media and tried to bring that in in-house and it was a disaster and always tried to kind of build their own as opposed to partnering with the experts in the area. So what do we even know about what exists there and why they would even be doing this? 

Grayson Brulte: The division is A DMT and that stands for Autonomous Driving Mobility and Transport, LLC. VW has had a long tenuous history in autonomous driving. First, they wanted to build it in-house, then they wanted to go out. They partner with Argo. That failed. They brought it back in-house. That failed. Then they go and partner with MobileEye. It’s this start, stop, start, stop. And they have never been able to deliver an autonomous driving product to the market. And I don’t understand what’s really driving them to want to do this and not just partner with a credible partner such as Wayve or Nuro or another autonomous driving 

Walter Piecyk: what you described does not res, you know, does not surprise me in the least. When you have large companies and you have a division, which is basically a cost center. I’m sure when things are, are tight on the top line, they look around, where can they cut costs and they pull back in precisely these areas ’cause there’s no immediate, uh, type of payoff. And I’m not sure. The second issue is like, how do you even attract talent, you know, into a division within a larger company? If you’re a good engineer, you theoretically want equity in some hot startup that’s doing autonomy or unless some, some of the larger companies over the years, I think Lucent tried to do this 20 years ago. Create equity at that level, maybe that exists. But at the end of the day, you know, I think maybe VW should just stick to their knitting and, and look to partner. And then, you know, if one of these technology companies you wanna bring in house later that you’ve partnered with and maybe had an equity stake with a right of first refusal or something like that, then you bring them in. But trying to grow this internally, I just think is, you know, again, I don’t know anyone at VW or anyone in this group, so please don’t take offense if you listen us. I don’t, you know, and we’d be happy to spend more time with you, you know, invite us in, let us kick the tires like so many other, you know, these technology startups have. , But based on what I’m, what you’ve described to me, that seems like a bad strategy.

Grayson Brulte: If you look at the, the well documented turbulent history they’ve had with autonomy, why, and this is gonna take institution level money, why would an institutional investor look to even invest in this? It just, it doesn’t seem like it’s a fit since there’s a well documented history of turmoil.

Walter Piecyk: In some cases, OEM investments are positive, but in general, when you have like OEMs themselves getting external money to invest in a subsidiary, a minority at an OEM, I don’t know, you know, good luck with that. You know, by the way, they’re not the only ones. I think even when Lucid announced their deal with Nuro, they still talked about doing continuing internal developments at Lucid for their own at least advanced adas, if not future autonomy.

Grayson Brulte: And in the same article manager magazine out of Germany, they’re saying that both the Porsche side of the house and the VW side of the house are facing a cash crunch, and they’re looking to sell their stake in applied intuition. So it seems to me that there’s desperation in the market that they’re just trying to raise capital.

Walter Piecyk: So, yeah, they’re selling it and then, but maintaining some internal development. Is that, is that, do I understand that? Correct.

Grayson Brulte: If they’re looking to sell it purely for a financial return to fund operations. ’cause the companies, 

Walter Piecyk: no, no, but they’re, but they’s maintaining their own internal autonomous development or, or this is a separate issue 

Grayson Brulte: they’re maintaining their own internal development.

Walter Piecyk: and yet cutting the external one. I mean, so I don’t think that makes sense and frankly. From everything you described, this does not sound at all bad for applied. They’re probably happy to be free of that. It’s definitely better, I think, to be Switzerland and you know, be the partner for any number of OEMs, especially, you know, a partner like that.

Grayson Brulte: Staying on the theme of funding on Alphabet’s Q2 2025 earnings call Alphabet’s, CFO said that they’re gonna commit more resources to companies than other bets, such as Waymo. This is a positive sign. What do you make of this? Is this alphabet’s growing confidence in Waymo? 

