Houston, We Have Launch
May 4, 2025
This Week in The Autonomy Economy is presented by Koop, a specialist insurance provider focused on robotics and autonomous vehicles.
This Week in The Autonomy Economy, Aurora launched fully-autonomous commercial operations, Waymo entered into a preliminary agreement with Toyota to explore personally-owned autonomous vehicles and Uber continued it’s aggressive push to fragment the autonomous vehicle market.
Fragmentation or duopoly? That is the defining question one should ask when evaluating the autonomous vehicle market. A bet on fragmentation is a bet on Uber and a bet on duopoly is a bet that Waymo and Tesla will consolidate the market. Will the robotaxi market become a duopoly or a fragmented market with multiple market leaders?
Uber is betting that fragmentation wins at the end of the day. This week, the company announced a multi-year strategic partnership with May Mobility to deploy AVs on the Uber platform, starting later this year in Arlington, Texas.
But Uber didn’t stop there, the company also announced a deal with China-based Momenta to launch autonomous vehicles on the Uber platform in markets outside of the U.S., beginning with Europe in 2026.
This deal is most likely just the first of many deals that we expect both Uber and Lyft to cut with Chinese autonomous vehicle developers for deployments in Europe. Over time if the current policies hold, Chinese robotaxis will have a de facto monopoly over robotaxis in Europe.
Uber’s deal with Momenta may just be the starting point of a much larger shift in the autonomy economy in Europe. If Chinese autonomous vehicles scale across the continent, how will European policymakers respond? Will they intervene, or will it simply be too late?
By opening the door to Chinese AV developers, the EU inadvertently sold out the future of it’s once-dominant auto industry. Let’s not forget that VW has a joint-venture with Horizon Robotics in China and a partnership to co-develop advanced driver-assistance systems. At this rate, it should not be long until Horizon Robotics powered VW autonomous vehicles begin autonomously driving on the roads of Europe.
In China’s eyes, their Belt and Road Initiative has evolved into the Autonomous Belt and Road Initiative in Europe. EU politicians failed to see what China was doing with their goals of exporting autonomy to the world, and now it’s too late.
As Europe openly embraces China’s Autonomous Belt and Road Initiative, we’ve been out in the field gathering insight and learning about Waymo’s upcoming deployments. Next week, we will share what we have learned along with our thoughts on how Waymo is scaling operations.
👔The Road to Autonomy provides market intelligence and strategic advisory services to institutional investors and companies, delivering insights needed to stay ahead of emerging trends in the autonomy economy. To learn more, say hello (at) roadtoautonomy.com.
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What’s Moving the Markets
Houston, We Have LaunchÂ
Promises made, promises kept. This week, Aurora closed it’s safety case and officially launched fully-autonomous commercial trucking operations between Dallas and Houston, in partnership with Uber Freight and Hirschbach. It is a milestone moment for the trucking industry, and one that marks the beginning of the autonomy economy in the over-the-road trucking segment.
Aurora launched driver-out operations the right way with no shortcuts, no rushing and most importantly, no unnecessary risks. Safety is core to Aurora’s culture, and the entire company embodies that commitment.
The safety team is led by Nat Beuse, the company’s Chief Safety Officer. Nat is someone we are proud to call a friend and he deeply cares about safety. Mr. Beuse has made it his life’s mission to make our roads safer for every single member of the traveling public.
His commitment to safety was on full-display in the lead up to commercial launch. Mr. Beuse joined us on the March 14th episode of The Road to Autonomy podcast where he discussed Aurora’s mission to safely launch autonomous trucks.
For those who are interested in learning about Aurora’s approach to safety, we would highly recommend watching Inside Aurora’s Mission to Safely Launch Autonomous Trucks, featuring Nat Beuse.
While Mr. Beuse’s leadership deserves recognition, Aurora’s success was a team effort. Every single member of the Aurora team played a vital role in making this launch happen, and they are just getting started.
As of May 1st, Aurora has driven more than 1,200 fully-autonomous miles between Dallas and Houston, with plans to expand driver-out operations to El Paso, Texas, and Phoenix, Arizona by the end of 2025
Our take: Keep on trucking autonomously, Aurora. As Co-Founder and CEO Chris Urmson wrote in a blog post marking the occasion, this milestone marks the first day of Aurora’s next chapter.
Aurora is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the autonomous trucks category.
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Waymo Explores Preliminary Agreement with Toyota
Waymo’s pivot towards personally-owned autonomous vehicles appears to be alive and well. On April 29th, Waymo and Toyota announced a preliminary agreement to develop a new autonomous vehicle platform.
