Uber’s Costly Pivot to Challenge Waymo’s Dominance
December 14, 2025
This Week in The Autonomy Economy is presented by Koop, a specialist insurance provider focused on robotics and autonomous vehicles.
This Week in the Autonomy Economy, Waymo continued to dominate the headlines, the European autonomy market continues to emerge and Rivian introduced Autonomy+.
Rivian’s Autonomy+ autonomous driving system fundamentally rejects the industry’s shift toward lighter, cheaper hardware. The system is powered by their new in-house RAP1 chip and features a sensor-dense array of 11 cameras, 5 radars (including a front-facing imaging radar), and a LiDAR.
To autonomously drive adoption, Rivian announced aggressive pricing for the software subscription, a one-time fee of $2,500 or $50 per month. However as ambitious as this project might be, it’s not Rivian’s most significant risk/reward.
That honor belongs to the company’s as it is increasingly intent on being everything to everybody. From manufacturing delivery vans, adventure trucks, mass-market SUVs to proprietary autonomous chips, and then a robotaxi network.
The scope of their everything ambition is so grand that Rivian is simultaneously incubating entirely new industries while still burning cash on it’s core business which remains unprofitable.
The evidence of this everything to everyone ambition is only growing as the company spent years internally developing an e-bike unit before finally spinning it out as Also, Inc. in 2025. Similarly, in November 2025, Rivian spun out Mind Robotics to build industrial automation bots using Rivian’s factory data.
While spinning these entities out theoretically reduces distraction, the fact that a company struggling to reach gross margin profitability on its cars was spending time building e-bikes and industrial robots points to a management team that struggles to say no.
Amazon succeeded as the everything store, but the open question remains, can Rivian succeed as the everything builder?
📰 Need to Know: This Week in the Autonomy Economy
How does Rivian’s new “Autonomy+” system defy current industry trends?
While the broader industry is shifting toward lighter and cheaper hardware, Rivian’s newly introduced Autonomy+ fundamentally rejects this approach. The system relies on a sensor-dense architecture powered by the new in-house RAP1 chip, featuring 11 cameras, 5 radars (including front-facing imaging radar), and a LiDAR. To drive adoption, Rivian announced aggressive pricing: a one-time fee of $2,500 or a subscription of $50 per month.
What is the major risk facing Rivian beyond its technology?
Rivian’s most significant risk is its ambition to be “everything to everybody” while its core business remains unprofitable. The company is simultaneously manufacturing delivery vans, adventure trucks, and mass-market SUVs, while also developing proprietary autonomous chips and a robotaxi network. Evidence of this “distracted” scope includes the recent spin-out of an e-bike unit (Also, Inc.) and an industrial bot unit (Mind Robotics), suggesting a management team that struggles to narrow its focus.
Why is Uber pivoting its strategy regarding autonomous assets?
Uber appears to be realizing that its “asset-light” aggregator strategy leaves it vulnerable, as Waymo (backed by Alphabet’s balance sheet) has proven it can scale demand without Uber. Consequently, Uber is initiating a strategic U-turn toward owning and operating assets again. This includes a deal to purchase 20,000 Lucid/Nuro powered robotaxis and a partnership with Stellantis and NVIDIA to manage a fleet of 5,000 vehicles. This shifts Uber from a high-margin software platform to a capital-intensive fleet operator.
How dominant has Waymo become in the U.S. market?
Waymo is solidifying its lead, having nearly doubled its weekly ride volume since April to 450,000 rides. The company is now operating fully autonomously across 10 U.S. cities and has begun employee rides at SFO. The text notes that Waymo is “on the cusp of becoming a verb,” creating an existential threat to Uber’s domestic moat as it secures lucrative airport routes.
Where is the global autonomy market expanding?
As the U.S. market consolidates around Waymo, competitors are looking abroad. Uber is targeting international scaling in markets like Hong Kong (partnering with Baidu Apollo Go), Tokyo and London (partnering with Wayve), and Munich (Momenta). Additionally, Stellantis and Bolt announced a partnership to deploy 100,000 robotaxis in Europe by 2035, and Mercedes-Benz is launching a luxury fleet in Abu Dhabi with Momenta and Lumo.