Walter Piecyk: I mean, it sounds like a generic comment to me, a throwaway comment that you put in the call, like, yeah, we’re gonna put more funding in this thing. . So, and without really giving any incremental details on what’s going on at Waymo, like I said earlier in the, in the call, same issue with Tesla. Not a lot of new information to hang our hats on in terms of the q uh, two reports of either, Google or Tesla on this front. And clearly, you know, Waymo has been a success story. So yeah, of course you’re gonna say we’re gonna invest in more, you know, successful things, but. Not a lot of takeaways from the earnings call, for us in the autonomy world.

Grayson Brulte: Just because we didn’t get more details on earnings calls to me, yes. It was just a little bit disappointing, but we’re just gonna wait for market news because Waymo continues to be the clear leader in robotaxi and they continue to scale. Perhaps there’s a big milestone metric that they’re getting ready to announce. That could be something to watch in the market.

Walter Piecyk: Yeah, for sure. And you know, events are ultimately gonna mean more than, you know, comments on an earnings call. So. There’s never been, we’ve obviously been able to keep this, this, uh, weekly event full of chockfull of information every week. So I’m not, I’m not worried about, particularly in the case of Waymo, , the leader in terms of their progress And having more to talk about.

Grayson Brulte: And they just, the one thing is Waymo continues to scale, as Waymo continues to scale the autonomous trucking industry, which we have not covered a lot lately. Continues to scale this week. Bot Auto, which I’ve been very fortunate to, to be in the truck and have experience with service, announced a partnership with Steves and Sons through their partner, JB Hunt, to run the autonomous service for them. That’s a big deal. Bot’s gotta paying customer. Now, what do you make of this news? 

Walter Piecyk: I think it’s great Grayson, when you, when you get a customer. That’s obviously important in terms of getting, getting into revenue and getting to, , you know, positive ebitda. And it makes me think more about this business model in terms of how Bot Auto will say, don’t worry about whether you have to buy the truck or you have to decide whether the, if you’re the trucking company, you have to decide whether the drivers we’re taking on all that on our own. We’re just gonna move your products from point A to point B. It becomes easier. Now look, let’s be clear. For this all to work. The, the table stakes is getting a product that actually works where you can drive safely a truck with no driver. And certainly Aurora, you know, has, has made significant strides and, you know, has gotten driver out, you know, and, and is, is on that rail. But that’s fine. But if other people get to that point, the next thing is gonna be, well, how, how quickly can you sign up customers? And if. There’s friction in getting customers to commit to own the truck or come up with, you know, whatever commitment they need to do, um, versus like a bot auto model where they’re just saying, I’m, you’re just taking packages. Um, we’ll have to see that that evolves, like companies like Aurora and plus can clearly pivot their business model if this, you know, if this is, you know, creating an issue, it could make that more capital intensive. Investors will have to digest if a greater capital intensity in their business, whether that’s something they appreciate. But, um. I think like getting back to the original thing, you know, a good win for Bot Auto. But look guys, you gotta get that driver out and get your technology work ’cause none of this really matters unless the technology actually works.

Grayson Brulte: I believe that, that the technology will work for, for all of these companies, and you need really great partners. So you have the partner, Steves and Sons, and JB Hunt, and I wanna highlight a quote from the press release here from Scott Levity, the Chief Operating Officer of Steves and Sons. This is a very powerful quote from, , Mr. Lovett and quote, this is not just a technical upgrade, it’s a cultural shift. We’re investing in the future of American manufacturing by building smarter, safer, and more adaptive supply chain systems that support our employees, our partners, and the customers we serve. End quote. Love the messaging. That messaging resonates with the White House. Why are we not seeing more of that messaging there? Because there is a growing trucking, short as there’s a need for autonomous trucking and ’cause consumers are continuing to buy goods.

