Peak Car by 2035: The $1.2 Trillion Autonomous Vehicle Industry Takes Shape

Martyn Briggs, Director, Thematic Investing Strategy, Bank of America joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss why 2035 might be the year the car peaks and what that means for the market.

Breakthroughs in AI, falling sensor costs, and favorable regulation have shifted autonomy from a “moonshot” to a fast-emerging industry and soon, a global economy that we call the autonomy economy. During the conversation Grayson and Martyn explore Bank of America’s forecast of a $1.2 trillion total addressable market for autonomous vehicles by 2040, spanning not only passenger cars but also logistics, ports, mining, and agriculture.

They discuss how generative AI, simulation, and neural networks are accelerating deployment and why autonomy is becoming a critical solution to labor shortages worldwide. The conversation also highlights regional adoption trends, the geopolitics shaping the autonomous vehicle race, and the more than $200 billion already invested since 2010, signaling a clear shift into commercialization and long-term opportunities for both technology developers and investors.

Episode Chapters

• 0:00 The Road to Autonomy Introduction
• 0:23 Bank of America: The Future of Autonomous Vehicles Report
• 10:26 UK Public Opinion on Autonomous Vehicles
• 16:24 Autonomous Vehicle Market Constraints
• 18:03 Autonomous Vehicles and Tourism
• 20:20 Foxconn
• 22:42 Personally-Owned Autonomous Vehicles and the Growth of Licensing
• 28:05 The Growing Autonomy Markets
• 34:39 Autonomous Trucking
• 38:57 Robotaxi Costs
• 41:33 Peak Car and Increasing Autonomous Vehicle Investments
• 46:57 Institutional Investors
• 51:38 AI Data
• 54:56 Chinese Autonomous Vehicle Market
• 58:59 Autonomous Vehicles ChatGPT Moment