Is ADAS the Trojan Horse Into Autonomy?

Executive Summary

The Financial Times confirmed tensions in the Waymo/Uber partnership, with Waymo planning its own app in Austin and Atlanta by January 2028 and both Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk predicting an earlier termination.

Zoox received an NHTSA exemption allowing it to charge for rides for the first time in its 12-year history, capped at 2,500 vehicles per year for two years, which the hosts view as a positive step toward a single national safety standard via the SAE ITC consortium.

Aurora‘s autonomous trucking progress was scrutinized, with questions about supervised versus driverless miles, the PACCAR relationship, and a target of 1,000 trucks by end of next year. Qualcomm’s selection by BMW as lead compute silicon for next-gen ADAS and GM’s Super Cruise expansion underscored the growing L2+ ADAS market as a potential Trojan horse into full autonomy.

Key Autonomy Markets Episode Questions Answered

Autonomy Markets Topics & Timestamps

[0:00] Waymo/Uber Divorce Goes Public

The Financial Times confirms Waymo will launch its own app in Austin and Atlanta in January 2028, and both sides are now airing grievances in public. Grayson goes on the record that the relationship ends early with a Waymo One app in both markets by June 2027.

[5:45] Uber’s Autonomous Vehicle Partner Problem

Uber’s autonomous vehicle partners aggregate to fewer than 1,000 vehicles on the platform while Waymo alone operates roughly 10,000. Losing Waymo leaves Uber without a scaled replacement.

[10:28] Waymo’s OEM Partner Signals

Toyota and Hyundai are deepening their relationships with Waymo, signaling the vehicle supply is falling into place for an independent scaling strategy.

[12:25] Zoox Gets the Golden Ticket

After 12 years and billions invested, NHTSA granted Zoox an exemption to charge for rides, capped at 2,500 vehicles per year for two years. The ruling also creates the regulatory template for the Cybercab.

[16:52] Advancing America’s Safety and Competitiveness for the Evolution of National Deployments

The industry is organizing around a national safety best practice through the SAE ITC consortium. Once the federal government signs off, the vehicle caps evaporate.

[20:16] Aurora Q2 2026 Earnings

Aurora is targeting 1,000 trucks by the end of next year against 200 this year, a heavily back-end loaded ramp dependent on truck supply and Roush capacity. Supervised miles do not count toward proving the business.

[27:43] How Big Is the OEM Risk?

PACCAR is dismissive of driver-out and Aurora’s ramp depends on OEMs that have competing priorities. The margin split with Volvo Autonomous Solutions remains an open question.

[30:38] ADAS as the Trojan Horse Into Autonomy

BMW selected Qualcomm’s Snapdragon as lead compute for next-generation ADAS, confirming the growth of the L2+ market. GM’s Super Cruise posted its best quarter ever as ADAS becomes the on-ramp to autonomy revenue.

[35:42] Ford BlueCruise Falls Short

While Super Cruise accelerates, BlueCruise is falling behind on capability and adoption. Ford is ceding the ADAS revenue opportunity to GM.

[37:23] Foreign Autonomy Desk: Baidu RT6 Testing in London with Uber & Lyft

Baidu began RT6 robotaxi testing on the outskirts of London with both Uber and Lyft, while securing a full driverless permit in Hong Kong as China resumes issuing robotaxi permits.

[41:33] Next Week

Uber reports earnings, and the market gets its first read on how the company frames life after Waymo.

Full Episode Transcript

Waymo-Uber Divorce Goes Public

Grayson Brulte: Walt, I saw the headline in the Financial Times, and immediately I thought of the new Beetlejuice movie. The Waymo-Uber divorce went public, and as in the movie, it appears that it’s getting messy. And then today, Zoox called up Willy Wonka, and they got the golden ticket. Holy cow, after 12 years, Zoox is 12 years old, they can finally charge for a ride. And then Aur- Aurora reported earnings, and I got a lot of questions out of that. But let’s get into the messy divorce, ’cause if you wanna s- pull up Michael Keaton, “Here’s Beetlejuice,” or, “Here’s Johnny,” if you wanna go to The Shining, we can get into it. So start with the messy, messy divorce

Walter Piecyk: That was definitely a, a very intense opening. Well done. A better cold opening than what I had to endure with some of Brandon Ross’s opening songs on the LightShed podcast. But that’s you waking up our listeners right from the get-go. and everyone’s eyes kind of popped out on Friday. This is after we had recorded last week’s episode with the Financial Times giving some more details about this topic that, that you and I have been talking about for the past year, which is the Waymo and, and Uber relationship. And while, you know, many people will say, “Oh, you know, expected, expected,” the stock was off 5%, not expected you know, ultimately by, by investors to that degree. It was certainly another leg down in the stock, and we’ve talked about how every kind of, you know, plus and minus of this relationship has resulted in some movement in the stock. But I think the key data here is that Waymo is gonna have its own app in Austin and Atlanta in January of ’28. The entire contract, Grayson, ends in May of 2028. I think we just have to assume that, that it will end by then. so we have timelines, and so when, when we go to Austin and Atlanta in January of ’28, we won’t have to hope that we get a Waymo, you know, when we, when we use the app and, and try and figure out ways to get the Waymo there. So I guess the first question I have for you is y- do you think this really ends up lasting until January of 2028? Do you think we will not see a Waymo One app in Austin and Atlanta before January of ’28?

