Transcript: Who is Winning the Robotaxi Heavyweight Fight? Waymo or Tesla?

Executive Summary

This week on Autonomy Markets, the autonomous vehicle landscape saw major moves from its two biggest players. Waymo announced significant expansions, planning to launch services in Denver and Seattle and adding airport service at San Jose International Airport. 

In response, Tesla opened the public waitlist for its Robotaxi app, which quickly climbed the app store charts. Grayson and Walt break down who “won the week,” the significant political and regulatory challenges Waymo faces in its new markets, and updates from the broader AV ecosystem, including Avride and Torc.

Key Topics & Timestamps

[00:00] Waymo vs. Tesla: Who Won the Week?

In Grayson and Walt’s opinions, Waymo “won the week” against Tesla. The week was described as a “heavyweight fight” between the two companies, with both announcing expansions. Grayson Brulte suggests a weekly scorecard and rotating between wearing a Waymo- and Tesla-branded shirt to show who won each week.

[02:00] Scaling Challenges: Can the Ecosystem Support Thousands of Robotaxis? 

The hosts question whether the current support ecosystem including charging, maintenance, and cleaning is prepared for the massive scale-up of autonomous fleets from hundreds of vehicles per month to thousands. While Waymo is currently adding hundreds of vehicles, the discussion centers on what happens when Hyundai begins mass production for Waymo or when Tesla’s technology allows them to deploy thousands of vehicles at once. It is noted that most third-party ecosystem companies are currently building for Waymo’s needs, while Tesla’s plan for large-scale depot and servicing infrastructure remains less clear.

[05:00] Waymo’s Expansion to Denver and Seattle 

Waymo announced it is expanding to Denver and Seattle. Denver is notable because it will be the first city to feature a “mixed use” fleet of both Jaguar I-PACEs and Zeekr vehicles. The choice of Denver and Seattle is seen as a “flex” by Waymo to demonstrate its technology’s capability in cities that experience more severe weather, including snow.

[08:00] Will Uber Be Part of Waymo’s New City Launches? 

The hosts debate whether Uber will be a launch partner in Denver and Seattle, as no partner was mentioned in Waymo’s announcement. Grayson Brulte argues that Uber will not be involved, pointing out that previous launches in Austin and Atlanta were branded “exclusively available on Uber” from the initial announcement, which was absent this time. Walter Piecyk remains unconvinced, speculating that a partner, possibly Uber, could still be announced before the services officially go live.

[10:00] Regulatory Hurdles and Political Opposition in Seattle

While the legal framework for AVs exists in Colorado, there is currently no regulatory framework in Washington State for deploying commercial autonomous vehicles without a driver. The hosts highlight a significant political challenge in Seattle, where the likely next mayor is a self-declared socialist and public transit advocate who has expressed a desire to ban personal cars. This raises questions about the wisdom of Waymo’s policy team choosing to expand into a potentially hostile regulatory environment.

[16:00] U.S. DOT Moves Toward a National AV Framework 

The Department of Transportation (DOT) made progress toward a national framework for autonomous vehicles. The DOT will remove requirements for human-centric vehicle components in 2026, such as transmission shift interlocks, windshield defrosting systems, and certain lamps. While a full national framework requires an act of Congress, these moves are seen as a positive step and a signal from the Trump administration that it is “pro-innovation” and “pro-autonomy”.

[20:00] Waymo Adds San Jose Airport Service; SFO Still Delayed 

Waymo expanded its service in San Jose to include the airport, an unlock that was “purely regulatory” and supported by the airport commissioner. The hosts had predicted this move five months prior. In contrast, service to San Francisco International Airport (SFO) remains delayed due to politics and “stalling tactics”. Unlocking SFO is more complex because it requires approval from a full airport commission and faces political pressure from special interest groups aiming to stifle competition.

[24:00] Tesla Opens Robotaxi App Waitlist to the Public 

Tesla expanded its Robotaxi service by opening the waitlist for its app to the general public. This move is seen as a significant milestone, marking the beginning of scaling the robotaxi service to become a business. The app saw immediate interest, becoming the number one most downloaded travel app and the number eight most downloaded free app overall on the iOS App Store.

[27:00] Prediction: Who Will Achieve Driver-Out on Highways First? 

Grayson and Walt make predictions on whether Waymo or Tesla will be the first to operate a fully driverless service for paying passengers on highways. Walter Piecyk believes Tesla will be first to operate on highways with a “safety attendant” (in the passenger seat), but not fully empty. Grayson Brulte predicts that by December 31, 2025, Waymo will be the first to operate a fully driver-out service with paying passengers on highways in select markets.

[30:00] Avride Launches in Dallas on the Uber Platform 

Avride announced it is launching its autonomous ride-hailing service in Dallas on the Uber platform by the end of the year. The service will initially launch with safety drivers, which is believed to be part of a phased, safety-first approach rather than a regulatory requirement, as Texas law permits fully driverless operation.

[33:00] First Look at Tensor Auto 

Walt visited Tensor Auto in New York City to see its vehicle, which features a steering wheel that retracts into the dashboard. He noted the company has ambitious plans to deliver cars manufactured by VinFast in Vietnam to Dubai by the end of next year. However, he expressed confusion over why the company would only offer a vehicle demonstration in a parking lot rather than on public roads if they are so close to production.

[35:00] Daimler Truck Seeks Funding for Torc’s $660M Annual Burn 

A Bloomberg article revealed that Daimler Truck is seeking to raise external capital to help fund its autonomous trucking subsidiary, Torc. The article reported that Torc has an annual cash burn of $660 million. This figure is contrasted with Aurora’s $676 million annual spend and Kodiak’s total fundraising of only $243 million since its founding eight years ago.

