Toyota Gives Waymo Scale and a Path to Your Driveway

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Waymo’s expanded partnership with Toyota, bringing factory-line integration to an autonomous bZ4X fleet in Japan by 2027.

With the Toyota and Hyundai manufacturing partnerships, Grayson says Waymo now has the manufacturing capacity and capital to dominate the robotaxi market globally, while Walt views the Toyota partnership as a volume ramp heading into 2030 that poses a serious threat to traditional rideshare.

Beyond robotaxis, Grayson and Walt analyze the partnership’s potential to introduce personally owned autonomous vehicles, which could accelerate the consumer trend toward one-car households. They also question Alphabet’s decision to omit the landmark Toyota announcement from its earnings report, even as Waymo added 250 square miles of territory across five cities in a single week.

In Orlando, Grayson spent five hours riding in Waymo’s around its 120-square-mile territory, observing hundreds of Ojais at a massive depot near the airport. However, access restrictions at Orlando International Airport (MCO) and the Brightline station continue to choke off high-value transit corridors, underscored by a chaotic pickup attempt at a nearby Amazon facility.

In Houston, Tesla expanded Robotaxi’s service area to 254-square-miles in the shape of a rocket ship. Over in autonomous trucking Aurora delayed its 200-truck milestone to February due to supply chain issues and reduced guidance, contrasting with Kodiak’s binding 75-truck order and leaner cash burn.

On the Foreign Autonomy Desk, XPENG received an SAE Level 4 demonstration permit in Guangzhou, Baidu Apollo Go received a SAE Level 4 special operating permit from Switzerland’s Federal Roads Office and Tesla’s FSD Supervised was granted approval in Latvia.

Episode Chapters

• 0:00 Waymo and Toyota Partnership
• 06:36 Personally Owned Waymo Toyota Vehicles
• 09:18 Waymo’s Volume Ramp to 2030 and the Impact on Rideshare
• 11:53 Waymo Expands Service Coverage by 250 Square Miles
• 13:15 Alphabet Earnings
• 16:08 Waymo’s California Advantage
• 18:20 Orlando Field Report
• 33:17 Tesla Robotaxi Houston Expansion
• 35:47 Tesla Extends Robotaxi Service Hours
• 37:47 Aurora Delays Its Truck Milestone
• 41:28 Non Binding vs. Binding Autonomous Trucking Deals
• 46:13 Gatik Class 7 Truck Spotted in Plano
• 51:46 Rivian’s Autonomy Plans
• 55:07 Foreign Autonomy Desk
• 1:00:08 Next Week