Tesla’s Robotaxi Launch, Waymo and Uber’s Future Together, AV Policy Gains Momentum

Executive Summary

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson and Walt dissect the confirmation of Tesla’s June 12th robotaxi launch in Austin, beginning with just ten vehicles, and the significant market reactions, particularly in Uber’s stock. They explore the future catalysts for Tesla, including the scaling of its Austin fleet and potential expansion to other cities like Dallas. 

The discussion also covers the mounting pressure on Waymo to announce a concrete production schedule with an OEM like Toyota to counter Tesla’s momentum and dives deep into the strategic debate over whether Waymo will ultimately partner with Uber or build its own standalone network. Finally, they analyze the newly introduced “Autonomous Vehicle Acceleration Act of 2025,” a Senate bill aiming to create a national framework to streamline AV regulation and maintain U.S. leadership in the sector.

Key Autonomy Markets Episode Questions Answered

Key Autonomy Markets Topics & Timestamps

[00:00] Tesla’s Austin Launch Date Confirmed to be June 12th 

Autonomy Markets confirms that Tesla’s robotaxi launch in Austin is set for June 12th, countering earlier speculation of a June 1st start. The initial deployment will be intentionally small and cautious, beginning with just 10 Model Y vehicles. It is also noted that these first vehicles will operate with a one-to-one safety driver.

[01:00] Market Reaction and Investor Skepticism Towards Tesla and Uber 

The hosts analyze the market’s response to Tesla’s launch news, pointing out the significant rally in Uber’s stock as a remarkable reaction. Despite market movements, they contend that there is still considerable skepticism among institutional investors regarding Tesla’s future. The market is described as “headline driven,” with Uber’s stock often selling off in reaction to Tesla-related news.

[04:00] Countering Misinformation About Tesla’s Communication with Austin Officials 

This segment addresses inaccurate media reports, specifically from Fortune, that claimed Tesla had no communication with Austin officials. The host confirms directly with Tesla that the company has maintained “complete, open, transparent conversations with the city of Austin”. It is also clarified that autonomous vehicles in Texas are regulated at the state level, not the city level, due to preemption laws.

[05:54] Tesla’s Expansion Plans Beyond the Initial 10-Car Launch 

The discussion outlines the expectation that Tesla will quickly scale beyond its initial 10-20 car fleet in Austin. One host predicts that by the end of the year, Tesla’s operational footprint in the city will meet or exceed Waymo’s current presence. This expansion is expected to occur gradually, with the service area (ODD) growing every two to three weeks based on performance and demand. The possibility of launching in another Texas city, such as Dallas, by the end of the year is also considered.

[11:45] Waymo’s Next Moves and Potential Toyota Partnership Amidst Market Pressure 

Grayson and Walt assert that Waymo is feeling pressure and is in a “reactive” position due to the attention on Tesla. They argue that the most impactful announcement Waymo could make would be a “full-blown production schedule with Toyota,” providing concrete details about manufacturing plants and branding. One host predicts that Waymo will formalize its partnership with Toyota in some tangible way during the month of June.

[17:45] The Great Debate: Will Waymo Go It Alone or Partner with Uber? 

Autonomy Markets explores the strategic question of a Waymo-Uber partnership. While institutional investors increasingly believe the two companies are “locked and in bed,” one host strongly disagrees. The counterargument is that Waymo does not need Uber, can generate its own demand, and should protect its premium, consistent user experience by operating its own standalone network. The hosts conclude that Waymo’s final strategy has not yet been decided.

[27:15] Tesla’s Potential Demand Trigger: Bundling Robotaxi Access with Vehicle Purchases 

A potential future catalyst is proposed: Tesla could begin bundling unlimited, complimentary robotaxi access with the purchase or lease of a vehicle. This move is identified as a massive “demand trigger” that could disrupt the market by leveraging the enormous customer base of the Model Y, the world’s best-selling vehicle, and challenge the demand narrative of competitors like Uber and Waymo.

[29:00] Inside the Autonomous Vehicle Acceleration Act of 2025 

This segment covers the “Autonomous Vehicle Acceleration Act of 2025,” a bill introduced by Senator Lummis to create a national regulatory framework for AVs. The bill aims to streamline regulations and empower the Secretary of Transportation to help scale autonomous vehicles and trucks nationwide. A key goal is to prevent restrictive state-level bills from hindering progress and to maintain U.S. leadership in AV technology to foster economic growth.