Watch the Full Episode of Autonomy Markets

Full Episode Transcript

Grayson Brulte: Walt, congratulations. After delay, the Eagles pulled it off. So to our listeners and viewers, we have happy Walt today. Not cranky Walt, but happy Walt is coming to us Live from the city of Brothery Love. Philadelphia after a tremendous Eagles win and in the autonomy markets, there’s no sleep in the Beastie Boys famously said, there’s no sleep till Brooklyn in autonomy. There’s no sleep till autonomy becomes a business. And boy oh boy. This week the mart markets really kicked into high gear. Tesla announced expansions. Waymo announced expansions going to the San Jose airport, which we called going to Denver and going to Seattle. Walt busy week, I gotta say this. Waymo Tesla is shaping up to be a heavyweight fight. Is this a Tyson Holyfield thing? And And who do you think this is going? Because this week me, the first round goes to Waymo. What do you think? 

Walter Piecyk: It is definitely very fun and there’s clearly a competitive component between these two, these two mega companies. At the same time, we’re not gonna fall asleep on the field and, and we promise to continue to dedicate time. To the host of others, whether trucking or even autonomy, um, that are out there and, you know, making real progress. And we’ll get to one of those later, later in this podcast. By the way, thank you for wearing a Kelly Green, a GB shirt today in honor of the Eagles victory. I really appreciate that. But yeah, to your point, I agree this week goes to Waymo. I mean, and we’ll get to the, the Waymo expansion. You know, in a couple of markets as well as the airport, um, on the news front. So, good job for Waymo this week. This, this week goes to them. Maybe we have, we’ll have a weekly scorecard on this stuff.

Grayson Brulte: A weekly scorecard would be great. Oh, I have, I’ll make this even better for you. How about I get a, a Waymo green shirt and, and a and a Tesla Robotaxi shirt and I could rotate ’em each week, and that’s how you know who won.

Walter Piecyk: I love that idea. Definitely love that idea.

Grayson Brulte: And don’t worry, they’ll, they’ll, they’ll be fully branded. As we watch this heavyweight fight, what do you think happens when all suddenly Tesla announces, Hey, we’ve got a thousand robotaxis in the market. Do people, the not so nice people start to take this more seriously? 

Walter Piecyk: this was a big week for, for Waymo for sure. But if Tesla did that, that would be obviously the mother of all advancements given their manufacturing capability. But I think Waymo can have a similar event in that we’re waiting for, you know, right now they’re still setting a bunch of cars to be outfitted. So, you know, once they start cranking Hyundais off the line, you have significantly more product hitting the market. That’s also gonna be a big event. So there will be some weeks that are much bigger than others. Um, but I do like the idea of you picking a winner between these two. But again, maybe that’s not a great idea because we can’t fall asleep on. Wayve on Nuro on May, mobility on the host of other companies. Sorry if I haven’t mentioned yours, that are out there that I think still have a shot at being a leader in this industry.

Grayson Brulte: We’ll continue to cover ’em, but you also have to look at the big dogs. And on the Hyundai front, I’ll say this for the record, 2026 is gonna be a big year for Hyundai. You have the Waymo’s coming off the line. You have the the Avrides. And you’re right, we will cover the entire ecosystem, continue to monitor it, ’cause you never know who could eventually move into a bigger leadership position.

Walter Piecyk: And speaking of the ecosystem, I mean, part of our day-to-day on this, you and I both do it, but I mean, I, in, in recent weeks, I’ve spent even more time on that. That leg of the stool that’s so important, charging, maintenance, cleaning, , and they’re making progress. There’s still a lot of time, there’s innovative solutions that are emerging, I think on the, the powering side of things, but I guess the issue is we’re seeing hundreds of Waymo’s maybe hitting the street every month. Now we know that process. We’ve covered it well, that’s digestible for what’s in the market today. What, Grayson, what happens when it’s thousands Hyundai’s production level, or you have the huge unlock at Tesla where the technology gets to a point where they just are lighting up Y’s, left and right. Can, is the ecosystem prepared for that in this moment or does it still need more time? 

Grayson Brulte: I don’t necessarily know if the ecosystem’s prepared for it. The market’s prepared for it, and autonomy becomes a business when that happens. And. Waymo, right now we know has 2000 vehicles. Let’s say when they have 3000, 4,000, 10,000, Tesla has a similar amount. Where does the OEM come? Does the OEM become a contract manufacturer or did the card shift where you really need the OEM to scale with the two leading companies in autonomy? That’s something we’re gonna have to watch.

Walter Piecyk: I mean. Again, I just, I’m gonna use your own numbers against you. 2000, 3000. Impressive. I don’t mean to take anything away from Waymo that is like stuff that they at some point will be adding into the market on a monthly basis. Right. And not too far away once you get, whether it’s Hyundai or they announce some, some new manufacturing partner. So I don’t know. I mean it’s um, you know, it’s interesting. We also need a cleaner picture on Tesla when we talked to this ecosystem. Everyone’s basically building for Waymo and the others that are in the space, but it’s anyone engaging on a third party basis with Tesla. I mean, on my way down to Philly here, I drove the, my Model Y, , you know, I took it to a supercharger in an Ikea lot, Grayson, that can’t be converted to a Robotaxi service center. It’s a parking lot of an Ikea. So you can’t convert that, you know, your supercharger network. I don’t think maybe there’s a certain percentage of that you can. So where is Tesla’s game plan for this important component of how this is gonna work? Or is it all gonna be private ownership and everyone maintains their own cars? 

