Was Aurora Driver-Out a Head Fake?
May 18, 2025
This Week in The Autonomy Economy is presented by Koop, a specialist insurance provider focused on robotics and autonomous vehicles.
This Week in The Autonomy Economy, the crisis that is currently engulfing Aurora took on a new life of its own on Friday afternoon after Aurora announced that they are ceasing driver-out operations at the request of their OEM partner PACCAR.
And if things in the autonomy industry could not get any stranger, Austin Russell resigned as Chairman and CEO of Luminar on Thursday, “following a code of business conduct and ethics inquiry” by the board of directors audit committee.
As we told our good friend Pete Bigelow at Automotive News, the people, egos, companies, and plot twists unfolding in the autonomy markets are setting the stage for one heck of a future Netflix series.
Jay Gould, the 19th-century railroad financier, is likely looking down with envy as certain individuals are eagerly eyeing consolidating the autonomy markets, albeit with less ruthlessness than Gould employed when consolidated the railroads from 1874 to the late 1880s.
More than 140 years later, another emerging industry is soon to enter its consolidation phase. Unforced errors and political maneuvering are clearing the way for a new power player. The only question is: Who will that player be and what vehicle will they use to consolidate the market?
👔The Road to Autonomy provides market intelligence and strategic advisory services to institutional investors and companies, delivering insights needed to stay ahead of emerging trends in the autonomy economy. To learn more, say hello (at) roadtoautonomy.com.
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What’s Moving the Markets
Was Aurora Driver-Out a Head Fake?
What was expected to be a celebratory month for Aurora following the launch of its driver-out commercial operations has unraveled into a full-blown crisis that is engulfing the company and is poised to further intensify when the markets open on Monday.
In an unusually timed Friday afternoon blog post released during market hours, Co-Founder & CEO Chris Urmson announced Aurora is ceasing all driver-out commercial operations at the request of PACCAR.
When we launched our driverless trucking service last month, it was a moment guided by safety and underpinned by rigorous testing, painstaking validation, and a deep commitment to our mission. A core part of our strategy has always been building a strong ecosystem of partners across the industry — from OEMs to logistics providers to regulators. These partnerships are essential to delivering a safe, scalable, commercial product.
One of those partners, PACCAR, requested we have a person in the driver’s seat, because of certain prototype parts in their base vehicle platform. We are confident this is not required to operate the truck safely based on the exhaustive testing (covering nearly 10,000 requirements and 2.7 million tests) and analysis that populates our safety case.
PACCAR is a long-time partner and, after much consideration, we respected their request and are moving the observer, who had been riding in the back of some of our trips, from the back seat to the front seat.
This observer will not operate the vehicle — the Aurora Driver will continue to be fully responsible for all driving tasks, including pulling over to a safe location if required. And we’ve shown we can do that safely, with the Aurora Driver operating for more than 6,000 driverless miles along our commercial launch lane between Dallas and Houston. This change has no impact on our near, mid and long-term development plans.
Our partnerships are critical to our long term strategy. We’re confident in the technology, grateful for our partners, and excited about the driverless road we’re on.
– Chris Urmson, Co-Founder & CEO, Aurora, May 16, 2025 Blog Post
While attempting to perform damage control with his blog post, Mr. Urmson may have only deepened the crisis currently engulfing Aurora. His oddly timed Friday post raised more questions than it answered, particularly the revelation that, at times, an “observer” was present in the truck during supposed driver-out operations.
How many trips included an observer? And why was there one at all, when Aurora stated in a May 1st 8-K filing that it had launched “driverless customer deliveries between Dallas and Houston”?
Were there any interventions? Has an observer ever had to take control of the vehicle? Is the “observer” ever involved in the driving process, or are these trucks operating fully autonomous, dock-to-dock operations?
What exactly was the “observer” watching for? If they witnessed anything concerning, did they report it? Did they ever see anything that forced them to spring into action and take control of the truck?
If the “observer” witnessed things and reported them, could that have potentially spooked PACCAR into requesting the immediate reinstatement of safety drivers behind the wheel at all times?
Or did PACCAR simply never sign off on the driver-out launch in the first place? The blacked-out Peterbilt logos in Aurora’s media materials, the absence of any public endorsement from PACCAR, and the lack of even a routine congratulatory post on social media all raise serious questions leading to speculation that PACCAR did not approve Aurora launching driver-out commercial operations using their trucks.