[32:20] Unforced Error of the Week: California’s Ban on Autonomous Tractors on Private Land 

The episode’s “unforced error of the week” is a Cal/OSHA regulation in California that makes it illegal to operate an autonomous tractor, even on private property. This creates a logical contradiction where robotaxis can operate on public roads for a fee, but autonomous farm equipment is banned on private land. The regulator’s refusal to comment on the rule is also highlighted

Full Episode Transcript

Grayson Brulte: Walt. Last week we previewed Tessa’s upcoming launch in Austin. I gotta say you called it, right? ’cause days later, Bloomberg confirmed what you were talking about. It was not June 1st. It’s gonna be June 12th. But here at Autonomy Markets, we’re always focused on the future. What do you think is coming next with Tesla? With the launch Pending? 

Walter Piecyk: The remarkable thing in, in my view, was just the reaction in Uber stock. I mean, we, I talked about this a little bit last week and in prior weeks, kind of the pessimism within the institutional investor base. On the June delivery dates and, and how it wasn’t really reflected in this document. Look at how much Uber stock, has rallied, and part of it’s perhaps even misperceptions about Waymo, which we’ll get into later. So now the question is, has it completely flipped? I don’t think, I don’t think it really has. I think there’s still skepticism in terms of people think Tesla goes from here in the market. 

Grayson Brulte: The one thing that’s clear, Walt, this is a headline driven market with very little substance outside of autonomy markets for really what’s going on. And autonomy. 

Walter Piecyk: I think we have to dissect what we, what you and I see on YouTube and in and in Twitter versus the institutional dollars are, are truly invested. You know, on names like Uber, which are not necessarily as dominated, by individual investors, investments like they are in in Tesla. So you see like these countdown clocks to January 1st, which continue. And I think that puts kind of a false perception that like all hell is gonna get unleashed. On June 1st. and all hell is gonna get unleashed in the market on June 1st. That’s not the case. And that’s, that’s kind of extremism. Uh, in some ways the the other ways, and it’s not gonna go, is not gonna offer immediate nationwide. Everyone with a. for model Y is all of a sudden gonna have autonomous available to ’em. So, but that’s fine. That I don’t think is really, you know, the types of perceptions that are in some of these related stocks like Uber, like Lyft, among others. 

Grayson Brulte: Tesla’s been very clear. Mr. Musk has even posted on X. It will be 10, repeat 10. Model Ys. On day one, not millions of model Y’s, 10, and put it in a very controlled, safe manner. But yet, you’re right. The countdown clocks spark hysteria on one side of the market. And then on the institutional side, anytime you get a Tesla headline, Uber seemingly sells off. But then Lyft, it just seems like it’s floating out there without a captain. 

Walter Piecyk: Let’s first talk about, you know, provide more details and perhaps some of this is reiteration. Of what to expect in in June. And then let’s talk about the catalyst for the future. First in June 10, limited, ODD, right? So what is next in terms of the catalyst? You’re gonna have one of two things. You’re gonna have a hater saying like, oh, this is only driving on these two or three streets. Does that have a positive impact on Uber stock? And a negative on uh, or a negative on Tesla? Maybe, but, but I think the bigger potential impact is. One of these selected riders posting a picture of the driver out, or you know, if we or others have the opportunity to travel to Austin and post, you know, similar pictures. And I think that on balance, that’s gonna have a much larger impact on the near term. Let’s also be clear, there was, there was some, you know, some lot of, you know, noise on Twitter. Again talking about the one-to-one safety driver For our listeners, you knew that last week. We specifically called that out last week and, and I related it to where Waymo is today and maybe some per misperceptions about how the Waymo Safety Driver, um, operates today. So recent, I think it’s, it’s all, it’s important, um, to discuss your, continue to, to add color and maybe for us to continue to reiterate what, what to expect in the coming weeks. Is there, is there other questions that you think are. Misperceptions that are out there for June, and before we get into maybe what happens July, August and September. 

Grayson Brulte: The market is full of misinformation and factually incorrect information. There’s certain outlets, and I’m gonna call one of ’em out by name here, fortune. They’ve been posting inaccurate stories about Tesla. One of the stories said that Tesla has had no communications with the city of Austin. I read the article I call Tesla. They tell me that’s not true. They’ve been in complete, open, transparent conversations with the city of Austin. Go back to Fortune. That’s what we heard. That’s what we reported. No, it’s wrong. There’s all this misconception and to the individuals that are concerned, oh, there might not be a lack of ation. There is communication with the city of Austin. Let’s say that for the record, there’s communication with the state of Texas, let’s say that for the record. And furthermore, for the Monday morning quarterbacks, if you understand regulatory and understand policy. The way autonomous vehicles, state of Texas is regulated. It’s regulated at the state level, not at the city level. There’s a little thing called preemption, but Tesla’s doing the right thing by having the communication. So I wanna state that there for the record. 

