The Robotaxi Market is Changing
June 22, 2025
This Week in The Autonomy Economy is presented by Koop, a specialist insurance provider focused on robotics and autonomous vehicles.
This Week in The Autonomy Economy, Waymo announced they are expanding to New York City, Nuro unveiled their next-generation sensor architecture, and the clickbait media went into overdrive with the launch of Tesla’s Robotaxi service in Austin.
The headlines, many of which are misleading and some flat-out incorrect, border on comical. But the sad truth is that most people only skim the headline and maybe read the first few sentences before forming an opinion. That’s the reality we live in.
How can this be changed? Unfortunately, we do not see it changing and we only see it accelerating with the adoption of LLM-powered chatbots. So what can you do? Tune out the noise. Do your own independent research and come to your own conclusions.
The conclusion that we have come to is that the autonomy markets are very healthy and competition is heating up. Coming into this year, Waymo was the clear, undisputed leader in robotaxis.
As of today, they are still the leader, but they are no longer the de facto leader. The market is shifting. Competitors are emerging, and they’re coming with deep pockets and even grander ambitions.
The competition that is emerging in the robotaxi market today is Tesla, Wayve, May Mobility and Zoox. Today is Robotaxi Day in Austin, Waymo’s biggest competitor just entered the market, Wayve has Softbank backing and a partnership with Uber, May Mobility is backed by Toyota and NTT and Zoox is owned by Amazon.
All of sudden, Waymo is vulnerable and ripe for disruption. Their sensor-heavy, pre-mapped approach to autonomy may soon be challenged by a lighter, vision-first, mapless approach to autonomous driving, especially if and when Tesla and Wayve both successfully scale commercial operations.
What is happening today with Waymo is reminiscent of what is currently happening to Google Search, which is steadily losing market share to LLM-based chatbots. Waymo could follow the same path, going from undisputed leader to disrupted incumbent unless they adapt and embrace a new architecture.
For now, Waymo remains in the lead. But they’re exposed. And if history is any guide, they may become another case of Alphabet being early, and then failing to stay ahead of a changing market.
The competitive pressure could intensify if either Meta or OpenAI decides to truly build an autonomous driving stack. One thing is already clear, Apple misread the market. They missed AI and shuttered Project Titan just as the robotaxi market is starting to take off.
And then there’s GM. They pulled the plug on Cruise at the worst possible time. Was that decision driven by fear, or simply by a misunderstanding of where the market was headed? Perhaps one day we will truly know why both Apple and GM made the decisions they made.
Meanwhile, Alphabet faces its own decision, commercialize the EMMA model or risk watching Tesla and/or Wayve become the OpenAI of autonomy, while investor pressure mounts on Alphabet’s leadership.
As we wrote last week, Alphabet maybe it’s time to find your Larry Culp.
P.S. If you are wondering why our perspective on Waymo has changed over the last several months, we bought a Tesla.
For years, we questioned and doubted Tesla’s vision-based approach to autonomy. That all changed when we bought the Tesla and started using FSD everyday. We had no intention of buying a Tesla, until we listened to several episodes of the BG2Pod with Brad Gerstner and Bill Gurley.
Their consistent praise of how far FSD had come and how good it was getting piqued our curiosity They were right, and we are extremely glad we took the plunge and bought a Tesla.
Before owning the car, we were convinced FSD wouldn’t scale and wouldn’t pass the real-world tests we were most curious about. But it did, passing 99% of the tests we conducted with the vehicle.
Today, we use FSD daily, in all weather conditions and even rainstorms where you cannot see the vehicle in front of you. It drives better than we do and in conditions we would not be able to drive in.
We ignored the noise, did our own independent research, and experienced the product firsthand. That changed everything. Our earlier views were shaped and highly influenced by what we read and what we heard, not what we lived.
👔The Road to Autonomy helps institutional investors, investment banks, financial institutions, and autonomy companies interpret emerging trends, evaluate market signals, and strategically navigate a rapidly evolving market, a market that we call the autonomy economy.
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What’s Moving the Markets
Waymo Expands to The Big Apple
Honey, we’re home. Waymo is heading back to NYC for the first time since 2021 and this time they plan on staying, that is if they can change the law.
Currently, New York State law does not permit the operation of fully autonomous vehicles (without safety drivers). To change that, Senate Bill S344 would need to be passed. But that won’t happen this year as the New York Legislative Session has ended and won’t reconvene until January 2026. However, the bill can carry over and be considered when the session resumes.