Launching driver-out commercial operations is a monumental feat, and it is typically celebrated by all key partners. Yet PACCAR continues to remain silent and has refused to comment on any of the stories in the media that have surfaced since Mr. Urmson’s blog post, further adding to the speculation that PACCAR did not approve of driver-out operations.
If PACCAR indeed did not approve and sign-off on driver-out operations, will they ever approve driver-out for Aurora? Or is that bridge now burnt beyond repair. Will PACCAR try to stop Aurora from using their trucks all together? When will PACCAR make a public statement?
If the bridge is no longer repairable, how long will it be until the Volvo VNL is ready for commercial launch? Given the events of the month (Sterling Anderson’s resignation, Uber’s proposed $1 billion dollar private placement and PACCAR’s demand that Aurora cease all driver-out operations), will Volvo reevaluate their partnership with Aurora?
Most importantly, what is Aurora’s new path to driver-out commercial operations?
These are the questions that the market needs answers to as change is coming to Aurora. What form it takes remains to be seen, but change is inevitable.
Our take: The market needs clarity and it deserves to know what’s truly happening at Aurora. A public statement from PACCAR about the current situation would begin to help the market truly understand what is happening at Aurora.
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Piquing Our Interest
Bot Auto Reaffirms Plans to Launch Driver-Out Commercial Operations Later This Year Bart Teeter, Director of Fleet and Operational Safety reaffirmed Bot Auto’s plans to launch driver-out commercial autonomous trucking operations between Houston and San Antonio by the end of the year for an initial four months.
Uber Announces Proposed $1 Billion Dollar Private Placement Uber has proposed a private placement of $1 billion in Aurora Exchangeable Senior Notes.
Baidu Plans Europe Robotaxi Expansion The trend of Chinese robotaxis expanding to Europe is accelerating with Baidu’s plans to open an office in Switzerland and launch operations in Europe later this year.
WeRide Launches Fully Autonomous Robotaxi Operations in Abu Dhabi WeRide has become the first company in history to launch fully autonomous robotaxi operations in Abu Dhabi.
Pony.ai and WeRide Looking to Go Public in Hong Kong Amid growing pressure over potential U.S. delistings of Chinese companies, Pony.ai and WeRide have filed to go public on the Hong Kong Exchange.
Waymo Recalls 1,200 Vehicles Waymo has issued an over-the-air software update (recall) that fixes a bug that could cause its vehicles to crash into chains and gates.
Luminar Co-Founder & CEO Resigns Austin Russell, who founded Luminar in 2012 at the age of 17 has resigned “following a code of business conduct and ethics inquiry” by the board of directors’ audit committee.
📰 Before these stories were featured here, they were available on X. Follow @RoadToAutonomy today to stay up-to-date on the latest news and developments shaping the autonomy economy.
Social Buzz
Waymo is Road Tripping to Boston and Dallas
Waymo is once again hitting the road, this time with two new road trips to Boston and Dallas, two cities that are familiar with robotaxis. In Boston, photos and videos have surfaced showing a fleet of seven Waymo vehicles parked in an unsecured lot at the TownePlace Suites in Medford, MA.
Our take: When Waymo embarks on a road trip, a pattern of not having infrastructure secured is emerging. How long will it be until Waymo embarks on a road trip with a depot partner?
Waymo is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the autonomous vehicle category.
Wayve-Powered Autonomous Vehicles Coming Soon to Uber
Wayve-powered autonomous vehicles appear poised to be available on Uber across multiple markets sooner than expected. The only remaining questions are, who will the OEM partners be that deploy the vehicles on the Uber network.
Our take: An Uber / Wayve partnership is a dynamic duo and one that could completely reshape the entire robotaxi market.
Wayve is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the licensing category.
Uber is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the software platforms category.
Latest The Road to Autonomy Podcast
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David Welch, Detroit Bureau Chief, Bloomberg joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss Waymo’s growing competitive advantage in the market, Uber’s strategy and the many challenges facing Tesla.
Watch on YouTube | Spotify | X
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This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Waymo’s recall, Tesla’s most recent NHTSA letter and Sterling Anderson’s surprise move to join GM as EVP & Chief Product Officer.
Watch on YouTube | Spotify | X
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May 18, 2025
Subscribe to This Week in The Autonomy Economy™
A weekly newsletter featuring insight and commentary on the autonomy economy™ and how the financial markets are viewing its emergence.
All price references and market forecasts are as of the date that this newsletter has been sent. The Road to Autonomy is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this newsletter. The information contained in this newsletter does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction. The Road to Autonomy is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer or financial planner. The information in this newsletter is being provided solely as general information.