Walter Piecyk: So let’s go back then to what we think is next. ’cause that’s ultimately what’s most important. And then how we think it potentially affects the market perception. So you have it launch on day one, and everyone’s like, what next? Like, so, you know, for example, if someone on Twitter, I forget the guy’s name, he is an investor saying like, oh, how is this gonna impact if they only have 20 car of, of course, like. It’s not that Tesla is just gonna remain with 10 or 20 cars in Austin. So then the question is, when does that expand? When do you get to the next point? And for me, it’s a gray area where I think that, I’ll say by the end of the year that um, you will see a footprint in Austin, which approximate, if not exceeds where Waymo is in the market today. be much more helpful to our listeners. We could be more precise about that, Grayson. I think the, the challenge here is that Tesla, as I’ve talked about before, has a, has a more of a safety culture than I think people give it credit for. keeping that in mind, know, how quickly do they expand the initial service area, or as you like to say, and the industry likes to say. D, did I get the letters right? 

Grayson Brulte: You did get the letters right? You did. You very did very well. The ODD expansion will come on technical performance, and, and it will come on consumer demand. I will be very conservative and say month over month per perhaps every two to three weeks, you’ll see a gradual expansion of the ODD until they reach a very similar ODD as it relates to Waymo’s, that ODD could expand further than Waymo’s because giga is right down the road. And Mr. Musk on X this week, he talked about self delivery. Of the Model Ys, how great would that be? They come off the factory line and go right into service. Now all of a sudden you can, for all practical purposes, expand an infinite ODD. That’s a huge advantage. Which raises the question. I know this is a very hypothetical, the number one thing that a politician wants in their state or their county jobs. What type of jobs they want, manufacturing jobs. When Tesla successfully scales this model y self delivery, could we see? Micro factories, perhaps a smaller form factor pop up in counties, and that just starts feeding it as an assembly line, and then the, the fleets start expanding dramatically quicker. 

Walter Piecyk: that’s not a part of my expertise. I have no idea. It doesn’t seem like that’s possible that you would just have micro manufacturing facilities. It seems to go against the whole concept of how you generate, um, scale for cars. So I. doubt that’s happening. I’m less, you know, it’s great that they’re gonna have self delivery. Great, but that’s not what excites me about the market. What excites me about the market is them expanding their footprint in Austin and then going to additional markets. I mean, one other part of this is I think there’s some expectations that obviously Teslas can, can operate on highways on day one. you think this very initial ODD will include a highway. You know, even if it’s going from one exit to another, just for them to say like, Hey, we’re doing highways in Austin before Tesla is doing highways in in California. Any chance of that? And if not, you know, again, getting back to the earlier question, soon before the ODD gets large enough within Austin, where it would include highways, and that becomes, again, a bragging point relative to where Waymo is in the market. 

Grayson Brulte: The way Austin’s designed from a municipal planning. Standpoint, you do not need highways. You can go from the airport to giga, to downtown to Terry Blacks, all without having to go on a highway. So it’ll be a while once Tesla expands to the suburbs Yes indicator that I’ll look for when they start testing driver route model wise and sh one 30 state highway one 30, which, butts up to giga. When we start seeing that, then, you know, they’re getting close. But on, on day one, no. 

Walter Piecyk: So then I guess the question is beyond when, again, I’m trying to think of all of the data points, all of the catalysts that will impact my world on the investment side. Beyond just expanding Austin, which again, I think will be at way more greater by the end of the year. Um, or at least that’s the goal of the company, assuming that safety enables them to do that. When do they launch in, in California or additional markets that would include highways. 

Grayson Brulte: California I do not see coming in 2025 based on the regulatory environment. If you look, if you want a highway environment, Dallas, it’s a, it’s a highway environment. Austin to Dallas, not very far. I, I could see another Texas city coming online, and I’ll say online that there’s, say 10 to 20 vehicles by the end of the year. And I could see highways being enabled in Dallas since that is a freeway city. 

