Waymo Just Blew Up Uber’s Robotaxi Growth Story

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Waymo’s co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana dropping a Mike Tyson-like right hook on Uber during a Bloomberg interview, exposing the reality of their pending divorce just as Uber reported earnings.

With Uber projecting 700 fully driverless vehicles by year-end, Grayson and Walt point out that over 71% of those are Waymo vehicles, making Uber’s climb to its 10,000-vehicle goal by 2028 substantially harder without their top partner.

While Uber attempts to shift its narrative toward delivery and highlights alternative partners such as Avride, Motional, and Zoox, Walt questions Uber’s timeline claiming autonomous cost-per-trip parity won’t happen until the end of the decade.

Grayson and Walt also analyze the sudden departure of Uber’s President and Chief Corporate Affairs Officer, Jill Hazelbaker, to OpenAI, and Tesla’s pivot to wind down Cybertruck production by the middle of next year to make room for more Cybercab capacity at Giga Texas.

Out in the field, Special Field Correspondent Spencer witnessed the birth of a brand-new Waymo depot being loaded with vehicles overnight, while becoming the first person to ride in Robotaxi in Fort Worth. In Orlando, Grayson confirmed Waymo has opened a second depot.

In autonomous trucking, Kodiak is at 99% readiness and on track for driver-out operations by year-end. Operating on three different OEM platforms (PACCAR International and Daimler Truck), Kodiak provided clear guidance, projecting five unsupervised trucks over the road by year-end, 200 by 2027, and 5,000 by 2029.

Walt highlights Kodiak’s extreme capital efficiency, noting their sub-$40 million cash burn compared to Aurora’s $200 million-plus burn for the same $3 million in quarterly revenue. Daimler Truck’s Torc is also aiming to launch driver-out trucks on public roads before the end of 2026.

On the Foreign Autonomy Desk, Baidu Apollo Go is now live in 22 cities doing 250,000 fully driverless rides a week in China, WeRide is preparing to launch in Denmark by the first half of 2027, Wayve and Uber are launching safety-driver testing in Japan by year-end, and Marti Technologies is getting ready to deploy in Turkey.

Episode Chapters

• 0:00 Waymo’s Right Hook to Uber
• 5:11 Uber’s 700 Robotaxis
• 14:50 Uber’s Narrative Pivot to Delivery
• 18:31 Uber’s Jill Hazelbaker Departs for OpenAI
• 20:31 Winding Down Cybertruck for Cybercab
• 23:20 Tesla Robotaxi & Waymo Market Expansions
• 25:27 Lyft Earnings
• 28:54 Kodiak Earnings
• 36:14 Torc Aims for 2026 Driver-Out
• 37:26 Red Tape Desk: Texas Elections & the Threat of Local Robotaxi Control
• 39:43 Foreign Autonomy Desk
• 45:21 Next Week