At best, fully autonomous vehicles could begin operating in NYC by mid-2026, assuming the bill becomes law. Once signed by the Governor, it would take effect 90 days later.
But this is New York, one of the most, if not the most, highly regulated TNC markets in the country. Everyone takes a cut, and the cost of doing business can quickly escalate due to the dense regulatory environment.
Then there’s organized labor. Will unions make New York their Alamo, a last stand to try and stop autonomous vehicles from scaling nationwide? It’s entirely possible. For Waymo, operation in New York is far from a done deal.
What’s particularly fascinating is the political strategy behind Waymo’s move. It appears to us that Waymo is going to try and build public support by having the vehicles visible, so that when they tell New Yorkers you can’t ride in one because of outdated laws, they call their local elected officials and give them hell in a New York only type of fashion.
Our take: Once Waymo begins operating in NYC and expands hopefully to both LGA and JFK, the next question becomes which baseball team gets service first, the Yankees or Mets?
Waymo is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the autonomous vehicle category.
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Piquing Our Interest
Helm.ai Announces Vision-First System Vision-based autonomous driving systems are steadily gaining market share and soon, this approach could disrupt the entire industry. This week, Helm.ai unveiled Helm.ai Vision, their enhanced, production-ready urban perception system designed for Level 3 autonomy. Want to learn more? We recommend the following podcast: Generative AI Will Revolutionize Autonomous Vehicles: A Conversation with Vladislav Voroninski, Co-Founder & CEO of Helm.ai.
Waymo Continues to Talk with SFO about Launching Robotaxi Service In a classic case of California overregulation, San Francisco International Airport (SFO) is stalling on approving Waymo’s operations, citing the need for “an entirely new permit structure for autonomous vehicles, because Waymo represents an entirely new mode of transportation.” In other words, more regulation. It’s simply the California way, the more regulation, the better.
Waymo Expands LA and Bay Area Service Waymo continues to grow their footprint in California, announcing this week an expanded service area in both Los Angeles and the Bay Area, though still with no highway operations.
Waymo is Testing the Zeekr RT Robotaxi on the 405 in LA Videos of Waymo testing the Zeekr RT robotaxi continue to surface on Reddit, including new footage of the vehicle testing on the 405 in LA. Could the Zeekr, not the Jaguar I-PACE, be Waymo’s first highway-capable vehicle?
📰 Before these stories were featured here, they were available on X. Follow @RoadToAutonomy today to stay up-to-date on the latest news and developments shaping the autonomy economy.
Social Buzz
A Very Important Company
We wholeheartedly agree with Ben Horowitz. Applied Intuition is building a very important company, and we are very bullish on the company and have been for a long time. In fact, founders Qasar Younis and Peter Ludwig have appeared on The Road to Autonomy podcast more than any other guests, and they’ll be back on July 1st for a wide-ranging conversation about cars, AI, and the future of autonomy. Don’t miss it!
Our take: Applied Intuition is the most interesting company in autonomy today.
Applied Intuition is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the software suppliers category.
Nuro Unveils New Sensor Architecture
This week, Nuro unveiled their next-generation sensor architecture with a key capability, highway-capable radar. Unlike others, Nuro isn’t treating highways as a secondary challenge, they recognize them as a critical component in scaling autonomy, especially as they advance their licensing strategy.
Our take: It’s only a matter of time before Nuro announces their first OEM licensing partner.
Nuro is currently ranked #2 with a positive outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the licensing category.
Latest The Road to Autonomy Podcast
Wayve: Scaling Autonomous Vehicles Without Borders
Kaity Fischer, Vice President, Commercial and Operations, Wayve joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss how Wayve is scaling their end-to-end AI autonomous driving system globally.
Watch on YouTube | Spotify | X
Listen on Apple Podcasts
June 17, 2025
Latest Autonomy Markets Podcast
Waymo’s Big NYC Announcement, Rider Survey Hints at Strategy, Can Texas Block Tesla? Is Meta Entering Autonomy?
This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Waymo’s return to The Big Apple, a revealing new Waymo rider survey, political grandstanding in Texas aimed at delaying Tesla’s robotaxi launch, and the emergence of potential new players in autonomous driving sector, Meta and OpenAI.
Watch on YouTube | Spotify | X
Listen on Apple Podcasts
June 21, 2025