Walter Piecyk: So they’ve already talked about California cities being their next market, so we’re gonna put that aside because of the regulatory hurdles there. Some of them perhaps politically motivated given know who the owner is of the company. So I guess the question is can they pivot that quickly to be able to, to get into an another market? And is it more likely that all we really see in terms of 2025 progress for Tesla is just the expansion of Austin? And frankly, that’s probably enough. Um, assuming again, they can hit this broader market driver out hundreds of cars, if not up to a thousand cars. That might be enough, to kind of continue the concern that people has with have with Tesla. But assuming the regulatory issue in California and just timeline issues, you effectively Grayson that you don’t think there will be additional markets launched for Tesla in 2025, or you do think they can do 2020 cars in Dallas? 

Grayson Brulte: I do think they could do, do 20 cars. As an investor and investor standpoint, if Tesla has a hundred plus vehicles running in Austin and ODD similar to Waymo full driver-out, that’s a success. And to me, that indicates to the market that Tesla clearly can scale this technology. 

Walter Piecyk: One other question for you. How do you think they’re gonna find these people are initially approved? they first launched their very limited ODD in, you know, in Austin. 

Grayson Brulte: You’re gonna get a phone call that’s gonna play a song says, why can’t we be friends? Why can’t we be friends? And then you’ll know you got invited. So perhaps that’s how they’re gonna do it. 

Walter Piecyk: I mean, what’s interesting is if the OD is relatively small, it’s gonna have to be someone that only cares about that limited area. So I guess technically you could probably go door to door. Old school, you know, I don’t know, it might not be safe to go to door to door in, in Texas. not, you don’t wanna knock on someone’s door, to find out who the, you know, who the rider’s gonna be. So, look, I can move, I can establish residency in Austin for a couple of weeks, maybe I can get on that list. But assured to our listeners, autonomy markets will be doing our best to get in one of those cars in the month of June. Let’s move on to Waymo. Uh, what can, I mean, Waymo was a little quiet this week. I think they talked about road trip cities. I mean, these seems like the easy announcements you throw, send a couple of cars to a new city, like, Hey, road Trip City. what, what can Waymo announce deflect? And, and I say that in the ’cause I know, I’m sure there’s gonna be like people that go, oh, they’re the leader. What do they have to announce? Like, let’s remind everyone. They announced something with Toyota, which no one really knows what it is like that they’re actually talking. So I think that actions speak louder than people’s beliefs, I guess. Um, I think Waymo does, I think, um, is reactive and I think there is certainly pressure on them. What could they as in the month of June to deflect with the, with the new flow that I think is gonna be coming out of Tesla. 

Grayson Brulte: Waymo is feeling pressure. Point blank. Waymo is feeling pressure. The one thing that Waymo could announce in my opinion. A production schedule with Toyota, not an MOU, not a hi. We’re having a conversation, a full-blown production schedule. Announce where the plant’s gonna be. Are you gonna build it in southeastern Ohio where you’re building the main mobility? Sienna? Vans, are you gonna use the Toyota brand? Are you gonna use the Lexus brand? Give details and give a production schedule. Announce the factory. Hyundai did that when they made the announcement with Waymo. We know they’re gonna be made in Savannah, Georgia, so it’s a win for the Trump administration. Announce perhaps you’re gonna make it in southeast Ohio, a win for the Trump administration. Waymo has to put a political win on the board because the the zeer in Albatross hanging around their neck. 

Walter Piecyk: I mean, there’s a lot to unpack there. First on Hyundai, I think they just announced that they could do implement price increases because of the tariff. I. don’t think the president likes to see when companies talk about price increases relative to his policies. Um, so I don’t know if Waymo is gonna be far enough along with another OEM to have some type of production schedule, but with Hyundai they could be more visible, uh, in talking about that relationship. Or maybe, you know, if, if they had initial dialogue with Toyota that they talked about a couple of weeks ago, maybe there’s another press release, Hey, we’re at letter of intent, or, or some type of, you know, one initial thing that that gets analysis. So I’m gonna predict. That I’m gonna predict that in the month of June, Waymo will formalize something with Toyota. I’m hoping that its productions for the Waymo One fleet. It could also be, you know, something more tangible in the co-development of, you know, a privately owned Waymo Toyota. 

Grayson Brulte: Letter of intent. Eh, I could put it in my pipe and smoke it. It’s, it’s, it’s not gonna move it. We really need. Need real clarity on what they’re doing. And we also need to know, is this going to be for the US market or the Japanese market? ’cause photos are popping up on X and photos are popping up on Reddit, that the testing that Waymo’s doing in Japan is dramatically increasing. 