Grayson Brulte: The Supercharging network will play a critical role as we go to personally owned avs. It could be used to charge Robotaxi incrementally, but I believe that you will see a series of Tesla owned and operated depots appear around the United States, very similar to what you’re seeing with the Avomo depot, which we visited in Austin. The Moove IO depots. At some point you will see Tesla ones pop up. But let’s, let’s move on to Waymo and, and their expansion. This is, we got news this week that Waymo’s expanding to Seattle and to Denver. A couple things that really stood out to me on that expansion. Waymo announced that Denver will become the first mixed use city, where there’ll be Jaguar I-PACEs and Zeekrs. So we know the Zeekrs are getting deployed. What do you make of that expansion to the Mile High City? Somebody’s gonna join the Mile High Club in a Waymo, but what do you make of that expansion? 

Walter Piecyk: I mean, there’s a couple things to unpack. First, I have to say, I’m surprised given our concern on supply and what we’ve been tracking, thanks to that, that, person that is taking drone photos, um, not for us, but for, for the community. So I’m concerned, I’m not concerned, but. I, I, I’m surprised, right. Let’s start with the weather on lock though, right? Denver gets snow. I mean, I think Denver plows pretty well and like, you know, maybe some other cities that like DC that shuts down, if they have like a quarter inch of, of precipitation, you know, is the weather, is that a flex just to say, Hey, we’re, we’re doing Seattle, which has some weather, but Denver, which maybe has some more severe weather.

Grayson Brulte: It could be. I sure flex, but if you look at historical weather patterns in Denver, yes, we do research on autonomy markets. The snow comes and it’s gone within a couple days.

Walter Piecyk: Right. So, but there’s still snow that happens, right? That has to drive through the snow and, you know, again, maybe that’s a, maybe that’s your reason. You pick, you pick those markets, is to flex on that front. The other thing on you mentioned is Zeekr and the, and the Hyundai. I don’t think on day one you’re gonna be able to pick which car you want. I think I had never been in a Zeekr. I saw it on the trade show floor that wouldn’t allow people to actually sit in it, know these people that didn’t have an, an, an invitation to. So, but it seemed like a more spacious car. I, I might prefer Zeekr to me, you know, given I’m a larger guy, um, I’d probably be more comfortable in Zeekr, but I don’t think on day one from what I understand, you’ll be able to pick that. The Zeekr, but I think over time as Waymo expands and hits scale, I assume that you’ll be able to pick the size of the car. I mean, once I have highways, I’m gonna want to have like a larger SUV to go on some trip as opposed to trying to stuff myself into a jag with, with a couple of family members.

Grayson Brulte: That’s only possible if there’s the Waymo app, not Uber. ’cause you can’t pick your vehicle on Uber. It goes back to the Forest Gump line. Life is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you’re gonna get. And part of this announcement, not one mention of Uber, but I also will caveat that, that there wasn’t a mention of any partner, but it seems very odd. No mention of Uber.

Walter Piecyk: Okay. Well, lemme just unpack a couple things you just said there. I mean. Yeah, and you can’t do that on Uber today, but there’s no reason why Uber in the future at first, I dunno what’s taking so long, but gets, gets like a, you know, a Waymo app that will feed you a Jag or a Zeekr, but there’s no reason that at some point Uber couldn’t add Waymo, JAG, Waymo, you know, Zeekr or base it on size. So I don’t, I push back on that. In terms of the partnerships, you’re right, there are no partnerships announced on Denver and Seattle. I’m gonna go again, go counter grain to this. I’ve, every time there’s been a reaction, let’s go back to Austin and some of that, you know, yip it data and then go into the next market. Like, just because there’s no partner announced today doesn’t mean there won’t be one prior to when Denver and Seattle actually launch. In fact, I would think that there will be one now that partner could be an Avis, a third party, but Waymo doesn’t want to build. I don’t think that element of the stool, that third element of the stool, that part of the ecosystem that you and I both find so important. I, so I think there’s still an opportunity for Uber to step into those Denver and Seattle markets. I don’t have, I don’t have no idea. There’s a pure speculation. Um, but there, I think there will be a partner announced prior to launch, and I’m not gonna rule out Uber will you? 

Grayson Brulte: Yes, and I’m gonna use Waymo’s own words against them. When Waymo announced Austin and when they announced Atlanta, which I call the Double As exclusively available on Uber, was the exact branding, the time they, they announced the city not launched the city. The same campaigns in both cities. Denver, nothing. No announcement. Seattle, no announcement. So I’m gonna say no. Do I believe there will be an Infrastructure Depot partner? Yes. Is it Avis? That’s that’s anyone’s guess. Is it a Avomo? It’s anyone’s guess. Is it Moove IO? That’s anyone’s guess, but I do believe at some point there, there will be a Depot partner, or perhaps there’s a depot partner that Waymo’s currently negotiating, but we don’t know with yet that they want to test. But no, I do not see this being an Uber market.

Walter Piecyk: I love your certainty, and I’m not gonna say with certainty there is an Uber market, but. I’m not as convinced as you are that that Uber is, is outta the mix in terms of those two markets. Um, the other question I have for you, Grayson, is I thought avs autonomous vehicles were not permitted in those cities based on regulations. So like, I assume that they expect to hash that out, but, but by the time that they launch, but like why even. It gets back to the age old question, why bother with these cities that don’t like you and maybe find more cities that are, are more embracing of new technology? 

