Waymo’s Expansion Gamble: Political Risk vs. Market Opportunity
September 7, 2025
This Week in The Autonomy Economy is presented by Koop, a specialist insurance provider focused on robotics and autonomous vehicles.
This Week in the Autonomy Economy, Waymo announced plans to expand to Denver, the San Jose Airport, and took a political gamble in Seattle, while Tesla opened the Robotaxi waitlist.
It is becoming very evident that the robotaxi market is shaping up to be a heavyweight fight between Waymo and Tesla. Each and every week, both companies are trading strategic moves like boxers feeling each other out, and occasionally they land a right hook or two.
To date neither company has landed a one-two punch, but that day is coming and when that happens, how will the opponent who was struck react? Will they struggle to respond or will they shake their head, test their legs and go back on offense?
That is anyone’s guess at this point, but it is important to remember, building a robotaxi business is not just about the technology or the sensors, it’s about economics and policy. Anyone can make almost any car drive itself today under certain conditions, just buy a comma 3x, install it and away you go.
But not everyone can build a business that is grounded in long-term revenue growth, margin expansion and a world-class public policy strategy. You might be surprised, at the end of the day, the “best” tech might not win. The company that goes the distance and has the heart of a champion could very well win.
Having the heart of a champion means never giving up, but it also means rising to the occasion. In boxing, heart means fighting through adversity. In robotaxis, that adversity is union rallies, progressive mayors skeptical of big tech, and regulatory battles in hostile markets, and success means understanding both culture and politics.
This week’s Waymo expansion announcements perfectly illustrate this challenge. As we’ll explore, their Seattle gamble reveals a company that may be prioritizing ambition over strategic wisdom.
đź‘”The Road to Autonomy provides market intelligence and strategic advisory services to institutional investors and companies, delivering insights needed to stay ahead of emerging trends in the autonomy economy.
Discover how our market intelligence and strategic advisory services can empower your next move by requesting a market intelligence briefing.
One-Time Briefings • Quarterly Subscriptions • Bespoke Advisory Services
Subscribe to This Week in The Autonomy Economy™
Join institutional investors and industry leaders who read This Week in The Autonomy Economy every Sunday. Each edition delivers exclusive insight and commentary on the autonomy economy, helping you stay ahead of what’s next.
What’s Moving the Markets
Waymo’s Expansion Gamble: Political Risk vs. Market Opportunity
Last week we wrote about Waymo’s struggles in New York City and their success in California, comparing it to the famous opening of Charles Dickens’ A Tale of Two Cities.Â
Unfortunately, the Dickens trend has carried over to another week, this time with a new set of characters. Instead of New York and California, the actors are now Denver, San Jose and Seattle, with Seattle playing the role of the reluctant host, echoing New York’s hesitancy toward Waymo.
Both New York and Seattle are in the midst of mayoral elections with two clear front-runners: Zohran Mamdani in New York running as a democratic socialist and Katie Wilson in Seattle running as a progressive coalition-builder. Both Mr. Mamdani and Ms. Wilson are leading in the polls and are the clear front-runners.
While in different cities, there are a few things that unite both candidates as it relates to Waymo: they are not fans of big business and they have big ambitions to remake their cities.
In New York, Mr. Mamdani wants to permanently make every city bus free, expand bus lanes and create dedicated loading zones. While he has not made public statements regarding Waymo, his stance on bus transportation offers us a slight insight as to how he might view Waymo operating in New York City.
Over in Seattle, Ms. Wilson has a 15-year history of being a public transit advocate as co-founder of the Seattle Transit Riders Union, and on her campaign site the following is stated about her mobility and transportation plans:
Shift away from single-occupancy vehicles by updating and expanding the successful Commute Trip Reduction program for our post-pandemic reality: apply proven strategies to a broader range of sites including worksites with nonstandard hours, schools, and other destinations.
As Seattle’s population continues to grow, we simply don’t have space to keep adding more cars to our streets.Making smart investments in our public transit, bike and pedestrian infrastructure will make it possible for many more residents to move around our city without driving — while also promoting public health and reducing our climate pollution.
As you can clearly see from these public statements, both candidates could prove difficult to work with at the local city level. Furthermore, as of today in both Washington and New York you cannot legally operate driver-out autonomous vehicles on public roads, as the regulations are not yet in place. With two potentially hostile operating environments, why announce an expansion there and why now?
Those are the questions that we keep asking ourselves over and over again, as Waymo continues to push into hostile markets. Boston showed us the pattern, deep skepticism from officials, union rallies, and protective ordinances designed to slow-roll deployment.Â
City councilors joined union members for an anti-AV rally outside City Hall, with officials introducing ordinances explicitly meant to protect local jobs from the “robotaxi takeover.” Yet Waymo keeps pursuing similar challenging markets in New York and Seattle, suggesting that some sort of hubris has set in.
But why? When there are great cities such as Denver that want Waymo to come and operate there? In fact, Governor Polis of Colorado shared the following post on X after Waymo’s Denver expansion announcement.
