Cybercab Is Coming, Waymo Isn’t Impressed

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Grayson’s field work across the Bay Area, Tesla’s September 3rd Cybercab launch and Nevada’s authorization of 8,000 autonomous vehicles in Clark County.

Fresh off a week of field work in California, Grayson shares firsthand impressions from his first rides in Waymo’s Zeekr-built Ojai, including a visit to Waymo’s Toland depot in San Francisco. While the Ojai rides lighter and less luxurious than the Jaguar I-PACE, its elevated sensor placement meaningfully reduces repair costs and insurance payouts in the event of a rear-end collision.

Grayson views the Ojai as a stopgap vehicle on the path to the Hyundai IONIQ 5, which he believes will be Waymo’s massive production ramp vehicle. After riding in the Zoox, the Ojai and the Jaguar back-to-back, and observing Waymo’s infrastructure buildout from San Francisco down to San Jose, Grayson makes a prediction. When Waymo adds roughly 1,000 to 1,200 additional vehicles in the Bay Area, the company will capture a significant portion of the rideshare market share.

Grayson also rode with Wayve with his AUTNMY AI co-founder Rob Grant in a fully dynamic, no-fixed-route supervised ride, noting the technology has accelerated meaningfully since his last ride in London as Wayve gears up for unsupervised operations.

Turning to Tesla, the Cybercab is scheduled to commercially launch in Austin on September 3rd, with Grayson expecting a measured rollout of sub-30 Cybercabs in week one, driven by an internal safety metric and infrastructure that is still being built out.

Meanwhile, Nevada’s Transportation Authority unanimously authorized 8,000 autonomous vehicles in Clark County over 12 months. But the growth comes with a catch, as autonomy drop-off fees and exclusive resort partnerships threaten to bring Vegas-style nickel and diming to robotaxis in Sin City.

On the foreign autonomy desk, China’s Autonomous Belt and Road Initiative continues to take hold in Europe.

Episode Chapters

• 0:00 Grayson’s Latest Bay Area Field Report
• 19:30 How Many Cars Will Actually Be on the Road when Cybercab Launches?
• 24:25 Tesla’s Self-Certification Strategy for Cybercab
• 25:31 Tesla Semi
• 30:40 Waymo’s 10 AI Lessons
• 36:36 The Robotaxi Infrastructure, Energy and Manufacturing Layers
• 37:38 Nevada Authorizes 8,000 Autonomous Vehicles in Clark County
• 39:55 Uber’s Robotaxi Playbook Raises Doubts
• 42:08 Waymo Expands to Munich, Germany
• 45:06 NVIDIA Earnings. Where is Automotive?
• 49:53 Autonomous Food Delivery
• 52:33 Who is Cheaper? Uber or Lyft?
• 56:39 SFO Robotaxi Access
• 58:10 Foreign Autonomy Desk
• 59:53 Next Week