Grayson Brulte: we had a scare earlier this year with Colorado looking to ban autonomous vehicles. They are legal, they’re able to operate in Colorado. The Colorado governor came out and endorsed Waymo going there, so I want to clarify that for the record. So the legal framework is there, but in in Washington State, Seattle, no. There is no regulatory framework to deploy. Commercial autonomous vehicles with driver-out. You can do testing with a driver behind a safety wheel. Now you cannot deploy and there’s a pattern emerging here. You go into Boston, you have Mayor Wu doesn’t want you. We, we can get in the headlines if you want. You go into New York , you get permission from Mayor Adams, but let’s just look at polling. If all points to it, mayor Adam is not gonna be the next mayor. It’s gonna be Mondavi. And so you have those politics that are merging there . you have those politics there. And then if you look at Seattle, you have a boy, oh boy, you have a situation evolving. You have a pre a mayor that is polling over 50% coming in 12 years in transit that wants to do one thing Walt,. Gimme a drum roll here. Ban personal vehicles and force everybody into transit. So here come the bullets. Oh, oh, you just say this. 12 years as an advocate for this. She’s a self-declared socialist who wants to ban cars. So wh why announce you’re going there when you have this regulatory environment and all the polling data points to this individual becoming the next mayor? I, I don’t get it. This seems to me that this is a Boston 2.0 mistake.

Walter Piecyk: I love when we get to the part of the podcast where Grayson hits the boy. Oh boy. Um, I don’t know. What socialism, you know, whether someone is that or not has anything to do with autonomous vehicles. I think in, in some, you know, countries, obviously autonomous vehicles are thriving. In terms of public transit advocates, I mean, that also is a head scratcher because it’s like what we covered last week with cyclist advocates when autonomy can in fact save their lives for the reasons we outlined. Same thing with public transit. I mean, you’re getting. People to not own their cars, right? To, to use cheaper robotaxis, which by the way, are electric and better for the environment. And you know, I don’t think you, we do have any gas powered, uh, autonomous fleets that are out there. And then if someone is now using an autonomous fleet, they’re more, probably more likely to use public transit and integrate that. I think Uber’s actually done that in terms of integration to their app. So. Like to the extent that they, and I don’t know, I don’t know if they are or they aren’t in this market, but to the extent that they public transit advocates would be against autonomous fleets. Autonomous fleets are effectively a form of public transit. So it’s kind of a bizarre view.

Grayson Brulte: It’s not a form of public transit. It it is. It is private enterprise and these certain advocates believe that it should be owned and operated by the government. You should put 30 to 40 people. In a vehicle here and and the individual who is most likely to become the mayor of Seattle. Her name is Katie Wilson. She’s the co-founder of the Seattle Transit Riders Union. I said 12 years experience. I checked the notes. She has 15 years experience and I wanna read you a quote from her campaign manager here that Share with Streets blogs. His name is Alex Gallo Brown and Mr. Brown stated the following in a public statement to Street blog and quote, many people in Seattle are hungry for a city that doesn’t require car dependency in order to live a good life. I’m gonna ask you point blank, that’s the campaign manager. I’m reading between the lines here. I’m putting on my political hat. That’s an outright movement towards potentially banning a vehicle. So here’s the question. Who the heck is running Waymo policy and why are these decisions being made? 

Walter Piecyk: for sure like public ownership of stuff, you know, fits the isms that you’re trying to put on there. But I’m saying like in markets where. You know, they have public transit, state-owned, public transit. They also allow autonomy in private vehicles. So my, my only point is that. If you know, it is consistent with getting rid of, of consumer private ownership to embrace autonomy. Because ultimately if autonomy can deliver you a price per mile that’s below the cost to own a car, then you’re gonna naturally shift there. Now obviously there’s a difference between letting the markets do that and and have the market dynamics get to that end game, versus others believe that you want government with their heavy hand to do that. You know, I get it there. There’s a difference there. But ultimately, if you kind of. If you’re really intent on helping the environment, improving traffic, and again, something that we’ve said before, saving lives, like, does anyone out there care about saving the, the 40,000 deaths that occur on our roads every year? Like, does that ever factor into it? And like getting to a point that, you know, you’re gonna get to that, that’s gonna achieve that goal. But, you know, I digress and hopefully these things, and again, I think the bigger issue, as I said before, is that. When other cities, um, implement and embrace autonomy, they see a reduction in deaths. They see how it, it helps, um, on a variety of fronts. It’s just gonna put pressure on those that what those cities that have resisted.

Grayson Brulte: And you know what else it does? When cities embrace autonomy, and this is multiple, and I wanna say this is public data that you can go source from the cities, you see a sharp decline in DUIs and if you speak with police officers, law enforcement officers. And you say, why is that? They said, because people can get in and they don’t have to talk to anybody. And they still sense that they have their sense of freedom because there is the driver issue. If you’re intoxicated and I’m dead serious, and that’s public data. So there, there’s a lot of good that comes with this. A lot, a lot of good.

Walter Piecyk: Now Grayson, there’s another angle on this, which is like, you know, stuff that we’ve talked about with the new administration, which is a national framework. And I got a lot of inbounds this week ’cause there was some news out of the Department of Transportation, um, and Secretary Duffy, making some progress. Is, was that part of a movement towards the national framework? 

Grayson Brulte: It’s a very positive step in the right direction towards a national framework. I, I want to clarify for the listeners and viewers, in order to enact a national framework, it has to be an act of Congress Signed by the president. It cannot be done by an executive order or by our wonderful Secretary of Transportation, Mr. Duffy. But it’s a really positive step in the right direction of laying the groundwork and the framework to enable Congress to introduce. Hopefully pass and the president to sign a national autonomous vehicle framework.

Walter Piecyk: But what exactly happened this week? What was the change that happened in the Department of Transportation? 

Grayson Brulte: I’m gonna put on policy Wonka here. So I’m warning you ’cause I gotta, I gotta read these to you here. From the notes, it will remove the requirement that a transition transmission shift position, sequence, starter interlock, and transmission braking. So basically means that a human has to put the car into gear. So that’s what that means. That rule now is going away in 2026. Another rule going away requirement is windshield defrosting and defogging systems. Okay? So if you’re in an autonomous vehicle, you don’t have to have the systems. That’s no longer gonna become a requirement. Then the last one is lamps reflected devices and associated equipment are going away. It’s all the things that you have to have on a traditional car that’s operated by a human that are going away. It’s a big positive step.

