London: The First City Where Waymo and Uber Will Compete
October 19, 2025
This Week in The Autonomy Economy is presented by Koop, a specialist insurance provider focused on robotics and autonomous vehicles.
This Week in the Autonomy Economy, Waymo announced an expansion to London, Wayve is in talks with SoftBank and Microsoft to raise $2 billion, and Tesla eyes Colorado and Illinois for robotaxi expansions.
As we prepare to head into the holiday season, the autonomy markets are heating up. Companies are making big moves and investors are becoming extremely interested in the sector again. Despite the regulatory hurdles that remain, autonomy is scaling and it’s becoming big business.
With Waymo being the biggest business of them all today. What they’re accomplishing is nothing short of impressive. But Waymo appears to be announcing new markets faster than they’re adding new vehicles to the fleet. We believe Waymo is vehicle-constrained as wait times are creeping up. It is becoming very evident that Waymo needs a more robust vehicle supply chain. Perhaps contract manufacturing could fill the void, or another OEM partnership?
Do we get to the point where Waymo has too many different types of vehicles from too many manufacturers? Should they consider designing a bespoke Waymo vehicle and having a contract manufacturer build it to their specs, similar to how Google designs the Pixel phone and Foxconn manufactures it?
This model works for phones. Why not cars? It would give Waymo complete control over design, margins, and manufacturing timelines without the constraints of traditional OEM partnerships.
The Pixel phone is designed for the Gemini Era. Why not design a vehicle for the Waymo Era?
📰 Need to Know: This Week in the Autonomy Economy
What is the biggest news in the robotaxi market this week?
Waymo announced it is expanding its autonomous ride-hailing service to London in 2026. This is a major development as it sets up the first-ever direct competition with Uber, which is launching its own commercial pilots in London that same spring with its partner, Wayve.
Why is the Waymo vs. Uber showdown in London so significant?
It will be the first time consumers can choose between a dedicated robotaxi app (Waymo) and a robotaxi service integrated into an existing ride-hailing platform (Uber). The results will provide critical data on what consumers value, a guaranteed autonomous ride or platform convenience, which could shape the entire global robotaxi market.
Are investors still interested in autonomous vehicles?
Yes, and the market is “heating up.” As evidence, Wayve, Waymo’s new competitor in London, is reportedly in talks with SoftBank and Microsoft to raise up to $2 billion, which would value the company at $8 billion.
What challenges is market-leader Waymo facing as it scales?
Waymo may be “vehicle-constrained,” meaning it is announcing new markets faster than it can add cars to its fleet, leading to longer wait times. This has sparked speculation that Waymo may need to find a new manufacturing solution, such as designing a bespoke vehicle and using a contract manufacturer, similar to how Google designs the Pixel phone.
What is Tesla’s latest Robotaxi moves?
Tesla is eyeing an expansion for its robotaxi program and is reportedly looking to hire Vehicle Operators for its Autopilot program in two new states: Colorado and Illinois. Additionally, Elon Musk announced that the Tesla vehicles operating in The Boring Company’s tunnels under Las Vegas will be fully driverless within “a month or two.”
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What’s Moving the Markets
London: The First City Where Waymo and Uber Will Compete
For the first time ever, Waymo and Uber are about to compete head-to-head with their own robotaxi services in the same city. This week, Waymo announced they’re bringing their autonomous ride-hailing service to London in 2026, setting up a direct showdown with Uber, which is launching commercial pilots with Wayve that same spring.
The timing is notable. Waymo’s decision to launch with fleet operations partner Moove, rather than Uber, signals a growing tension between the partners, tension we’ve discussed in depth on Autonomy Markets.
Since Waymo and Uber launched commercial service in Atlanta, Waymo has announced expansions to New York, Denver, Seattle, Dallas, Nashville (with Lyft), Boston, and now London, all without Uber.
The pattern is clear, and London may become the first of many markets where they compete directly rather than collaborate. When this happens, the market will act as a voting machine. For the first time, we’ll get real data on how consumers choose between Waymo and Uber’s competing robotaxi services, and what that means for both companies’ long-term global market share.
The strategic implications of what happens in London are significant and they could impact the entire robotaxi market. When both services launch, Londoners will face a choice: stick with Uber or download the Waymo app.
If Waymo sees strong adoption and a spike in app downloads, Uber may be forced to expand their dedicated “Autonomous” tier, currently only available in Abu Dhabi to London in an effort to compete more effectively. If this happens, it reinforces the value of a dedicated robotaxi service.
