This Week in The Autonomy Economy™
If You Can Make It Here, You Can Make It Anywhere, Or At Least, that is How the Song Goes
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Insurance for robotics and autonomous vehicles
Insurance for robotics and autonomous vehicles
This Week in the Autonomy Economy, politics took center stage in New York, Baidu went driver-out in Abu Dhabi and Waymo is eyeing an Australian expansion.
When Waymo officially launches commercial operations in Australia, it will be the fourth country in which they have commercial operations after the U.S., Japan and the UK. 2026 is the year Waymo becomes a global business and it is also a year of consolidation.
As we move into the second half of the year, we expect consolidation to pick up at the same time global expansion accelerates. In particular, we are watching the UK, Europe, UAE and Southeast Asia markets for signs of global expansion.
As companies expand globally, pay close attention to the politics and what is happening on the world stage. The capture of Maduro in Venezuela has had a significant impact on certain companies’ global robotaxi expansion ambitions, and the ongoing instability in Iran could only accelerate that if the regime falls at some point.
Geopolitics is now a game of chess and that game will directly impact the trajectory of the autonomy economy and certain companies’ global expansion plans. We are watching it and we will continue to analyze it each and every week here in this newsletter and on Autonomy Markets.
📰 Need to Know: This Week in the Autonomy Economy
Why is New York City excluded from New York State’s new autonomous vehicle pilot program?
Governor Hochul announced an enhanced statewide pilot program for commercial autonomous vehicles, but explicitly carved out New York City. The text suggests this decision is driven by politics rather than safety or economics. New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and his recent appointee to the Taxi and Limousine Commission, Midori Valdivia, have signaled a strong intent to block autonomous vehicles to protect taxi drivers. Consequently, despite NYC representing nearly 60% of the state’s GDP, the city is currently effectively closed for business to autonomous vehicle companies including Waymo.
What are the details surrounding Waymo’s potential expansion into Australia?
Waymo is reportedly exploring an expansion into Sydney, Australia. Company representatives have met with federal transport minister Catherine King to discuss the move. If launched, Australia would become the fourth country with commercial Waymo operations, joining the U.S., Japan, and the UK. Additionally, Waymo has reportedly met with Chinese automakers to potentially secure vehicles for this Sydney deployment.
What milestone did Baidu reach in the Middle East this week?
Baidu launched a fully autonomous commercial robotaxi service, meaning “driver-out” with no safety driver behind the wheel on Yas Island in Abu Dhabi. Executed in partnership with AutoGo, the service covers a 9.7-square-mile area. This move underscores the UAE’s growing status as one of the most important global markets for robotaxi deployment.
How is geopolitics currently influencing the autonomy economy?
Geopolitics is described as a “game of chess” that is directly impacting the trajectory of the industry. Specific events, such as the capture of Maduro in Venezuela and ongoing instability in Iran, are affecting the global expansion plans of certain robotaxi companies. As companies expand across borders, political stability and international relations are becoming critical factors in their strategic planning.
What market trends are predicted for the second half of 2026?
The second half of the year is expected to be defined by two simultaneous trends: accelerating global expansion and increased industry consolidation. Key markets to watch for this expansion include the UK, Europe, the UAE, and Southeast Asia. 2026 is characterized as the year Waymo transitions into a global business, setting the tone for broader market movements.
What’s Moving the Markets
If You Can Make It Here, You Can Make It Anywhere, Or at least, that is How the Song Goes
Start spreadin’ the news… Or at least that is how the song goes. But in New York, Governor Hochul has other ideas. Apparently, she isn’t interested in channeling Ol’ Blue Eyes. Instead she is interested in playing politics, and she just put New York State at a massive economic disadvantage.
On January 13th, Governor Hochul announced an enhanced statewide pilot program for commercial autonomous vehicles. It came with one glaring exception: New York City. Why carve out the state’s economic engine? Politics. Pure and simple.
Let’s look at the math. Fifty-nine percent of New York State’s GDP comes from the five boroughs. Forty-three percent of the state’s total economic output is Manhattan alone. And 42.7% of the state’s population lives in the city. By excluding NYC, the Governor isn’t just starting small, she is legally barring the majority of her own economy from the future. In essence, Governor Hochul just told 8.5 million New Yorkers, we are saving the future for the suburbs.
Why deny entrepreneurs the chance to build a business in one of the world’s greatest cities? Why force NY-based mobility startups to move to Florida or Texas? And why deny New Yorkers the opportunity to experience the future, rather than just reading about it happening in Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Austin and Miami?
The timing of the Governor’s announcement is not a coincidence, and in fact it appears to be a coordinated campaign. This announcement came just twelve days after Zohran Mamdani was sworn in as Mayor, and on the exact same day he nominated Midori Valdivia, a staunch labor advocate to chair the Taxi and Limousine Commission (TLC).