Walter Piecyk: So for that first one, I just think about, because yesterday I started my trip in my garage and I hit FSD and to initiate it, you know, Tesla basically has you touch the brake. So I guess the difference is I won’t have to touch the brake in terms of the private ownership to get it started. I can just walk in with my phone and, and get and have it go. Is that, do you think that’s the reason they have you touch the brake before the FSD starts? 

Grayson Brulte: Ladies and gentlemen, Walt’ a policy analyst now. Way to go, Walt. You nailed it. Yes.

Walter Piecyk: Oh, that’s funny. Well, um, I guess it’s a good step, but how does this step from Duffy send a message to Congress? It feels like Congress is its own kind of crazy beast that has to, that beats to its own drum. Like does this really have anything to do with the national framework or is just, you know, Duffy doing what he can do, but obviously we have to wait for an act of Congress here.

Grayson Brulte: It has a lot to do with the national framework, and it sends a message to the markets that you so brilliantly cover, and it sends a market to industry that President Trump and the Trump administration. Is a, is a pro innovation, pro autonomy, pro-growth administration, and that they want to see this technology happen and, and thrive and prosper in America.

Walter Piecyk: So let’s go back to the expansion. ’cause that’s, that’s the theme of the overall podcast. It wasn’t just, um, Denver and Seattle that were added, but in San Jose, Waymo also added the airport. Which was great. I don’t know though if that unlock was regulatory or technology. I think one of the things that we’ve talked about before in terms of San or San Francisco, SFO, was the fact that in order to get to that airport, you can, you have to get on the highway. And Waymo hadn’t unlocked the highway. So in San Jose, I think what I remember about it, , is you, that you, you can get there on a local road. And I think also glide ways is, is building an a, you know, quote unquote autonomous connection into the San Jose airport as well. So maybe it’s just there that it’s a regulatory, they’re much more embracing of technology, maybe the San Jose airport, , because I think you can get there without highway. My, what am I missing here? What, what’s your read on the San Jose in terms of what the, what the unlock was there? 

Grayson Brulte: The unlock was purely regulatory. If you see the public statement made by the airport commissioner that they, they want this technology there. The San Jose airport views their, this is in quote there as the gateway to Silicon Valley. They wanted to embrace this technology and I want to point out to our listeners and viewers, we collectively, ’cause we are together. Called this five months ago when we said September. So we called this five months ago on Autonomy Markets. So I wanna take a moment to pat ourselves on the back. We called it.

Walter Piecyk: you love the, the back padding. So maybe you called it, I don’t remember calling it myself, so I think you can pat your, pat your home back on that one. You know, San Francisco though to me is more interesting. No offense to San Jose, lovely city. But for San Fran, they still haven’t unlocked the highways. We still see stuff online in terms of. Waymo’s on the highways. So they continue to test, test, test, test, test. Right. Like what do you think the, the holdup is at, at at San Francisco and is it possible that like Waymo’s just like, look, we’re not, even though we can do highways today, we’re not gonna do it until we get the airport. That seems kind of silly, but what do you think the holdup is? 

Grayson Brulte: Politics. Politics, politics, politics, politics. And I wanna read a statement here from you, from the SFO spokesperson that was given to SFGate this week. And I’m gonna quote this. His name is Mr. Doug Kelm, quote. We continue to meet with Waymo on the terms of a permit for operations at SFO. No timeline set for this, but we’re actively meeting on this. That’s gibberish. One second of all, that’s called stalling tactics. There is political pressure from certain special interests, which I will not name today ’cause I don’t want to get in a fight that that will, that do not want Waymo to operate at the airport. The way it’s structured with the commission that oversees it, it’s gonna be a lot more difficult from a political regulatory standpoint to operate SFO than it was from San Ho San Jose. ’cause the airport commissioner of San Jose has the ability, the legal authority to make that decision made that decision. San Francisco, you have to go to a complete Air Airport Commission. If you look at the backgrounds from bios as individuals to Waymo, you got an uphill road. I’m really sorry.

Walter Piecyk: And it, it definitely seems political given my experience at San Francisco because. When you get off at San Francisco, Uber is very well integrated, meaning that if I pay more and I get like a business car or a black car service, whatever, whatever the category they call it, in that city, I can get picked up basically right at the curb at the airport. I know you don’t like to walk. I don’t mind walking when you walk. They have these basically parking garage. It’s very well organized. I, it would seem quite easy for them just to enable a Waymo to go in there. And clearly we’ve been in enough Waymo’s to know that that technology can easily handle the parking garage pickup situation that exists today for Uber. So, you know, so you know, you can handle it. You’ve got the capacity to handle it. So like, I don’t, you know, it’s really kind of pathetic that they’re preventing competition. Further citizens ’cause competition is what drives prices down and is good for the consumer. Why is San Francisco anti-consumer Grayson? 

Grayson Brulte: Special interest, special interest lobbyist. There’s the old saying, follow the money. There’s a reason that you said here, very well organized. We have to walk. No, we didn’t. When you and I are in Austin, we’re huffing it out to nowhere land. You go to Las Vegas airport, you huff it out to nowhere land. San Francisco up an elevator that’s broken half the time or or escalators. Walk here, walk here, do, do, do. It’s not well organized. I’m sorry. It’s stifle what the reason it was done. You hit the nail on the head. It’s called stifling competition to protect the incumbents. That’s all This is point blank.