Walter Piecyk: Yeah, that’s true. I mean, so if you go and talk about stuffing stuff outside of the country. Three. And then again, let’s re revert this back to one of your favorite, you know, unforced errors. Zeekr things are certainly heating up on the China front in the United States. I think there was some comments yesterday, that were kind of very vocal hitting the markets off today, again, on, on tariff concerns. does zeer get pulled into the mix? Um, and there’s, you know, ’cause the administration can be pretty surgical. announcements about individual, I don’t know, universities, countries, whatever it is. So could, could, um, Waymo being on the receiving end of that being like, Hey, there ain’t no Zika should be, uh, coming into this country. Especially ones that are autonomous. Even though we both know that Zeer is just the vehicle and the technology is Waymo. doesn’t change the ability for the administration to spin that as this Chinese vehicle that doesn’t have a driver in it. Um, do you want that on the streets? And that’s a political win as, as well as a trade war type win. 

Grayson Brulte: There’s still Chinese components in it. If you, you, I can, I could sit here and make a very. Brilliant political argument with you. Comparing it to Hui. I know it’s net networking infrastructure. 

Walter Piecyk: Huawei. Huawei. 

Grayson Brulte: Fine. Huawei, I can sit here and make an argument for you. Networking infrastructure versus vehicle, but still it goes against everything that America’s trying to do with autonomy. You read public statements by Secretary Duffy. You see public statements by him. You see speeches by him where they want America to maintain global leadership in autonomous vehicles. And what Waymo did with the Zeer, they sold us out point blank. 

Walter Piecyk: This has been the case for six months or longer. This, as long as we’ve been doing this not that you’re wrong, but it hasn’t manifested itself. And in fact, at Google IO they were handing out pins that include Zeekr shaped light blue pins. So it hasn’t really happened yet. So the question is, does it happen in June or July? Maybe that, what are the odds you put on that the chickens come home to roost? For Zeekr within the next 90 days. Odds on that. 

Grayson Brulte: 90 days, no. End of the year. Yes, because we are having movement in DC on an autonomous vehicle bill. That’s the game changer there. 

Walter Piecyk: we get to the national framework, bill. ’cause I think that’s obviously very important. Just one other thing, ’cause again, I think what made last week’s podcast so great was talking about the market implications and then seeing Uber’s reaction after Tesla. So now let’s look at Waymo and Uber. my view is from an institutional investor standpoint, there’s now like this belief that Waymo and Uber are somehow like locked and in bed. that, um, you know, going forward that the, the, the concept of a Waymo one only network like Tesla has claimed that they want to be. Is a lower probability, not like 10%, but I would say that the market’s probably like believing there’s a 35% chance it’s Waymo one only as things progress, regardless of what Tesla does, and look, maybe as Tesla succeeds, it scares Waymo and they run into Uber’s hands and they’re the partners that together are gonna fight against Tesla. Where are you on the view of Waymo One versus Partnered with Uber going forward. 

Grayson Brulte: I don’t buy the Uber demand narrative that Dara spinning in the market. Waymo one, in my opinion, and we have data can generate enough demand. Without Uber, they don’t need Uber. I was thinking about, oh, do I take a flight up to Atlanta just to see? And I was like, well, what if I don’t get the Waymo? That was a complete waste of time, ancy. So I canceled my trip. I didn’t book it. ’cause the hesitancy there. I want a consistent Waymo experience every time. I, I don’t want the Forest Gump line life like a box of chocolate. You never know what you’re gonna get because you get bombed out, smoked out vehicles, and you get a clean waymo. I want the consistent experience every time. And I know we harp on this, I know the team at Uber listens. I know we’ve gotten feedback on this. There’s no consistent experience with X. There’s no at autonomous vehicle tier, there’s no Waymo tier point blank. I’ll say this for the record. Waymo does not need Uber. 