Mayor Mamdani didn’t hide his intent. In his speech nominating Ms. Valdivia, the Mayor stated the following:
It is a vision of a New York City where those who drive our people are not passengers in their own life. And it is the vision where taxi drivers have the representation and the voice in government that they have too long been deprived of.
– New York Mayor Mamdani, January 13, 2026
Then, Bhairavi Desai, President of the New York Taxi Workers Alliance said the quiet part out loud:
Garages have become millionaires, app companies have become billionaires, and all are plodding with the trillionaires to replace drivers with autonomous vehicles.
– Bhairavi Desai, President of the New York Taxi Workers Alliance, January 13, 2026
Make no mistake about it. Ms. Valdivia was not appointed to regulate autonomous vehicles; she was appointed to stop them. The goal isn’t safety or economic growth, it’s politics. Pure and simple.
When you ban technology to protect a specific constituency, you don’t just lose that one industry, you lose the entire ecosystem and the local businesses that support that ecosystem.
Ban autonomous vehicles in New York City, then Waymo will pack up and leave town. A town they first entered in 2021 and returned in September 2025 in preparation of launching a commercial robotaxi service. If Waymo leaves, they will not just take jobs with them, they will take economic opportunity with them.
No longer will there be the support jobs, local businesses that support Waymo and feed their employees. Those jobs will go away and they won’t come back anytime soon. As founders will think are we next to be regulated out of town?
If founders believe this, they will never come to town and the founders who are the job creators will leave town taking their economic growth engines with them.
Governor Hochul and Mayor Mamdani have sent a clear message, New York City is closed for business. New York City does not want to be a part of the future. They are betting that they can pause the future to protect the past. But the future doesn’t wait. It moves.
While politicians in New York play politics, Florida is growing significantly faster than New York, as New Yorkers flee high-taxes and over regulation. In fact, New York is losing more people than those who are moving in. Last year alone, the net domestic migration in New York was 121,000 individuals, while Florida grew by over 467,000 new residents.
Ban autonomous vehicles in New York City and watch this number grow. Florida isn’t debating whether the future is legal, entrepreneurs and companies are flocking there in droves, building the future, all the while creating new high-paying jobs.
Frank Sinatra wouldn’t be impressed, he’d be embarrassed. Instead of “I want to be a part of it, New York, New York,” the new anthem is about to become Start spreadin’ the news, I’m leavin’ today… I want to be a part of it, Florida, Florida.
Our Take: We live in a global economy, and as we’ve seen time and time again, companies have no issue picking up and leaving when regulation becomes hostile.
Piquing Our Interest
Tesla FSD Goes Subscription Only Elon Musk has a knack for numbers and letters, and to no surprise he chose another well-known date to discontinue FSD (Valentines Day) as a one-time purchase. Beginning Feb. 15th, FSD will only be available via subscription.
Under the Cover of Darkness, Tesla Expands Cybercab Testing Tesla has expanded Cybercab testing to the highway in the evening.
Waymo Eyes Sydney Expansion Waymo has met with federal transport minister Catherine King as the company explores expanding to Sydney. Australia would be Waymo’s 4th country where they operate.
Waymo Further Opens Door to China in Australia Waymo has reportedly met with Chinese automakers in an effort to secure cars for a potential Sydney deployment.
San Diego Metropolitan Transit Board Votes Against Waymo In a 12-1 vote, the San Diego Metropolitan Transit Board passed a resolution opposing the expansion of Waymo’s robotaxis in San Diego, while calling for an outright ban at the airport.
Tensor Auto is Reportedly Preparing for an IPO Tensor Auto, formerly known as AutoX, is reportedly looking to raise between $300 to $400 million as the company eyes a late 2026/2027 IPO.
WeRide Surpasses 1,000 Robotaxis WeRide’s robotaxi fleet has grown to 1,023 vehicles operating in 10 cities around the world.
WeRide Now Available on WeChat WeChat users can now order WeRide robotaxi rides inside of the WeChat app in Guangzhou and Beijing, China.
PlusAI and T2 Partner to Deploy Autonomous Trucks in Japan Backed by a Mitsui investment, T2 and Plus AI have partnered to deploy autonomous trucks in Japan.
📰 Before these stories were featured here, they were available on X. Follow @RoadToAutonomy today to stay up-to-date on the latest news and developments shaping the autonomy economy.
Social Buzz
All Aboard With No Driver in Abu Dhabi
This week, Baidu launched a fully autonomous commercial robotaxi service (with no safety driver) on Yas Island in Abu Dhabi in partnership with AutoGo. The service area is currently 9.7 square miles.
Our take: The UAE is currently one of the most important robotaxi markets in the world
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