Grayson Brulte: It’s my belief that the game of autonomous roulette will end sooner than the date that the FT reported. Now, if you wanna say the, the cat’s out of the bag, and now that it’s been publicly documented, publicly reported, and confirmed by the companies in that article, I wanna point out it wasn’t speculation, it was confirmed by the companies in that FT report. I say, and I’ll say this for the record, this relationship is going to terminate sooner rather than later. The question is, does Uber try and hold on until they have a partner to replace it that is ready for it? That is the thing that I’m watching

Walter Piecyk: In this report and, and it’s citing the companies, you know, they’re talking about complaints on both sides, right? Waymo talking about dirty cars, which I know is one of your hot button items but also bad routing. When you think about that very high profile and embarrassing, you know, the mainstream media loves to pick up on these Waymos circling around a cul-de-sac and, and make it, make, you know, the autonomous vehicle look bad. But apparently those cars were sent there by Uber. On the flip side, Uber’s talking about, you know, how it doesn’t work in weather, okay? Or weather no-shows and unsustainable financial terms, again, according to this, I think, press report. I guess let’s, let’s start on the Waymo side of things ’cause they’re the ones that seem more anxious to get out of this agreement. It feels like it’s Uber that’s holding them there till January of ’28. It– You know, you– If Uber is in fact routing their cars in this way, where the cars are not getting maintained the way Waymo has expected, wouldn’t Google have good enough lawyers to have had out clauses to get out of these contracts prior to January of 2028?

Grayson Brulte: Yeah, Alphabet has some of the, the finest lawyers in the world, and the one thing with autonomy, as we’ve seen in the various different incidents that have happened with individuals sabotaging these vehicles, there’s cameras and there’s data. So perhaps these lawyers are going through the data and comparing it to the data they have in-house to potentially find a. And now, I don’t know, I’m just assuming, because you and I both know, and our audience knows, these vehicles gather a lot, a lot of data

Walter Piecyk: Again, you know, let’s get a specific answer out of you. When will we see in Austin or Atlanta a Waymo One app?

Predictions: When Will Waymo Launch Its Own App in Austin and Atlanta?

Grayson Brulte: I will go on the record and I will say by June of 2027

Walter Piecyk: I’m gonna take an under on that ’cause I just think that this relationship is just, at this point is publicly, you know, torn. So like, what’s the point of, of extending this? And I think, you know, certainly Uber can operate. It could be a quick switch, right? I, I don’t think Uber. Uber can obviously continue to operate in that market without any problems and, you know, I’m not sure how long it really takes Waymo to stick them on their own app. It can’t– I wouldn’t think it takes that long. So I’m gonna take the under on your June 27th

Grayson Brulte: The reason I’m saying June 27th, so today’s July 30th, these are all hypothetical made-up numbers. You’re gonna h- Waymo’s gonna have to get a depot, they’re gonna have to get charging infrastructure in the ground, they’re gonna have to get permits. That takes time, so you’re looking at months of that. And then on the Uber side, I’m also taking the hedge of how long until AV Ride is ready to go in Austin. Perhaps AV Ride will be the new partner that replaces Waymo. That’s just an assumption there, but based on the presence that we’ve seen from the Texas Department of Motor Vehicles, where the AV Ride vehicles are clearly ramping up in Texas

Walter Piecyk: I mean, that’s some optimism right there. by Grayson on behalf of Uber with one of their partners in AVride. And, you know, I put out a report on this earlier this week. I went through each of the partners, Motional, AVride, and our experiences that we both have had with them. Nuro, Rivian, Waabi, Zoox, right? In the U.S, May Mobility even has a partnership. I mean, you look at the most optimistic scenarios for these companies, and, you know, a year t- a year from today, what in aggregate of, of cars autonomous will they have on the road? I, I’m not even gonna say autonomous, Grayson. I’m gonna say even with a safety driver. I’m gonna give you the safety driver. How many you have on, on the road in a month in aggregate? My guess is less than 1,000. And then compare that to where will Waymo be in a year’s time. You know what the number is? 10,000. 10,000 in 30 markets, and how many is, is are the Uber partners gonna have in a year? Now, look, we don’t judge this industry over the course of a year. you know, it’s really where are we gonna be in year three and year five and what have you. But, like, think about that and the catalyst over the next year and, and how that looks