Walter Piecyk: I mean, that may be true. I think the answer is a bit more nuanced and from my standpoint, I’ll give you an example. Uh, I, I finally, I, I used to be like a loyal Uber customer. Brandon, my partner at Lightshed was always hassling me about the cost relative to, to Lyft. So the other day, like, you know, I saw it was a ride, you know, from the city back up into the suburbs. I checked Uber, it was like 200 something dollars. I’m like, that’s kind of wild. Let’s check Lyft dramatically lower. Lyft is consistently lower and Uber’s ability to charge those higher prices are in part, based on. Laziness, inertia, as Brandon would say, in the fact that I just open up that Uber app. I think now I’m gonna flip to your side. That changes when, when there’s a change in the product. Right now it’s like, okay, I’m in there anyway. It’s the same driver. How much hassle do I wanna go over? I’m not sure why Lyft isn’t creating more share for me, cheaper, but whatever. You know, if it’s, if we’re now switching to autonomy, it opens up the opportunity for someone to shift their usage. I’ll also say, going back to podcasts that I listened to this week. Again, misinformation. I don’t wanna say it’s misinformation, but I think, let’s say I have a differing viewpoint on where the market is, even though there’s certain people that should know this market better than anybody. When you say Uber delivers three to five minute wait times, where is that exactly? I mean, I’m gonna start literally tweeting. I hit send and it claims that the car’s gonna be there in three minutes and then I’ll time when it actually gets there, and I, I just don’t believe that. someone can achieve nine minute wait time for an autonomous vehicle in the, in the near term, that’s like some dramatic difference in terms of the product that you’re gonna use. ’cause if I’m in a rush, sure. Uber’s promising me three minutes. Does it actually get there in three minutes? Do your, does your Ubers in Florida get there in three minutes when they say it’s gonna get there in three minutes? Ever? Like ever. 

Grayson Brulte: No, and I want no. Zero, zilch and I wanna highlight this horrible, my average wait time ready for this 15 minutes. I have to plan in advance. 

Walter Piecyk: Hold on. As stated by the app or, or on your actual, I, I want to compare what the app tells you versus what actually happens. 

Grayson Brulte: app says 15, it’s storm 20 to 22. It’s horrible. 

Walter Piecyk: look, I that’s fine. If the app says 15, I’m saying that like if the app’s saying five. It’s gonna get there in 50. Now look, I get it. It’s traffic. Like if I’m at the airport, like stuff happens, like my, my only, and my, my point is not to denigrate that they can’t get there to me in five minutes. My point is that the consumer doesn’t believe the three to five minutes. So, so if you say nine minutes and you’re, and you’re waiting for what you expect to be a cleaner, more reliable, more consistent experience of a. Of that car that doesn’t, that I don’t think it is gonna be a, a deal stopper, as has been suggested by those that are really pushing the ride share industry as this indefensible demand mechanism. So I, you know, look, I a hundred percent recognize the demand that they deliver. That’s just more relevant, I believe, to a fragmented market that might include a neuro powered car, a wave powered car. I don’t believe that’s the case for Waymo. With that said, my view on this? think Waymo has made their mind up. And that’s the bottom line. So those that are insisting that Waymo is gonna be with Uber, think are full of shit. And those that are insisting that Waymo’s gonna do it alone also full of shit. So let’s go back to then, you know, what do we think the, what is the voiced initial intentions? Of the, of the company. And there was literally a podcast. Another one, Grayson, I was fucking listening to podcasts all over the place. This was someone was, was interviewing Chris Urmson, who is the CEO of Aurora, and as many people know, was a early, um, executive at Waymo who left I believe in 2016 asked about that and, and sen. Who, by the way, for those that don’t know Aurora, their largest shareholder is Uber. Okay. They, they received assets from Uber. They Dara, uh, we used to be on the board, whatever. They have a tight relationship. Sen in this interview was like, oh yeah, I remember when I was, you know, with, with Dmitri, who’s now the co CEO of the company in the early days, and we were talking about, isn’t it gonna be great that we’ll never have to take an Uber again, and then literally detailed the stuff that we’ve talked about. this podcast about cleanliness, reliability, all of those factors of why you would prefer an autonomous vehicle. He didn’t say, we dreamed about our Waymo’s or whatever they called the company at the time, would plug into the Uber network. He said, I, I think I wrote this down somewhere basically. Wouldn’t it be great if I never had to take an Uber again? So that’s the initial intention of a company. And it’s what’s wild is you know him actually saying this, you know, in an interview about what was his largest shareholder. Now granted he was referring back to what happened in 2016, but those are the signs that I think we look for. to go on a diatribe. I know it’s better to have interaction in our podcast, but let me just relate this now to today. ’cause you know, the inbounds are gonna be like, well, things have changed, this, that, and the other thing. A hundred percent agree. And here’s what I would say on a pushback on that. When this thing goes public, when Waymo goes public, is Dmitri to Kendra gonna be the CEOs of this company? Are they the ones that can show investors a path to profitability? Or are they just managing a great science project to get the technology to work? And then will those new executives that take it public, and even if it’s them. What’s the decision that they’re gonna make in terms of communicating to the market a profitable strategy? Is it with Uber? Is it without, is it, you know, putting electronics on a Jaguar or is it more of an OEM strategy? Sorry for the long diatribe, but what, what are your, what are your views on how that plays out? 