This should be common practice from every mayor and governor of the cities and states Waymo expands to. This never happened in Boston, New York or Washington, but it did in Colorado.
As part of the Denver announcement, Waymo announced that they will operate a mixed fleet of Jaguar I-PACEs and Zeekr RT vehicles in the city. Could Denver become the first city to operate a Waymo mixed fleet?
The Zeekr RT’s impressive cleaning capabilities suggest it may be purpose-built for challenging weather conditions. The vehicle features eight tiny windshield wipers for its sensor arrays, plus washers and heaters, designed to keep cameras clean in “rain, fog, snow, and scenes with poor lighting conditions.”
Waymo describes this as a “comprehensive automated onboard cleaning system” built for “some of the harshest conditions.” Could this make the Zeekr ideal for Denver’s winter weather where traditional robotaxis might struggle? We’ll learn a lot in the coming quarters as Waymo ramps up testing and eventually turns on commercial service in the mile high city.
As Waymo continues to expand across the country, they continue making great strides in their home state of California. This week it was announced that Waymo will begin operating commercial service later this year at San Jose Airport.
While San Jose is onboard, SFO continues to hold out and released the following statement to SFGATE when asked why Waymo has not begun service at SFO yet:
We continue to meet with Waymo on the terms of a permit for operations at SFO. No set timeline for this, but we are meeting actively on this.
– Doug Yakel, SFO spokesperson as told SFGATE in an email, September 4, 2025
When Waymo can begin service at SFO remains anyone’s guess, but one thing is very clear: Waymo is scaling and as they scale they need to remember that a little bit of humility goes a long way.
Our take: Never forget being a big fish in a small pond comes with oversized responsibilities.
Waymo is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the autonomous vehicle category.
Advocating For The Autonomy Economy | Sponsored
Automation and autonomy will strengthen the economy, create jobs, and reduce inflation. Council for Economic Resilience is dedicated to promoting the future of autonomy and automation for the benefit of the American public.
Council for Economic Resilience, Inc. is a 501(c)4 Advocacy Group
Piquing Our Interest
Daimler Truck Seeks External Capital for Torc Autonomous Trucking Subsidiary According to Bloomberg, Daimler Truck is seeking external investors to help cover Torc’s $660 million in annual spending, in an effort led by Bank of America. Torc’s annual burn rate is second only to Aurora, which spent $676 million in 2024, and dwarfs Kodiak’s estimated $34.7 million per year, based on $243 million raised over seven years.
Avride Ramps up Testing in Dallas Avride’s Hyundai IONIQ 5 robotaxis will launch on Uber in Dallas later this year with safety drivers initially behind the wheel. This summer, we visited Avride in Austin and experienced a driver-out ride. Watch our experience here.
Pony.AI Begins Testing Robotaxis in Qatar Pony.ai continues to expand its Middle East robotaxi operations with a recently announced expansion to Qatar in partnership with Mowasalat, launching safety driver-supervised testing on public roads in Doha.
Qualcomm and BMW Launch Autonomous Driving System (L2+) To tap into growing consumer demand for hands-off, eyes-on autonomous driving systems, Qualcomm and BMW have jointly developed a new driver-assist system, set to debut on the BMW iX3 in 2026. Discover how Qualcomm’s Snapdragon platform is powering the next generation of autonomous vehicles by watching The Road to Autonomy podcast: Qualcomm’s Snapdragon Autonomy Strategy.
NHTSA Continues to Modernize Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS) Under Secretary Duffy’s leadership, the U.S. Department of Transportation continues laying the groundwork for autonomous vehicle deployment. This week, NHTSA announced three rulemakings to modernize Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards for vehicles with automated driving systems.
FAA Seeks Industry Input on Autonomous Ground Vehicle Systems Autonomy is scaling, and the U.S. Department of Transportation is leaning in. This week, the agency issued a Request for Information (RFI) for autonomous ground vehicle systems for use in and around airports.
đź“° Before these stories were featured here, they were available on X. Follow @RoadToAutonomy today to stay up-to-date on the latest news and developments shaping the autonomy economy.
Social Buzz
Robotaxis Scale Towards Unsupervised
No matter how you slice it, Tesla is scaling faster than any other robotaxi company in history, applying significant pressure on Waymo. We are now in the midst of a heavyweight fight between Tesla and Waymo.
Who wins is ultimately to be determined, but both companies will continue to accelerate deployments, with Tesla preparing for unsupervised robotaxis by the end of the year as Waymo prepares for driver-out on the highway.
Our take: The golden age of autonomy is on the horizon.
Tesla is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the personally owned autonomous vehicle category.
Latest Autonomy Markets Podcast
Who is Winning the Robotaxi Heavyweight Fight? Waymo or Tesla?
This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk analyze the heavyweight fight between Waymo and Tesla, covering Waymo’s expansion to Denver and potential Seattle expansion, Tesla’s chart-topping Robotaxi app, political headwinds, new NHTSA rules, and Torc’s burn rate.
Watch on YouTube | Spotify | X
Listen on Apple Podcasts
September 6, 2025