Walter Piecyk: Grayson everyone needs to get their steps in. By the way, people, it’s no longer 10,000, it’s 8,000. Just get your 8,000 steps in. Whether it’s an airport or otherwise for, for more longevity. But by the way, so Waymo was not the only company that was expanding. We had a Tesla expansion this week in a different way in that they opened the wait list, , for the, you know, getting the Robotaxi app. So rather than, you know, obviously we were able to get access to that about a month ago. And you can go back to our video and, and our experience in Austin, but now anyone can. Can download the app. I think there’ll still probably be wait list given the limitation of cars that they have in that market. ’cause you still have a safety attendant in the car, but that this is a milestone. Uh, met for Tesla, 

Grayson Brulte: Walt, the fitness director, called it a milestone. So it, it is a milestone. It is a milestone here, but to me, what this symbolizes is the beginning of Robotaxis. One, becoming a business and two scaling. You go through X and you see all these photos and, and, and videos of people enjoying and using service. Yes. There’s a safety attendant in, in California. Yes, there’s a safety tenant in the passenger seat in Austin, but this marks the beginning of truly scaling Robotaxi to become a business.

Walter Piecyk: Well, first of all, I want to just clarify some language, the way I’m gonna use it, ’cause I think we will. Given our weekly podcast, we’re gonna start defining terms for this industry and we’re gonna get it in a lexicon of people. Safety driver is what they have in California ’cause he’s in the driver’s seat safety attendant. When someone’s in the passenger seat, that is what I’m gonna call it from, from now on. They have a safety driver in California. They have a safety attendant there. But look, it’s, it’s. Find that they’re, they’re gonna have potentially more critical people. I think there might be still some control of who they put on there and, and not, but, but, you know, it’s not a mega side. This is why we said earlier in the podcast that Waymo clearly won this week based on their advancements. But there were some tangible, you know, almost like free advertising and the fact that Robotaxi did pretty well on the iOS app store. What, what, what data do you have on that Grayson? 

Grayson Brulte: The data we have and the free category for travel, the number one most downloaded app, and overall for free apps, the number eight most downloaded app. So there’s clearly interest and there’s clearly traction, whether that converts or not unsure, but people are downloading app.

Walter Piecyk: I mean, that is great for discovery. Not that Tesla has a branding issue. I mean, they sell a shit ton of Teslas with really no advertising. But certainly for Robotaxi, something. You know, something more positive. Also I think this week, or, you know, you saw the board is looking at incenting Elon with maybe a trillion dollar stock award or something like that. I haven’t looked at the details yet, but I can’t wait to see the milestones. I would guess that a lot of them are gonna be, are gonna be tied to the pro, the progress of, of, uh, robotaxi. But when you put a financial milestone like that, there again, it’s, this is not something that’s, that’s not obviously a focus. Obviously, this is the, the future for Tesla. It’s certainly not gonna be just selling cars. It’s gonna be getting autonomy to work so that you have, you know, even more demand for these cars.

Grayson Brulte: It’s autonomy and it’s also optimist. And if we go back about a decade, remember with the first pay package, oh he will never achieve it. He’ll never achieve it. He’ll never achieve it. All the, the, the chattering class on is he achieved it. Uh, I mean, this isn’t, this is a major milestone. My whole thing, and I’ll say this right publicly, you don’t bet against the gentleman. He’s delivered. Yes, the timeline slips, but you, you, you don’t bet against him. But I wanna ask you for a prediction here. Tesla, with Robotaxi, he started putting, paying passengers on highways. Yes, with a safety driver. But prediction row here, who unlocks driver out on the highway first? Waymo or Tesla? Robotaxi In any market, not all markets, but any market.

Walter Piecyk: Well, that’s why I think it was good that I defined the terms of safety driver versus safety attendance. So if you consider driver out. Moving the safety driver into the passenger seat, thereby calling him a safety attendant, then sure, like Tesla could get there before. Before Waymo. And like what I’ve seen in tele in the world of telecom is like when AT&T is about to announce something. T-Mobile always tries to announce something the day before or you’ll notice the day at and t reports earnings. T-Mobile will always like announce something did before. So I’m sure the people at Waymo. Are, are keeping a close eye on when they, you know, when they’re gonna go to highways so that they can try and open up a highway in California to, uh, to get there before them. ’cause you know, it’ll be on our clock, right? We, we will, we will. Then now that we’re on a focus on it, we will advertise this, this company got there first. Although, again, in defense of our Waymo’s, our Waymo fans out there. ’cause we’ve got Waymo fans and Tesla fans that are listeners to the podcast. And we love, again, all the interaction, especially last week. Another great. Set of feedback, um, from the, from the podcast, the Waymo people will legit have a legit argument saying like, safety attendant highway is not the same as driver out. What, what say you to that Grayson.

Grayson Brulte: I’m gonna go back to you, professor Walt. How do we define the terms? Because Elon tweeted on September 4th, the following. The safety driver is just there for the first few months to be extra safe. Should be no safety driver by the end of the year. How is he defining safety driver? That’s the question.

Walter Piecyk: I think he’s, defining it as I just did, which is you move him to the passenger seat or her, and that is what he is saying, safety driver through safety driver. And then there’s, there’s the attend. And by the way, there is a difference if someone’s not sitting there with their hands, basically hovering on the over the wheel. There is a difference there. But, um, so I guess I’m gonna flip the question back to you so I’m saying that, that Tesla will get there first with a safety attendant, but my question is, which will get there first with no one from the company at least. In either of the driver or the, or the, uh, front passenger seat 

Grayson Brulte: I believe by the end of the year, so we are September by December 31st, 2025 in select markets. Waymo will be operating full driver-out On highways probably to start under limited circumstances, but I do believe it will be Waymo first 

Walter Piecyk: and taking passengers.

Grayson Brulte: paying passengers.