As part of the preliminary agreement, the two companies agreed to explore the development of personally-owned autonomous vehicles. While this is a positive signal for the autonomy economy and the continued advancement of Waymo’s technology, the announcement however raises more questions than it answers.
Did Waymo rush the news in response to Sundar Pichai’s comments on Alphabet’s Q1 earnings call? Or is this simply a strategic move to get ahead of Tesla’s anticipated robotaxi launch in June? Regardless of the motivation, the timing is significant and the implications are broad, as this development could reshape the trajectory of the autonomous vehicle industry.
Over the coming weeks and months, we will be watching closely for further details from both Waymo and Toyota as they work to finalize the agreement.
Our take: Waymo, the ball is in your court. What’s your next move and who do you make it with? Could this announcement be a negotiation tactic to gain leverage with Hyundai?
Waymo is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the autonomous vehicles category.
Uber is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the software platforms category.
Piquing Our Interest
May Mobility is Heading to Uber Beginning later this year in Arlington, Texas you might be paired with a May Mobility autonomous vehicle on Uber. Over the course of their new multi-year strategic partnership, Uber and May Mobility are planning to expand to multiple markets beginning in 2026.
Uber is Adding Chinese Robotaxis to the Platform in Europe In early 2026, Uber plans to roll out Chinese Momenta robotaxis on its platform in Europe, with safety operators onboard. The expansion of a Chinese AV company onto the Uber platform in Europe was a move we anticipated and discussed on the April 12, 2025 edition of Autonomy Markets. This is likely the first of several deals Uber will make in Europe with Chinese robotaxi companies. Could Lyft be next to strike a European deal with a Chinese AV partner?
Plus Successfully Completes Driver-Out Safety Maneuver Tests In preparation for its 2027 commercial launch, Plus recently completed a series of successful driver-out safety maneuvers on a closed course.
Waymo is in Talks to Expand Testing to The East Bay Waymo is currently planning to expand testing to Emeryville, CA, a quick ride over I-80 from San Francisco.
Nuro Hits The Road Again Nuro is back on the road once again collecting diverse data as the company leans into their licensing pivot and works towards
📰 Before these stories were featured here, they were available on X. Follow @RoadToAutonomy today to stay up-to-date on the latest news and developments shaping the autonomy economy.
Social Buzz
Waymo Spotted Testing Zeekr Robotaxi on I-80 Freeway
A Waymo Zeekr robotaxi with a safety driver was spotted testing on I-80 between San Francisco and the East Bay, shortly after reports surfaced that Waymo plans to begin testing in the East Bay city of Emeryville.
Our take: Waymo has a Zeekr problem, a problem that is highly political as the Waymo Zeekr RT robotaxis are manufactured in China. In this political climate, we find it very interesting that Waymo appears to be ramping up testing of the Zeekr vehicle on roads and highways. Furthermore, there are public photos that more Zeekr RT Waymo vehicles are on the way. We would ask Waymo, why?
National Autonomous Vehicle Framework: Coming Soon?
Secretary Duffy is the Innovation Secretary, as he is consistently putting innovation before bureaucracy. In a May 2nd interview with Fox Business, Secretary Duffy outlined the benefits and opportunities of a national autonomous vehicle framework. Are we getting closer to a federal AV policy?
Our take: The time is now. Put in place a national autonomous vehicle framework that includes trucks weighing over 10,001 pounds and watch the autonomy economy flourish in America.
Latest The Road to Autonomy Podcast
Scaling Autonomous Vehicle Fleets: Opportunities and Challenges
Sergey Litvinenko, Co-Founder & CEO, Koop joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss the emergence of autonomous vehicle fleets and why the fleet model is becoming the model for scaling autonomous vehicles globally.
Watch on YouTube | Spotify | X
Listen on Apple Podcasts
April 29, 2025
Latest Autonomy Markets Podcast
Waymo Redraws the Map, Aurora Goes Driverless, Uber Backs May Mobility to Challenge the Autonomy Duopoly
This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Waymo’s potential new partnership with Toyota, the launch of Aurora’s driver-out commercial operations and Uber’s continued effort to challenge the autonomy duopoly.
Watch on YouTube | Spotify | X
Listen on Apple Podcasts
May 3, 2025
Subscribe to This Week in The Autonomy Economyâ„¢
A weekly newsletter featuring insight and commentary on the autonomy economyâ„¢ and how the financial markets are viewing its emergence.
All price references and market forecasts are as of the date that this newsletter has been sent. The Road to Autonomy is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this newsletter. The information contained in this newsletter does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction. The Road to Autonomy is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer or financial planner. The information in this newsletter is being provided solely as general information.
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