Grayson Brulte: It’s without Uber for a very simple reason. If you, if Waymo, if Alphabet does spin out, Waymo does go public and you’re overly relying on Uber, that’s an Achilles heel. So why am I gonna invest in you when I could invest in Uber and have less risk? So it has to be a pure play. 

Walter Piecyk: the argument would be on the opposite of that, Grayson. It’s a risk deflector. I don’t have to worry about going out there and getting exactly. Grayson, I don’t know if people saw this, was waving his hand. I. agree with you because at that point, two years from now, you’ve established, you know, Waymo will have expanded. They will finally have gotten Hyundai ramped up and you’ve established that you can, that you can create your own demand. The only issue’s gonna be is like, can they have enough supply? But even the supply, you know, they would, they would argue is, is something that can be fulfilled with, with private ownership. And I think all of these deals are not long-term deals. We don’t know, I don’t know this for a fact. From what I’ve read and the body language that I’ve seen, I don’t think any of these these market by market, Waymo, Uber deals are more than a year or two. Could be wrong. 

Grayson Brulte: we’ve had clues that have been dropped. We’ve had hints that have been dropped. We do believe that they’re short term. We do have no factual, nothing to point to point the audience to, but the thing that nobody’s talking about that we’re gonna start talking about now, what is the, you, you asked, what’s the next shoe to drop? You wanna know what it is? Tesla starts bundling unlimited complimentary robotaxis access with your purchase or your lease of a Tesla. That’s a demand trigger that, wow, if I’m Waymo, whoa, oh, oh, and then Uber. The, the whole demand narrative goes away because the model Y is the best selling vehicle in the world. 

Walter Piecyk: I mean, I think what the result of that is gonna be. Panics an aggressive word. It’s, it’s, it’s it I, I use it sometimes just to kind of evoke extreme. It’s not actual panic, but it’s gonna accelerate the viewpoints of the OEMs and Waymo to partner together. You know, whether it’s getting deals ready for long-term private ownership, but also just sourcing Waymo with more and more cars. And I think that’s, that is. The initial response, um, that you’re gonna get, Waymo can do that on their own based on their balance sheet. Other technology companies are gonna need Uber relationship for sure. 

Grayson Brulte: Other technology companies? Yes, a hundred percent knew that Waymo doesn’t, because we talked about last week, Waymo could put the person on vehicles, on the Waymo one network, and that’s why Uber, you’re starting to see them get very vocal about the fragmentation strategy. Andrew McDonald, who runs autonomy for Uber, did an interview with the BBC talking about fragmentation, but then the, then the UK government has delayed. Delayed full driver-our deployments fully autonomous of 2027. So Uber’s looking at other markets, they’re ready to enter that market now. Uber needs the Nuro’s, the Wayve’s of the world to survive in autonomy. ’cause without them, I don’t really see a credible path forward if Waymo does walk away. 

Walter Piecyk: Yeah. I, I don’t, I don’t disagree. Maybe this is a good time to, to, segue into the Lummis bill. 

Grayson Brulte: Senator Lummis, thank you for your belief. In autonomy. Thank you for your support of the US economy. The bill ma’am that you introduced. The Autonomous Vehicle Acceleration Act of 2025 will streamline regulations. You’ll give Secretary Duffy, who is doing a phenomenal job, secretary of Transportation, the tools he needs to ensure that autonomous vehicles and autonomous trucks swing over 10,001 pounds can scale in America. It’s a big day, Walt. The framework is moving forward. 

Walter Piecyk: I applaud that and I appreciate that. My pushback or in, in, in my world of telecom, is a lot of times when I see bills that are not bipartisan, I just wonder if they’re, you know, kind of a, a position piece, but not something that necessarily, uh, proceeds, um, you know, through committee. So what are your, what are the odds that the committee kind of pushes this to vote? 

Grayson Brulte: I see it going through to a vote because we had the Republican majority, Senator Loomis has been out there as an, as an outspoken advocate of Bitcoin in the crypto industry. So she has a lot of goodwill there for embracing new and emerging technologies that will benefit the United States. And I wanna highlight specific language that Senator Loomis put in the bill. Maintaining global leadership and autonomous vehicle technology will enhance the competitiveness of the United States, foster economic growth and spur innovation across the domestic manufacturing sector. And quote, that ties in exactly what I talked about with Tesla and the micro factories. The economic growth is the main reason why I founded the Council for Economic Resilience. And while we had some big news in that this week, the board appointed Jim Mullen. X-F-M-C-S-A administrator and general counsel as our executive director. So we’re, we’re moving forward and we’re advocating for the autonomy economy. And this bill from Senator Loomis is a home run, really great for the American economy. 