Walter Piecyk: Okay, so there you have it. That’s, you know, that’s kind of the safe, that’s kind of the safe bet there. So that’s fine. So again, so good. So expansion, right? So highway with a safety driver. So Tesla had nice expansion, nice progress Waymo wins this week. What else do we have in the world of autonomy, Grayson 

Grayson Brulte: You said it right? We’re covering the entire ecosystem, not just Tesla, not just Waymo. This week, Avride officially announced that they’re launching service in Dallas on the Uber platform By the end of the year, I believe they’re gonna launch with safety drivers at first, but this is another partner coming onto the Uber network in a new market.

Walter Piecyk: So is this safety driver, you think a regulatory issue? ’cause it’s not new that the, that they’re gonna be in Dallas with, with Uber. In that timeline. I think that that’s been talked about before. We got out on the road. We have video of this on autonomy markets of us in the backseat of a, an AVride or AVride, however you pronounce it. With no driver in the no safety driver. They had a safety attendant, Grayson meaning a person in the passenger seat. I’m gonna, I’m gonna definitely make this, this new terminology work. No, safety driver. Safety attendant. So let’s get back to the story here. What. Why in and when they start in Dallas, are they doing safety driver? Is it just to be safe? Is it regulatory? What’s the deal here? 

Grayson Brulte: I believe it’s to be safe and they’re taking a, a phased approach. I could see a very similar approach to Tesla. They start with a safety driver and using wall’s term, they move to a safety attendant and they, they move to full complete driver. I believe it’s, it’s a phased approach. The regulatory environment in Texas today allows for full driver out the question, which we do not know, which we have listeners at Uber. Was this a requirement of Uber or was this AVride taking a very cautious safety first approach? That’s something that we should hopefully learn.

Walter Piecyk: I will say this, Uber is not PACCAR and for our listeners, you know what I’m referring to, which is that PACCAR is the truck partner to , Aurora, and they’re super conservative and force them to put the safety driver in. I think Uber is more technology forward. And probably they are not the, I don’t my guess, I have no idea. But they are not the restrictor here. I think this is just this company, um, you know, trying to step and, and look the other, the other thing to do is like. If you start with a safety driver and then take the safety driver out, you create another news cycle of people talking about the company. We will talk about AVride here again on the autonomy markets when they take that safety driver in out in Dallas. We will also be talking about them when we get back in their cars again. We’re, I think we’re the only ones with video of the car with the driver out. We’ll get back in there again in Dallas, we, we plan to spend a lot of time in Texas over the next year for trucking and autonomy. So it maybe it’s just a new cycle, , aspect as well. But it’s good to get out on the road and see this and see this, you know, we met the team there and it’s, and it’s, uh, great to see this progress for them in, in Dallas.

Grayson Brulte: It was great to meet the team and it was their Hyundai partner and the vehicles we manufactured by Hyundai and we love getting out on the road in Autonomy Markets this week. You got out on the road, you’re in Philadelphia now, but earlier in the week, you were in New York and you went and visited Tensor Auto. What did you learn? What did you see? 

Walter Piecyk: I headed into the city that’s not quite the same type of travel as, as heading to Texas or Atlanta or, or Ann Arbor or these other places that we’ve gone to see this car. It was parked in front of the Citi conference. Thank you for the listeners that. That recognized me and, and said hello while I was checking out this car and, and talking to them. We definitely have more to learn with tensor. They have what seems to me is very ambitious plans to get to production and deliver cars by the end of next year. Made in, uh, Thailand and delivered, I think it’s to Dubai by the end of next year. I’m a little confused because like, first of all, there is a driving wheel. You press a button, I can send the video and the driving wheel like kind of disappears into the, into the dashboard. But I was like, okay, can when I, can I come visit you in San Jose and, and check it out on the, on the roads? And they’re like, well, you can check it out, but it has to be in our parking lot. And I’m like, so you’re basically, if I’m coming in as a visitor, I have to try it in your parking lot, but you’re almost going, or in the process of going to production, it seems like there’s, there’s a disconnect there. I mean, I’m sure, I would hope that they’re already testing on the roads, but if you’re confident enough in the technology, then. I would think it shouldn’t be a problem for us to get out there and get on gun on a road. I mean, I’ve been in 18 wheelers, , you know, on the roads of California. I was in Zoox. How many, you know, this feels like years ago now, on, on Roads in California. Why should I be in, in a parking lot? So this person may have misspoke and maybe we’ll be able to get to San Jose. So tensor for our tensor listeners, you know, we’ll be out in California soon. Let’s get on the road, , with, with the, you know, the handful of cars that you have in California operating right now.

Grayson Brulte: To the tensor audience, we’d love to experience your vehicle. Perhaps the parking lot could be because they haven’t received their California autonomous driving permit yet. That is a possibility as it relates to the vehicle being manufactured just for clarity as being manufactured in Vietnam. By Vin Fast, so you have the ability to scale production. It perhaps it’s just a regulatory environment, but we always appreciate you getting down the road and, and bringing new details to us.

Walter Piecyk: Yeah, and they’re very friendly. I think there’s a lot of. Willingness to try and promote their vehicle. For sure at, at, at tensor, formerly X Auto, I was asking about Professor X, which we love. I’m not sure he goes by Professor X anymore, but, , you know, they’re on the radar. We’ll, we’ll see, and we hope to spend more time to kind of figure out where exactly they are on the, on that, on that progress towards autonomy. What else do we have in autonomy this week? Grayson? 

