The Autonomous Decade
June 15, 2025
This Week in The Autonomy Economy is presented by Koop, a specialist insurance provider focused on robotics and autonomous vehicles.
This Week in The Autonomy Economy, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang declared this the decade of AVs, robotics, and autonomous machines, Wayve announced they are going to deploy fully autonomous vehicles in London in partnership with Uber in 2026, and Meta’s AI ambitions are growing bolder, while OpenAI is reportedly contemplating entering the autonomous driving sector.
There’s never a dull week in the autonomy economy, and this week was no exception. If both Meta and OpenAI officially enter the autonomous driving market, they won’t be building cars or operating a robotaxi service, instead they will license their AI autonomous driving models, in a move that potentially will upend the industry .
If this were to happen, two major implications would emerge. First, this would validate Tesla’s long-criticized approach to autonomous driving. Second, Alphabet’s Waymo is at a serious competitive disadvantage. The old model, Waymo’s model requiring a multitude of sensors and meticulously pre-mapped operational design domains (ODDs) would quickly become obsolete.
Waymo would be forced to pivot toward their End-to-End Multimodal Model (EMMA) model. If that pivot happens, it raises serious questions about Waymo’s perceived competitive advantage. Was it all a mirage? If it was all a mirage, Waymo would lose their current leadership position in the robotaxi market.
Then the question becomes, is this Waymo yet another chapter in Alphabet’s history where the company had the tech, once led to only fall behind? And if so, the calls to break up Alphabet and to de-conglomerate to unlock shareholder value will only grow louder.
Unfortunately or fortunately, Alphabet has a dual-class shareholder structure with Larry Page and Sergey Brin controlling the vote, so it wont happen. But if it was a reality, who would be Alphabet’s Larry Culp?
At GE, Larry Culp did a remarkable job unlocking shareholder value. Since Mr. Culp split GE into three companies, GE Aerospace, GE Vernova, and GE Healthcare, the combined market cap has reached $415.98 billion, more than six times GE’s valuation prior to the breakup.
Now consider this in the context of Alphabet, Netflix, with a $515.86 billion market cap, generated $10.54 billion in Q1 revenue and trades at a P/E of 57. YouTube generated $8.93 billion in Q1 revenue. If YouTube traded at a similar multiple, it could be worth around $500 billion on it’s own.Yet Alphabet trades at a P/E of 16.9.
Is YouTube truly being valued appropriately within the Alphabet? Or is it suffering from the conglomerate discount? Discount or not, YouTube is growing. At the same time, Alphabet’s core business, Google search is facing increasing pressure from LLMs, with ChatGPT leading the way. And now, Waymo may face an existential threat very similar to the one Google search is facing.
When this moment arrives, which looks more and more plausible each and every day, Larry and Sergey must take a hard look in the mirror and ask who is our Larry Culp?
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What’s Moving the Markets
Uber Hedges Against Waymo with Wayve
Beginning in the Spring of 2026, Wayve in partnership with Uber will begin operating fully autonomous vehicles with passengers in London with no safety driver. Marking the first time anyone will be able to order an autonomous Uber in the UK without a safety driver behind the wheel.
This is a major milestone in the history of autonomous vehicles and further cements the UK’s lead over the EU in terms of autonomous vehicle regulations and deployments.
While the service will initially operate as a pilot under UK regulations, there is a clear path to scale beginning in the second half of 2027, when the UK’s Automated Vehicles Act becomes law.
On a global level, this move also functions as a strategic hedge for Uber, particularly against its increasingly complex relationship with Waymo. As we have detailed in this newsletter and on Autonomy Markets, Uber has a growing Waymo problem.
With this new deployment, Uber appears to be going all-in on Wayve, hedging against the possibility that Waymo may eventually sever ties completely, while continuing to pursue their Waymo One robotaxi deployments independently.
But, the key questions still remain. Who is the OEM partner and who will own the fleet? When asked by Bloomberg about fleet ownership, Wayve CEO and Co-Founder Alex Kendall notably dodged the question. So we’ll ask it again: Who will own the fleet?
Could it potentially be Softbank? Is SoftBank quietly in the process of creating a REIT-like structure for autonomous vehicles, a financial model built to own and lease AV fleets?
Nothing would surprise us after reading Lionel Barber’s Gambling Man: The Secret Story of the World’s Greatest Disruptor, which chronicles the bold, often unconventional strategies of Masayoshi Son.
While the Uber/Wayve partnership looks great on paper, the real impact lies in the fine print. Is this deal exclusive to Uber? Or does it leave the door open for Waymo, which we believe has ambitions to launch in London?
