Uber Sells the Dream, Waymo Logs the Autonomous Miles

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Uber’s new Autonomous Vehicle Solutions initiative, Waymo’s growing markets, and the growth of Physical AI powered by NVIDIA.

As Uber’s stock languishes in the low seventies due to investor overhang about the future of autonomy, the company announced Uber Autonomous Solutions, a new initiative to support the growth of autonomous vehicles on the Uber platform.

Grayson and Walt break down the initiative point by point, examining Uber’s strategy of providing training data, enriched mapping, venue management, and autonomous vehicle insurance. While Grayson views much of the in-car experience pitch as buzzword Alley, Walt argues that AV mission control and fleet management are the true meat of Uber’s strategy, aiming to provide the critical API for a fragmented market. This sparks a spirited debate on whether Uber is maintaining its asset-light identity or quietly creeping into asset-heavy operations by owning and operating robotaxi assets.

The conversation then shifts to the geopolitical risks of Uber’s international partnerships, as the company recently hosted analysts in Abu Dhabi to meet with Chinese autonomous partners WeRide and Baidu. Grayson warns of the tremendous blowback and political risk this carries back home, especially given the current US administration’s active stance on social media regarding foreign technology.

Walt and Grayson also discuss a recent broker report, shared by Uber CFO Balaji Krishnamurthy on X, that analyzed just 34 trips in Austin and claimed there is no cost advantage to autonomy. They call the sample size too small and the conclusions baffling given the obvious long-term benefits of removing human drivers.

Contrasting Uber’s narrative tour, Waymo is aggressively scaling and growing revenue. This week, Waymo announced they have crossed 1 million fully autonomous freeway miles, expanded into Chicago and Charlotte, and opened up Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and Orlando to early riders.

Notably, Uber was absent from these new market announcements, leading Grayson to point out the potentially waning relationship between the two companies. Furthermore, he put on his inspector hat to uncover signs of Waymo’s grand ambitions in the EU, citing meetings with the European Commission and job postings for EU regulatory counsel.

As Waymo scales, the capital markets are flowing for autonomy investments, highlighted by Wayve securing a $1.2 billion check at an $8.6 billion valuation. The round includes investments from SoftBank, NVIDIA, Stellantis, and Nissan, with Uber committing to own and operate the Wayve fleet in 10 upcoming markets, starting with London.

Then there is the growth of physical AI, which NVIDIA announced contributed $6 billion in earnings last quarter, with CFO Colette Kress signaling that robotaxis and humanoids are poised to be major growth markets over the next decade.

Episode Chapters

• 00:00 Uber’s Identity Crisis
• 1:33 Breaking Down Uber Autonomous Solutions
• 20:43 Uber’s Abu Dhabi Analyst Day & Chinese Tech Risks
• 35:37 Waymo Announces Chicago & Charlotte as New Markets
• 40:55 Uber and Waymo’s Waning Relationship
• 42:03 Waymo Surpasses 1 Million Fully Autonomous Freeway Miles
• 43:56 Waymo Eyes the EU Expansion
• 46:32 Wayve’s $1.2B Funding Round
• 50:39 NVIDIA, Physical AI, & Humanoids
• 53:04 Next Week