Grayson Brulte: Autonomy. We had a pretty big headline that crossed Bloomberg, where Daimler Truck is looking to raise capital to help fund a Torc and the, there’s two interesting things in this Bloomberg article. One, this never really happens that I don’t see much. Daimler Truck went on the record and confirmed it’s true in the Bloomberg article. That’s interesting. And then Walt Piecyk, I need a seatbelt because I’m gonna fall out of my chair on this. I couldn’t believe it. Torc is burning 660 million US dollars a year. That’s right. 660 million and let’s, I wanna put this number into perspective with you. ’cause this is fascinating. This is all based on SEC filings. Since Kodiak’s founding eight years ago, they’ve only raised 243 million. That’s right. Only 243 million. They’re generating revenue and they’ve achieved driver out commercial operations. And then Aurora, the, the biggest company out there in autonomous trucking has spends 676 million. That was in 2024 according to the SEC filing. They’ve gone driver out. How the heck is Torc spending 660 million? I, I, I’m sorry. I can’t get over that. What are they doing with it? 

Walter Piecyk: I mean, I think you pointed out Aurora spends a lot of money, but there’s others that don’t like may mobility. Is is very capitally efficient. Nuro’s on the more capital spending side of things. You know, it’s probably this autonomy 2.0 and I think everyone’s spending should reduce over time ’cause of the benefits of ai. It’s also like, I don’t think it’s that big of a deal for them to go and raise external capital. I mean, didn’t Waymo raise some external capital as well? I mean, you see this at large companies, especially for, you know, a large comp or like a, like an auto company. That sees these big cash burn numbers, they wanna awfully that I think to, to someone else in terms of the cash burn. So I don’t really look more into the capital raise than that. It seems like kind of a normal thing for the company to Do Do you disagree? 

Grayson Brulte: It just seemed. Odd that the company went on the record in, in a Bloomberg article. The, and the, the Bank is Bank of America. It just seemed very odd because when Waymo announced their, their external fundraising with Silver Lake and t Rowe and other large institutions, there wasn’t a Bloomberg article. There wasn’t a Wall Street Journal financial times. So it was, hi Waymo’s raised external capital, and then put in your, you know, your corporate press release. This to me. I’m, I’m just gonna say it. It just didn’t really necessarily add up. I think there’s more to the picture here. I’m just speculating. I don’t know, but it seems to me there’s more to the picture based on the way these deals were historically done and presented to the market.

Walter Piecyk: I mean, there’s a huge difference between a subsidiary of Google, right, or Alphabet or whatever you want to call them. And Torc Robotics, which no one’s heard of. There’s plenty of institutional investors that have tons of money that know Google and know Waymo because you know of their presence in the market that will never have heard of Torc. So I think that is why you might have to leak or somehow, you know, get press to try and drive, um, some interest in, in investing in the company. So I think that’s, that’s the explanation of the difference there.

Grayson Brulte: I know I’m gonna harp on this. I still can’t get over the $660 million a year burn. Where Kodiak, they’re seven years old. They’re burning 34.7 million a year on average. Where’s this disconnect? 

Walter Piecyk: Well, sometimes you get what you pay for, no offense. But like, we’ll, we’ll have to say, I’m not gonna just, like, I’ll say I’ll reserve judgment on the need for lidar or, you know, and for those that are against camera, I’m gonna say, I’m gonna, I’m gonna re remove any judgment on the need for capital or. Whether you do need capital. I mean, ’cause obviously we’ve seen, for example, X function as a company after cutting a lot of their investments. But in other cases, companies that, that do invest in, in advancements, um, on ai, you know, have a lead. Now clearly there’s, there’s a specific issue there, which is like, compute cost money. I get it. Um, but just because someone spends more money, maybe their, their technology’s ultimately gonna win as a result. I don’t know.

Grayson Brulte: I’m gonna reserve judgment and I’ll say this. We will monitor the story as it develops and if they are successful in raising the outside capital, we’ll analyze it and we’ll discuss it. And not gonna happen next week, but when it does, we’ll analyze it next week. What do we need to look for in the autonomy markets? ’cause we’re back 

Walter Piecyk: Well, Grayson, um, as you know, I wear a, a broader TMT hat at Lightshed so for me, the big event is the Apple event where they’re gonna launch some new phones. We also have a, a ton of investor conferences, I think MobileEye and, and among others speak. But the, the one I’m looking at is Aurora. Chris Urmson, CEO of Aurora speaking. I mean, Chris, you should give an update on Miles trucks, on the road Lanes, any progress with Volvo. They’ve been sending, they’ve been doing a good, good job with their YouTube channel saying like, here it is in the dark. Here it is with rain, or whatever it is. But like, give us some more facts at this conference that you’re speaking at. So, yeah, I mean, I think that’s what we’re gonna have and, and obviously we have, maybe we’ll have a weekly event in terms of who, who won this week, way more and Tesla in our expansion battle. And maybe you should generate some merch that has a color. We have such avid and smart supporters that really believe in Waymo, that our listeners and those that are also very smart, that really believe in Tesla and the Waymo and the Tesla supporters each think the other side is idiots. So maybe we make up some type of winner of the week with a different color shirt that you can sell and then you will wear whatever color is the winner, the winner of the week in the expansion at that point.

Grayson Brulte: I love that idea. Let’s get to work. Let’s get designing this and, and keep the inter interaction going. And when we do sell the merch, send us photos and perhaps we’ll, we’ll feature you on, on the show at some point. And, and you and I know next week there’s one thing that’s gonna happen. ’cause there’s a pattern. Most likely we’re gonna get the Thursday news dump where Tesla’s gonna announce something. Waymo’s gonna announce something, and then we’re gonna analyze it on autonomy markets. Be sure to tune in every Saturday at 10:00 AM Eastern. The future is bright. The future autonomous. The future is Tesla and Waymo. Now the question is, who wins next week, Walt, until next week.

Key Autonomy Markets Episode Questions Answered