As we’ve experienced personally, and as has been well documented on X and Reddit, today’s Uber robotaxi experience is less than ideal. In Austin, we’ve had to order and cancel rides 10 times just to get paired with a Waymo. A dedicated tier, or in Waymo’s case, a dedicated app fixes this issue and eliminates all the stress this inconsistent experience causes.
In London, we wouldn’t even bother opening the Uber app when there’s an alternative that guarantees us a robotaxi. What we are about to see in London could give us critical insights into consumer behavior, insights that could reshape the global autonomous vehicle market.
In particular, we will be looking for the following insights:
- Can a dedicated robotaxi service compete with a ride-hailing platform?Waymo is betting consumers will download a separate app for guaranteed robotaxi rides. Uber is betting its platform distribution is unbeatable. The answer will shape how robotaxis rolls out globally, either through dedicated services or integrated into existing ride-hailing apps.
- Does Waymo’s brand and technology scale internationally?Waymo has dominated the US robotaxi market by being extremely reliable and scaling faster than anyone else. But international expansion is different, there are new regulations, new road environments, and new competitors with home-field advantage. If Wayve’s more adaptable technology proves effective in London’s complex streets, it could challenge Waymo’s London market share.
- What does the consumer actually value?Is it proven technology? Brand recognition? A dedicated service? Or is it convenience and staying within an app you already use? The answer could determine how billions of dollars in autonomous vehicle investments get deployed over the next decade.
Beyond these strategic questions, London will provide the first real market data on autonomous vehicle adoption in a dense, transit-rich city. Will Londoners adopt and embrace robotaxis when they have extensive tube and bus networks? How much will they pay? How quickly will adoption curve upward?
Every autonomous vehicle company and investor in the sector will be watching London in 2026. The data generated there will inform expansion strategies, technology choices, and partnership decisions for years to come.
For Waymo and Uber, London isn’t just a new market, it’s a battle. If Waymo wins London, Uber will have a long-term robotaxi problem that can no longer be masked under the guise of ride demand generation, as Waymo will just have blown up that narrative.
At that point, Uber needs to go all-in and accelerate their Nuro/Lucid and Wayve partnerships, secure OEM manufacturing contracts, own the robotaxi fleet outright, and launch a dedicated robotaxi app.
Half-measures won’t cut it. The London data will prove what we already know, consumers choose guaranteed robotaxis over platform convenience. Uber will be forced to accelerate their ownership of robotaxi assets, starting with the Nuro/Lucid vehicles, not just facilitate rides in a competitor’s vehicle.
Our take: London is not just a market, it’s a proving ground and what happens there will impact the entire global robotaxi industry for decades to come.
Waymo is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the autonomous vehicle category.
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Piquing Our Interest
Wayve is in Talks with Microsoft and SoftBank to Raise $2 Billion Wayve is in talks with Microsoft and SoftBank to raise up to $2 billion in a funding round that would value the company at $8 billion.
A 52-Minute, Zero-Intervention Fully Autonomous Drive in Congested London with Wayve Earlier this month, we were in London and took a ride in Wayve’s Gen 2 vehicle. We released the full 52-minute zero-intervention ride, which you can watch here.
DoorDash and Waymo Partner for Autonomous Deliveries In the coming months, Waymo will begin autonomously delivering DoorDash orders across a 315-square-mile service area in Phoenix.
Honda Makes an Additional Investment in Helm.ai Honda has made an additional strategic investment in Helm.ai, as the companies work to accelerate the development of Honda’s next-generation ADAS, scheduled to launch in North America and Japan in 2027.
Tesla Eyes Colorado and Illinois Robotaxi Expansion Tesla is looking to hire Vehicle Operators for its Autopilot program in two new markets: Colorado and Illinois.
Stellantis and Pony.AI to Test Autonomous Vans in Luxembourg In the coming months, Pony.ai, in partnership with Stellantis, will begin testing Peugeot e-Traveller vehicles with safety drivers.
JD.com is Building a Car Chinese e-commerce company JD.com, in partnership with CATL subsidiary Era Electric Service and GAC Group, is building a new car. Could an autonomous vehicle be next?
📰 Before these stories were featured here, they were available on X. Follow @RoadToAutonomy today to stay up-to-date on the latest news and developments shaping the autonomy economy.
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Our take: Next step, more tunnels.
Tesla is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the personally owned autonomous vehicle category.
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