Walter Piecyk: Scott Lovett is not buying the truck. He’s not making the decision whether a. Steves and Sons truck, you know, has a driver in or driver out. He’s just using a service that happens to be autonomous, so it’s quite easy for him to say whatever he wants with whatever pricing bot auto, uh, was willing to give them. So that to me, I mean, it’s good, it’s great. Obviously we love press releases, but that, that kind of, I don’t care, honestly, it’s just, it’s good that he’s willing to use a product, um, but he’s not really committing anything in terms of. Of the technology. And earlier, uh, Grayson, you said, well, you know, you believe that all of these companies will hit the technology. I don’t believe that. I want them all to succeed. Right. And, and we keep an open mind to the different approaches. We talk to engineers from one company that attacks the other and then vice versa about why one technology will work and one won’t, won’t. They all sound very convincing. I don’t know if they will all succeed. I suspect that most won’t. In fact succeed and, and get to true driver out. Um, but we certainly hope that they do. So I just want to like point that out earlier said, you believe they all will, you know, I think maybe you were just, you were saying more like you hope, I don’t wanna speak for you, but I, I, you know, I wanna make sure our listeners know at least my view on that.

Grayson Brulte: from a technical standpoint, there are clear, clear leaders and they’re well documented on the autonomy leaderboard. And the con biggest concerns that I have for a lot of these companies is the business model, the, the business aspect of it. I believe that the companies that are leading today technically have the ability from an engineering traps to do it, to succeed. The big risk that I see is in, in, in the business models and the capital is going to take to scale these 

Walter Piecyk: okay. This is a very specific difference between you and I because my biggest issue is the technology. Because in my view, if this technology works and we are truly autonomous, the business model will follow. And if the business model does not follow with the existing CEO or COO of that company, those two people and more will be replaced until the business model that works, um, is, is deployed. So I am less concerned and, and my mind gets so excited when I think about all the great things that can happen from autonomy. So my biggest concern is always gonna be which of these things is actually gonna work, not, not the business model. I think that business model will find a way.

Grayson Brulte: But can they get the funding to build the technology? That’s the question.

Walter Piecyk: Sure. Like I’m not discounting the fact that as you progress, you need to present some mileposts, but I mean the markets are pretty solid right now. You have the IPO market opening up. If you’re showing a technology that’s not necessarily delivering EBITDA tomorrow or a year from now, I think there is some level of capital that exists, you know, that’s willing to invest in the promise of what autonomy offers. Whether it’s trucking, which is a very large market, um, or, or you know, the robotaxi, or ultimately private ownership of autonomous vehicles.

Grayson Brulte: Autonomy has a lot of promise for companies and some companies are. Less bullish than others. And you put on your sa sleuth hat this week and you joined the PACCAR earnings call or drum ball. Please do, do, do you got to ask a question? What did you ask? How did you get on the call? Did you say, hi, my name is Trucking Analyst 1 0 1, how? How did you get on there? 

Walter Piecyk: I logged on the call. PACCAR is a fairly large sized company. I mean, I, I think our firm is, is certainly well known and and respected within the TMT industry. So it was, uh, you never know. You log onto like a trucker’s call and like they’re gonna be like, who the hell is, um, is light? She, um, the CEO of that company, Preston is, is certainly very slick, very well coached. I obviously was asking about Aurora, as everyone knows Aurora went driver out in what was a PACCAR truck. Paccar said, put the driver back in. So I’m like, I basically asked to Preston the CEO. Well why? Like, why are you, why are you doing that? Um, and you have other partners, so lemme just read his first response. We see others making progress as well. We, we always operate at PACCAR with the safety being our most fundamental foundation principle. And so for us, we want that to remain as the true north, I guess you meant North Star. Maybe the transcript is bad. North Star for us if we remain. That remains as a true north for us. And so that having a driver in seems like the smartest idea, and that’s what we’ve, that’s what, how we’re gonna operate the trucks. So everyone’s probably listening to this and be like, what was just said? And that’s what a professional CEO says, which is nothing. When they get a question, they basically say nothing, but at light shed, we don’t, and this is probably why we don’t get questions on some calls. We don’t just allow that question to sit, we ask a follow up question. So I specifically came back and I was like, is there a certain milestone that you want to achieve? Because obviously if, if you always want Aurora to have a driver in, that’s, that’s gonna be a problem for their business model. So Preston then came, you know, gave a little bit more insight here. Preston, again, the CEO of PACCAR. We don’t ever discuss what we’re doing, um, when we go to production, but always what we do is things should be. Fully production and when things are fully production, validated, completed production, then that’s when we have that conversation. So what that told to me is, or told me is I don’t think there’s some dial, it doesn’t feel like when I’m talking to the CEO of PACCAR, there’s some dialogue where like next week or next month that he’s gonna dial up and say like, in that one, you know, that one route that auroras in, or if they expand a three routes, that he’s gonna be like, okay. You can take that driver out. He wants to get to a point where there is production of the, of that Aurora truck, not the one or two that have been outfitted, you know, with this technology. So my sense was that we’re probably gonna see a driver in that seat for a while. And I think then, you know, from an Aurora standpoint, you gotta start, you know, asking more about, well, when do we see Volvo? And by the way, like I’m on Aurora side here. I think PACCAR is probably being, you know. Overly cautious. This underscores the issue that these technology companies have. This is what exactly what I was talking about as it relates to bot auto. The friction that exists in terms of getting someone else to commit to have their truck have a driver out. And then if someone actually bought that truck and took ownership of that truck and, and put their logo, whether it was a JB Hunt logo or whatever, you know, to take that ownership, that is friction. You know, I think in the business model that we, that we need to consider. While, while we may be excited about Aurora. And we may believe they’re ahead. There’s a whole ecosystem that has to be convinced, you know, before you can get to the point where you’re, where you’re generating revenue with a product that is truly driver out.