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What’s Moving the Markets
Uber’s Costly Pivot to Challenge Waymo’s Dominance
Uber’s narrative regarding robotaxis is becoming increasingly malleable. What began as a story about demand generation is rapidly shifting toward the advantages of international scaling. This rhetorical pivot invites a stark question, is Uber preparing to concede the lion’s share of the U.S. market to Waymo, repositioning itself in the UK, UAE, Europe, and Asia?
The contrast is sharp. Waymo has demonstrated that it does not have a demand problem and that it can scale without Uber. Waymo is operating fully autonomously across ten U.S. cities and is on the cusp of becoming a verb.
Meanwhile, Uber is looking abroad. Dara Khosrowshahi recently told Bloomberg that Uber plans to deploy robotaxis in more than ten markets next year, explicitly highlighting Hong Kong and Japan.
The likely roster of Uber’s international partners is coming into focus. We are going on the record with the following predictions for 2026:
- Hong Kong: Baidu Apollo Go
- Tokyo & London: Wayve
- Munich: Momenta (Previously announced)
The remaining markets will likely comprise a mix of Momenta, Baidu, and WeRide, with a Nuro/Lucid international entry potentially in 2028.
However, this international expansion leaves a glaring domestic void. Waymo’s weekly ride volume has nearly doubled since April to 450,000. By the time Uber’s international strategy matures, Waymo will likely be completing over 1 million rides a week in the U.S. alone.
The threat is existential. As Waymo secures lucrative airport routes, SFO is confirmed, with LAX likely to follow next year, Uber’s traditional rideshare moat begins to dry up.
How will the markets react if Uber’s core volume in major U.S. metros begins to decline as Waymo expands? Will management attempt to mask domestic erosion with international robotaxi growth, or pivot back to a marketplace aggregator narrative
Perhaps realizing that an aggregator strategy leaves them at the mercy of a robotaxi suppliers, Uber is quietly initiating a strategic u-turn. The company appears to be preparing to own, finance, and operate its own robotaxi assets once gain. Perhaps Uber could scale up this business, add real estate assets and perhaps spin it out as a REIT-like structure in the future.
The evidence is mounting with the deal to purchase and deploy 20,000 Lucid/Nuro powered robotaxis and a partnership with Stellantis and NVIDIA to manage a fleet of 5,000 robotaxis. But who will own the Stellantis fleet? Uber? This is not merely a partnership, it is an industrial pivot.
Uber has realized that Waymo doesn’t need them, no matter how much they try and tell the market the opposite. Waymo holds all cards with Alphabet’s balance sheet to back it up. To have a seat at the robotaxi table, Uber needs assets.
This moves Uber from a high-margin software platform to a capital-intensive fleet operator, managing the messy, heavy work of charging, cleaning, and insuring thousands of vehicles and further accelerating competition with Lyft’s Flexdrive.
The clock is ticking. By 2026, Waymo could be encroaching on Uber’s London share or expanding into continental Europe. Even Lyft is maneuvering, eyeing the UK and German markets through a Baidu partnership.
Uber is attempting a high-wire act, potentially conceding the U.S. lead to Waymo while frantically buying its own fleet to retain leverage, all while spinning a story of global dominance. As competition intensifies and the technology scales, Uber faces an identity crisis. It must decide quickly who it intends to be in an autonomous future. The current shapeshifting narrative is running out of road.
Will the real Uber please stand up?
Our Take: 2026 will be a year of big bets and big decisions. Choose wisely, the markets are watching.
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Piquing Our Interest
Waymo Surpasses 450,000 Rides a Week Waymo has surpassed 450,000 rides a week, nearly doubling its volume since April, when the company reported 250,000.
Waymo is Now Fully Autonomous in 10 Cities Operating fully autonomous in 10 cities, Waymo demonstrates daily that autonomy is solved. It is no longer a technology problem, it is a business challenge. Now it is time to build a profitable business.