What happens if Waymo does enter London, but without Uber? Would that signal to the market that Waymo intends to compete against Uber and not renew their Austin and Atlanta agreements? If so, would Uber potentially retaliate by launching a Wayve-powered service in Waymo markets Los Angeles or San Francisco?
Anything is possible, but what we do know at this time is that Waymo and Uber currently have a tenuous relationship. Uber needs a hedge to protect their position in the market and that hedge, in our opinion, is Wayve.
Our take: Wayve is one of the most interesting companies in autonomy today with a very bright future.
Wayve is currently ranked #3 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the autonomous vehicles category.
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Piquing Our Interest
From the Metaverse to the Autonomousverse On Wednesday, Meta unveiled a new real-world AI model called V-JEPA 2, designed to understand, predict, and plan in the physical world, including the ability to drive a car. Could Waymo soon have a new deep-pocketed competitor?
Another Day, Another Autonomous Truck Delivered Kodiak continues to scale their industrial business. This week, Kodiak announced the delivery of two additional fully autonomous trucks to Atlas Energy as part of a 100-truck order and the launch of 24/7 autonomous operations in the Permian Basin.
Aurora is Investing in the Workforce of the Future Aurora has partnered with On the Road Garage, a transportation workforce development company to launch an apprenticeship and job program.
Autonomous Vehicles Are Coming to the UK and So Are the Jobs As the UK prepares to allow fully autonomous vehicles beginning in Spring of 2026, the country is preparing for the creation of 38,000 new jobs.
May Mobility AVs are Coming to Atlanta Soon on Lyft In a post on X, Lyft CEO David Risher announced that May Mobility’s autonomous Toyota Sienna’s have begun public road testing ahead of their commercial launch later this summer.
Waymo Grounds LA Fleet Indefinitely After the infamous summing, smashing and burning of Waymos in Downtown LA, Waymo made the decision to ground the fleet indefinitely. When Waymo will resume service in LA remains anyone’s guess at this point.
Coco Robotics Raises $80M Coco Robotics, a company developing autonomous last-mile delivery robots, announced this week that they company has raised $80 million to scale its fleet. On an upcoming episode of The Road to Autonomy, Zach Rash, CEO and Co-Founder, will be joining us to discuss the business and their strategic partnership with OpenAI.
Xpeng is Developing Advanced Chips for VW Cars Under Oliver Blume’s leadership, VW is going all-in on China. First came the joint venture with Horizon Robotics in 2022, followed by an investment in Xpeng in 2023, and now a deal for AI chips in China. What’s next? Will the CCP take a significant stake in VW through a state-owned enterprise?
📰 Before these stories were featured here, they were available on X. Follow @RoadToAutonomy today to stay up-to-date on the latest news and developments shaping the autonomy economy.
Social Buzz
Tesla Goes Fully Autonomous in Austin
On June 10th, the first videos and photos of Teslas driving fully autonomously without a safety driver on public roads in Austin surfaced on X. The most notable insight from these posts, the vehicles were testing in a heavily trafficked area of the city, not out near Giga Texas. In our view, this is a clear sign of Tesla’s growing confidence in the current state of FSD.
Our take: If and when Tesla successfully scales FSD Unsupervised as a robotaxi, the next step is personally-owned FSD Unsupervised vehicles. If and when that moment arrives, it will upend the entire autonomous vehicle industry.
Tesla is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the personally owned autonomous vehicles category.
Tesla to Launch Robotaxi Service on June 22nd?
Elon is once again back to posting about Tesla on X. It’s a clear indicator that he is all-in on robotaxi. In a June 10th post, Mr. Musk indicated that Tesla is tentatively preparing to launch robotaxi commercial service on June 22nd, followed by fully autonomous home delivery on June 28th in Austin.
Our take: Even if the June 22nd launch slips, Tesla’s robotaxi service is coming soon, and when it does, we’re heading to Austin to experience it firsthand.
Latest The Road to Autonomy Podcast
Financial News Media Disconnect, Uber Doubles Down, Will Alphabet Ever IPO Waymo?
Pete Bigelow, Senior Reporter, Automotive News joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss the financial news media’s disconnect on autonomy, Uber’s doubling down on autonomy and Alphabet’s long-term plans for Waymo
Watch on YouTube | Spotify | X
Listen on Apple Podcasts
June 10, 2025
Latest Autonomy Markets Podcast
Tesla Goes Driver Out, Unraveling the Tenuous Waymo Uber Relationship, Will The UK Leave the EU Behind Again?
This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss the start of Tesla’s driver-out operations in Austin, the tenuous relationship between Waymo and Uber, and the UK’s momentum on autonomous vehicle regulation, while the EU remains at a standstill.
Watch on YouTube | Spotify | X
Listen on Apple Podcasts
June 14, 2025
