Waymo’s Valuation Skyrockets 144% in 16 Months
February 1, 2026
This Week in The Autonomy Economy is presented by Koop, a specialist insurance provider focused on robotics and autonomous vehicles.
This Week in the Autonomy Economy, Waymo’s valuation skyrocketed 144%, Uber’s autonomy ambitions are starting to become clearer, and Waabi raised $750 million with a potential pivot on the horizon.
It was a big week in the autonomy markets, as investor dollars came back into the sector with a vengeance. Is this a sign of renewed market activity? We think so, as autonomy is hot once again. But this time the investment activity will be different. The metrics that mattered before are irrelevant, as the market has dramatically shifted towards execution and scale.
There are plenty of signs of a maturing market, and we will be here each and every week analyzing them for you on our ever-growing platforms. This week we put on our Inspector Hats and headed to Miami to experience Waymo’s service in the Magic City firsthand.
The first thing we noticed? The fleet is pristine. The vehicles had that distinct new car smell, and the odometers confirmed it. One of our vehicles only had 955 miles, while the rest were all under 7,000.
As for our wait times, they were all under 10 minutes. But we expect that to increase when the service is open to the public, as we only spotted a handful of other Waymos on the road, most of which were empty.
In fact, we saw more Serve Robotics delivery bots (well done, Ali!) than we did Waymos, which reinforces our belief that the current fleet in the Miami market is still quite limited.
We also visited Waymo’s future depot. To say the neighborhood is eclectic would be an understatement, but the location is strategic for a major expansion (which Waymo is currently working on).
Based on the site conditions, it appears that Waymo and their partner, MOOVE FL AV, LLC, are at least a year away from getting this facility fully operational as we saw no active work despite visiting during standard construction hours. Furthermore, it appeared that no work has taken place as of yet.
Next week on Autonomy Markets, we will show you the depot, the neighborhood and offer our thoughts and insights into why the location makes strategic sense. Plus we will discuss their infamous neighbor to the North and why drop-offs and pick-ups might increase in the later hours there.
While we were busy testing the Waymos, we also tested our autonomous economic theory. It is our belief that Waymo and autonomous vehicles in general will increase consumer spending in diverse sections of cities.
So we tried it and put our theory to the test. Macarons in the Design District, ice cream in Coconut Grove and an Argentinian market in Coral Gables. We even ventured out to West Miami past the airport for Chinese food, but we had to take our Tesla there (zero interventions) as that section of town currently remains outside of the ODD for now.
Even though our last stop was outside of the ODD, our time in Miami further solidified our belief that robotaxis are an engine for economic growth. They offer a consistent experience that is point-blank better than any Uber or Lyft.
This is the future, and soon all Miamians and tourists to the Magic City can experience the magic of autonomy.
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📰 Need to Know: This Week in the Autonomy Economy
Why did Waymo’s valuation jump to $110 billion?
Waymo’s valuation skyrocketed 144% (up from $45 billion in late 2024) following a $16 billion funding round. This surge is driven by Waymo’s transition into a high-growth business model; the company is now generating over $350 million in annual recurring revenue (ARR) and completing more than 450,000 paid rides every week. Alphabet contributed approximately $13 billion to this round, signaling deep conviction in their dominant market position.
What are Tesla’s specific plans for robotaxi expansion in 2026?
Tesla officially announced a Seven-City Strategy for the first half of 2026. While Austin is currently Ramping Unsupervised, Tesla plans to launch robotaxi services in the following new markets: Dallas, Houston, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, Phoenix and Las Vegas.
What is the “catch” in Waabi’s $750 million funding round?
While the headlines noted a $1 billion total, the immediate capital is $750 million. The remaining $250 million is a milestone-based investment from Uber. To unlock the full amount, Waabi must meet specific targets related to deploying at least 25,000 robotaxis exclusively on the Uber platform. This signals a strategic pivot for Waabi from autonomous trucking toward a multi-modal “shared brain” AI approach.
How is Waymo progressing with its Miami rollout?