Waymo at SFO is One Step Closer This week, Waymo employees began taking rides from SFO. Now, it is only a matter of time before the general public begins rides.
NYC DOT Extends Waymo’s Autonomous Driving Testing Permit The New York City Department of Transportation has extended Waymo’s autonomous driving permit through March 31, 2026. What happens after then is anyone’s guess.
Rivian Introduces Autonomy+ Rivian is now in the autonomy game with the introduction of Autonomy+, their autonomous driving system.
Wayve and Nissan to Scale Autonomy Together Beginning in 2027, the Wayve AI Driver will be natively integratedinto the next-generation Nissan ProPILOT series.
Less is More When it Comes to Scaling for Helm.ai Helm.ai has unveiled Factored Embodied AI, a new framework powering a vision-only AI driver capable of autonomous driving using just 1,000 hours of real-world data.
Stellantis and Bolt to Scale Robotaxis in Europe The European market for autonomy continues to remain hot as Stellantis and Bolt announced a partnership this week to deploy 100,000 robotaxis on the continent by 2035.
VW Begins Testing Bespoke Robotaxi in Germany Volkswagen has begun testing its bespoke Gen.Urban robotaxi in Wolfsburg.
WeRide and Uber Launch Robotaxi Service in Dubai WeRide robotaxis are now available on Uber in Dubai, with Tawasul handling fleet management operations.
Mercedes-Benz, Momenta and Lumo to Launch Luxury Robotaxi Fleet in Abu Dhabi The UAE continues to be one of the hottest robotaxi markets in the world. This week, Momenta, in partnership with Mercedes-Benz and Lumo, announced they will launch a luxury robotaxi service in the Emirate next year.
Serve Robotics Deploys 2,000 Autonomous Sidewalk Bots Serve Robotics is scaling. The company now operates the largest fleet of autonomous sidewalk bots in the U.S.
Aurora is Expanding to the Permian Basin Next year, Detmar Logistics will deploy Aurora Driver-powered autonomous trucks hauling frac sand with safety drivers in the Permian Basin, before transitioning to fully autonomous operations in the second half of 2026.
Vale, Caterpillar and Sotreq to Expand Autonomous Haul Truck Operations in Pará, Brazil Over the next five years, Vale, Caterpillar, and Sotreq will expand their autonomous haul truck fleet from 14 to 90 units, while increasing payload capacity to 400 tons per vehicle.
Social Buzz
Uber Goes on Defense
The faster Waymo scales, now surpassing 450,000 rides a week, the faster Uber is forced to play defense. Uber’s ‘demand-generation’ narrative was fundamentally flawed, and Waymo proves it wrong every single day.
Waymo isn’t just scaling, they are on their way to becoming a verb. Uber is now scrambling to shift the narrative to ‘operational scaling,’ even as multiple partners front-run them around the world.
The reality is undeniable: Robotaxis are scaling, and they offer a fundamentally superior product to traditional rideshare, defined by a safer, consistent experience.
Our take: The train has left the station. Robotaxis are scaling, and riders are embracing the superior product. The tipping point is imminent, once major U.S. airports come online, Uber will face a structural decline in ridership in major markets where Waymo operates at scale.
Latest The Road to Autonomy Podcast
How Robotaxis Solve the “RideShare Lottery” Problem
Edwin Olson, Founder & CEO of May Mobility joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss how autonomous vehicles can eliminate the “rideshare lottery”, the inconsistent, variable experience traditional rideshare by deploying fleet-managed robotaxis that offer a predictable, premium service.
Watch on YouTube | Spotify | X
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December 9, 2025
Latest Autonomy Markets Podcast
Rivian’s Vertical Integration Bet, Wayve’s Nissan Win & Uber’s Autonomy Narrative
This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Rivian’s bold vertical integration bet as the EV maker announced plans to build their own chips and lidar sensors, effectively moving away from NVIDIA.
Watch on YouTube | Spotify | X
Listen on Apple Podcasts
December 13, 2025
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