Grayson Brulte: We talked about safety earlier. With Tesla, but I want to highlight Mr. Nat Beuse. He’s the Chief Safety Officer at Aurora. The gentleman is extremely smart, one of the best in the business on safety, and I truly believe what he has published, that they did close the safety case. And I believe that what Aurora was doing, driver out was completely safe. And it’s unfortunate that they weren’t able to scale up because of PACCAR’s demands that we saw there very publicly in the Aurora blog post. So based on what you learned on the earnings call, the the public blog post of Mr. Urmson on the Aurora blog. And now you’re starting to see Volvo with the v and l, the autonomous truck. They’re starting to say, we’re testing it, they’re, they’re ramping up. Do we see a point hypothetically where the next driver out for Aurora is in the Volvo truck? 

Walter Piecyk: That’s what it feels like based on that comment. But things change, right? I mean, I don’t know where Aurora is in their, you know, getting to however Preston, uh, defines production is maybe, maybe I’m missing that altogether. And there is a, you know, a definition of production that they think that they can get to in the near term. But that’ll be, you know, that’ll be, I think for maybe Aurora to ask on their upcoming earnings call.

Grayson Brulte: Are you gonna dial into the Aurora earnings call and ask a question? 

Walter Piecyk: I’m gonna log for a question whether I get selected for a question. Uh, I don’t know, but like, you know, if you’re listening, Aurora, you know the exact question I’m gonna be asking. I’m gonna say, I talked to Paccar. This is what they said. You know, what does this mean? That’s simple. You know what the question is ahead of time. You can prepare.

Grayson Brulte: Preparing is good, especially when you’re making food or you’re preparing for an earnings call. Either way, you have to be prepared, and we’re always prepared here at autonomy markets every week. Well, so obviously we have the. The Aurora earnings call next week. What else do we need to look for in the autonomy markets over the next week? 

Walter Piecyk: Apple’s having an earnings call, but I doubt autonomy will be a part of that. Uh, Amazon, uh, has their earnings call. Again, I doubt you hear much of anything about Zoox. Maybe they’ll talk about Vegas. Who knows? Um, there’s a lidar company, Ava, that’s doing an investor day in, in New York City. Um, you know, they’ve got a definitely an interesting approach that touches many different, uh, industry segments beyond just vehicles. So, no, it should be another busy week for us. Grayson 

Grayson Brulte: It’s gonna be a busy week, which I’ll say with great content and great stories, and great analysis by us. The future is bright. The future autonomous. The future is autonomy markets, Walt. Until next week.

Key Autonomy Markets Episode Questions Answered