Waymo has officially opened its service to the public in Miami with an initial 60-square-mile service area covering neighborhoods like the Design District, Wynwood, and Coral Gables.
The Fleet: Early riders report a “pristine” fleet of Jaguar I-Pace vehicles with very low mileage (many under 7,000 miles).
Operations: While service is live, the primary depot partnered with MOOVE FL AV, LLC appears to be at least a year away from being fully operational, with no active construction currently visible.
When will Waymo launch in London, and what is the “American flavor” mentioned?
Waymo is targeting a London pilot in April 2026, with commercial service expected by September or October. Interestingly, the initial fleet of Jaguar I-Paces being tested in London features a left-hand drive configuration (the American standard), despite the UK driving on the left. Waymo is currently mapping the city with a fleet of roughly 24 vehicles to learn nuances such as Belisha Beacons at zebra crossings.
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What’s Moving the Markets
Waymo’s Valuation Skyrockets 144% in 16 Months
Waymo is about to put immense distance between itself and the competition in the robotaxi market. Bloomberg is reporting that the company is raising $16 billion at a $110 billion valuation.
This represents a staggering 144% value increase in just 16 months, as Waymo was last valued at $45 billion when it raised $5.6 billion in October 2024.
According to The Financial Times, Alphabet is contributing $13 billion of the round, with new investors Dragoneer, Sequoia, and DST Global joining, alongside existing backers Andreessen Horowitz and Mubadala who are doubling down. The round was reportedly three times oversubscribed.
The bet that started as a moonshot has graduated into a business that is now reportedly generating more than $350 million in annual recurring revenue (ARR). This is a far cry from the sentiment in November 2022, when TCI Fund Management sent an aggressive open letter to Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai and the Board, demanding that the company slash spending on Other Bets, specifically targeting Waymo.
Here is what TCI Managing Director Christopher Hohn wrote exactly 1,174 days ago in that infamous letter:
Over the last five years, Other Bets has generated only $3 billion of cumulative revenues but incurred a massive $20 billion of cumulative operating losses. Alphabet’s investments in Other Bets have been unsuccessful. Alphabet should reduce annual operating losses in Other Bets (which we expect to amount to $6 billion this year) by at least 50%.
The biggest component of Other Bets is Waymo. Unfortunately, enthusiasm for self-driving cars has collapsed and competitors have exited the market. Ford and Volkswagen recently decided to shut down their self-driving car venture, saying: ‘We have looked at this every way you can and we just see the profitability a long way out.’
Waymo has not justified its excessive investment and its losses should be reduced dramatically.” Share buybacks should be increased “We welcome Alphabet’s increased share repurchases, which are now at a run-rate of $60 billion per year. Nevertheless, Alphabet still has over $116 billion of cash on the balance sheet. Alphabet’s large cash balance is serving neither shareholders nor the company.
— Christopher Hohn, TCI Fund Management (Nov 15, 2022)
Since that letter was sent, Waymo has gone on to become the dominant robotaxi provider in the world. Meanwhile, TCI Fund Management sold 100% of their Class A Alphabet shares and 41% of their Class C shares.
This highlights the power of conviction. Alphabet knew what they had in Waymo. They continued to invest, made hard decisions (and some bad ones with the Chinese-made Zeekrs), and ignored the noise.
Regrets? Waymo likely has a few. But they planned each charted course, each careful step along the byway, and saw it through without exemption. At the end of the day, Waymo did it their way.
Now, the hard part starts: achieving profitability. It’s time to do it Alphabet’s way.
Our Take: As the market for robotaxis matures and goes international, it will come down to a battle of balance sheets, conviction, and strategy. The winners will be those whose investors have the long-term vision, the deepest pockets, and the best fleet management operations. Right now, the global race is shaping up to be a two-horse race between Waymo and Tesla, with others lurking.
Waymo is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the autonomous vehicles category.
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Piquing Our Interest
Waymo Opens Limited SFO Airport Service It finally happened, Waymo is now available at SFO. Hopefully, the service will soon move from the rental car center to the curb. As the service opens to more and more members of the public, watch Uber and Lyft’s airport drop-off and pick-up numbers. Things are about to get even more interesting.