Walter Piecyk: I mean, obviously we agree or I agree. Um, you know, and a national framework is gonna be super helpful. I think it’s good for obviously the economy relative to the issues that we’re having with China, I just get concerned you know, politics play over logic especially if this is in any way associated with, Elon, it clearly isn’t. Right. It clear, you know, ’cause there’s so many companies in the US that are gonna benefit and the economy that’s gonna benefit. Um. Including the auto industry, a big, big employer, right. In terms of a national framework. So, you know, from my standpoint, obvious benefit, but like if Elon’s tied to it, do you have Democrats just voting against it based on the kind of anti Elon rhetoric that exists out there? And, and similarly, do you anticipate any kind of pushback from labor, this? 

Grayson Brulte: There’ll always be pushback. There’ll, there’ll always be shatter, but Mr. Musk is not associated with this bill. The American publics associated with this bill. This bill will create jobs at the end of the day and there will be pushback. And most importantly, what this bill gives, it gives Senator Duffy the ability to put a framework in place that stops job killing bills such as SB 3 95 and Nevada, which will effectively ban autonomous trucking By forcing a human behind the wheel, it would eliminate all the shenanigans that are happening on a state by state level and allow America to thrive. This is not for Mr. Musk. This is not for gm. This is not for Ford. This is for the American public, and that’s why it’s important. 

Walter Piecyk: Well, we wish them luck and we will be watching carefully and, and reporting back on its progress through committee and hopefully, um, to the other side. 

Grayson Brulte: We will, I’ll be spending a lot of time in DC so look for more news there. ’cause autonomy markets, as we always do, we hit the road and, and while I gotta tell you and and hitting the road, I hit the road outta California years ago because it’s an interesting state to say the least. There’s a lot of chatter that’s been brewing in California around the cal OSHA regulations today. You legally cannot operate an autonomous tractor. Let’s call you have Walt’s farm. Okay? We go see Uncle Walt. We put on our getup and we go. Go see it. You can’t deploy an autonomous tractor on your private land, but yet you can operate a Roboto taxii on public roads and charge Faires. There’s a big disconnect there. It’s the unforced error of the week. A NBC News Bay Area highlighted it, and the Cal Ocean regulator won’t even go on the record with NBC Unforced Error of the Week. What do you think’s going on here? Well, there’s a big disconnect. 

Walter Piecyk: Well, I think, I think this is great because when you highlight kind of crazy views like this and existing bands. It just kind of puts in perspective all the other ones as well. So where like maybe they have, they had a rational approach to tractors then, you know, when they’re preventing Tesla from launching in California. You know, it might be easier for them to do it, but when everything across the board it’s just like so anti-technology and ridiculous, I think it ultimately helps, um, you know, it clear the tracks for all of them. So. Including getting perhaps some of the national populate pressure on a national framework, which is what we were just addressing. So by all means, California keep, keep being wacky and keep doing these wacky things. ’cause you know, it potentially just gets votes against you on a national level for upcoming laws, uh, like what Senator Lummus is attempting to get done. 

Grayson Brulte: it’s just one of those things you never know they’re gonna do what they do, but that’s why there’s a thing called preemption, and that’s why the bills that are coming under Congress are good for the US economy. Walt, we went all over the map this week. We did a lot on policy, a lot on the Waymo Uber debate. What do we need to look for in the economy markets over the next week? 

Walter Piecyk: I mean, there’s always conferences that exist. Um, so I think at least Lyft is speaking. I know at one, I. I don’t know if Uber is, um, but they can obviously are obviously gonna be asked about this June launch. In Lyft’s case, I think there’s gonna be increasing questions about, you know, where they are with, with Waymo. Um, and, and you know, whether Waymo goes it alone or goes with Uber, like where is Lyft, you know, in that, in that equation. So, you know, these investor conferences are typically just plum, but you know, at least there’s news for some of these executives to have to react to. From the prior week. 

Grayson Brulte: T minus two weeks till Tesla officially enters the robo sector. Every week we will be here. I’ll be hearing my bright, colorful shirts. Thanks for the feedback. Walt will be here with fancy new haircuts, and we’ll be breaking down the autonomy markets for you each and every week. Thanks so much for your feedback, Walt and I really enjoy it. We get a kick out of it. The Future is bright. The Future autonomous. The Future is a national autonomous vehicle framework. Walt, until next week.