Waymo Aims to Launch London Pilot by April, Service by September Waymo is accelerating their international expansion, with London preparing to come online shortly. A pilot program (designated by UK regulations) is set to launch in April, followed by commercial service in September. One detail that caught The Inspector’s eye, there is a distinct American flavor to the fleet. The driver’s seat is on the left-hand side, not the right. It seems that Waymo isn’t retrofitting for local customs just yet.
Uber Announces AV Labs, is ATG Next? Uber is accelerating internal autonomous vehicle development by leveraging the data they capture form millions of rides every hour around the world. Next step, re-launching ATG? Could Uber be positioning itself to bring vehicle development back in-house, potentially accelerated by an acquisition?
Waabi Raises $750 Million at a $3 Billion Dollar Valuation, With a Catch While the headlines screamed $1 billion, the true number was actually $750 million. The Inspector sees all, and we found a major catch in the fine print, the round only increases to the full $1 billion if Waabi meets specific targets related to creating a robotaxi for Uber. If those metrics are hit, Uber’s total investment would reach $500 million, accounting for half the entire round. This deal has all the makings of a strategic pivot and a potential acquisition. Could we be seeing the groundwork for Raquel Urtasun to return to Uber and reboot ATG through an Uber acquisition of Waabi?
Tesla Announces Next Robotaxi Markets Tesla plans to bring seven new Robotaxi markets online in the first half of 2026. The rollout targets two markets in Texas (Dallas and Houston), three in Florida (Miami, Orlando, Tampa), along with Phoenix and Las Vegas.
Tesla Receives Approval to Test FSD in Israel Tesla has been granted permission by The Ministry of Transport to test FSD Supervised in Israel.
Mission Accomplished: David Moss Lands His Mechanical White Whale After 58 attempts, David Moss finally secured a ride in an unsupervised Tesla Robotaxi in Austin, without a chase car. This is a classic example of never giving up! Well done, Mr. Moss, and thank you for all the on-the-ground insights from Austin.
VinFast and Autobrains Partner to Develop Robotaxis VinFast and Autobrains have joined forces to develop a low-cost, camera-first autonomous driving system (with no LiDAR and no HD maps). The partnership aims to bring SAE Level 4 capabilities to the VF 8 and VF 9.
Freenow by Lyft Looks to Expand to Hamburg, Germany FREENOW by Lyft signed a deal with the City of Hamburg to integrate robotaxis into the city’s public transit network.
Pony AI Partners with ATBB to Deploy 3,000 Robotaxis in China Pony AI has partnered with Beijing ATBB Travel & Express Service Co to deploy 3,000 robotaxis by the end of 2026 in China.
📰 Before these stories were featured here, they were available on X. Follow @RoadToAutonomy today to stay up-to-date on the latest news and developments shaping the autonomy economy.
Social Buzz
Cybercab Winter Testing in the Windy City
Tesla clearly has cold weather on its mind. The company has been rigorously testing the Cybercab on a private track in Alaska and on public roads in downtown Chicago. Between this and Waymo’s expansion into Denver, plus their active push to enter New York City, one thing is becoming evident, robotaxis are heading north.
Our take: Over the next 18 months, we expect robotaxis to be operating in light snow.
Tesla is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the personally owned autonomous vehicles category.
Taking PlusAI Public
David Liu, CEO of PlusAI joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discus taking the company public and their strategic roadmap for commercializing autonomous trucking.
Watch on YouTube | Spotify | X
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January 27, 2025
Latest Autonomy Markets Podcast
Waymo’s LiDAR Controversy, Tesla’s Mega Merger, and Waabi’s Pivot to Robotaxis
This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Waymo’s LiDAR controversy following an incident in a Santa Monica school zone, the potential of a mega merger between Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI, and Waabi’s $750 million capital raise to pivot into robotaxis.
Watch on YouTube | Spotify | X
Listen on Apple Podcasts
January 31, 2025
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