Waymo’s Scale Advantage Over Uber’s AV Partners

Grayson Brulte: Walt, supervised is not autonomous. Supervised doesn’t count. Waymo has set the bar. It is not supervised. They’ve set the bar in terms of vehicles, which are roughly around 3,000 according to Bloomberg. They set the vehicle in ti- in, in terms of ODD size. Waymo is the global benchmark that everybody is, is, is striving to meet. And not to be Debbie Downer, but the companies that are on their heels, as you see in the Road to Autonomy Robotaxi Index, it’s Baidu. Baidu keeps ramping up. And so it is, supervised doesn’t count. And if you look at Uber’s domestic US partners, to get to the scale of Waymo, where they are just clearly based in the US, I will give you a number, they are probably at least three years behind to get to where Waymo is, at least. And that’s from a technology standpoint, and that’s from a regulatory standpoint. Because if you look at Uber’s partnership with Nuro in California, the regulatory timeframe, Uber’s three years behind Waymo in California, any way you slice it. And you start multiplying that around, you say 10,000, I’m gonna go 15,000 cars by the time that Uber gets to, to, to some sort of meaningful competition. And the cars are gonna be sub-1,000. So Waymo’s, in all th- practical purposes, will have a 14,000 car lead. That’s a big insurmountable amount, and I ha- We’re coming to the fall, so i- is that your beloved Philadelphia Eagles walking their way into the Super Bowl? Is that, is that what Waymo’s doing?

Walter Piecyk: Well, there’s a lot to unpack there. but let’s start with y- you’re taking even– I was trying to show the disparity with where Waymo’s gonna be versus the Uber partners, and you even made that disparity deeper. Fine. But in terms of insurmountable I don’t wanna say anything’s insurmountable. If anything that AI has taught us in terms of these models keep leapfrogging themselves and open models and, and, and the fact that, like, at the end of the day, 10,000 is not in– or 15,000, in my mind, is not scale, right? In the US alone, Uber and Lyft have 2 million, 2 million drivers there. So there’s– Nothing is, is insurmountable. You know, you get things, you get a good OEM relationship, you start cranking these things out off the line. All I’m saying is that any, you know, what is the, what. From an investor standpoint, we look at things three months, six months, whatever, a year. Over the next year, you know, where are these two companies gonna be with their partn- And by the way, if, for example, Nuro, which I’ve said many times in this podcast, has a couple hundred cars in the market in the June, that’s in one market. That is huge for them. They can raise off of that. They can, you know, build a, a better, m- you know, be a stronger partner. But again, you have to view this in the context of where Waymo is at that time. And the other thing that’s gonna be happening at Waymo at that time is we’ll see where the Hyundai relationship is, where maybe initially you’ve got some upfitting, but maybe Hyundai evolves, you know, into more inline manufacturing, scaling going up even further. And then secondly, you know, what other new OEM that Waymo starts the clock on, which wouldn’t necessarily be driving any volume by the middle of next year. But at least, like, what, you know, what are we gonna be doing on this podcast in another f- you know, 50, 50 more episodes from now, we’re gonna be saying, “Well, what’s happening in the middle of ’28?” Right? You just continue to roll the clock forward. So it’s not that it’s, that the carve number itself is insurmountable. It’s kinda where the momentum of, of Waymo is gonna be at that time.

Grayson Brulte: What we do know on the OEM front, the chief product officer of Waymo, about two months ago, gave a speech in Japan, in Japanese media. Omega uncovered it and translated it for us, where the chief product officer of Waymo in this speech talked about a, quote-unquote, “deepening relationship with Toyota.” It hap- the speech was given in Tokyo, not covered by American press, but covered by the Japanese media. Deepening relationship, and then four days ago, the chairman of Hyundai gave a speech in Silicon Valley, talked about Hyundai’s deepening relationship. That’s gonna get very interesting. Let’s just. This is hypothetical. The chief product officer of Waymo says deepening relationship with t- Toyota. Then the chairman of Hyundai says deepening relationship with Waymo. Waymo has two world-class global OEMs potentially with deepening relationships in Hyundai and Toyota. That gets very interesting very quickly i- if, if we’re reading the signals correctly there

Walter Piecyk: Well, time will tell. Now look, in this note, if you wanna read it, just self-register with a, you know, company employer’s email www.lightshedtmt.com. We also delved into kind of, you know, where is our friends at NVIDIA in all this, right? This was the one thing that gave Uber stock a bit of a rally at the start of the year. Where are they? And, and I delve into that and provide four recommendations for what Uber should do. So check that out on our website and maybe we’ll get to them, those four recommendations over the next couple of weeks. Should we move on to NHTSA or do you have anything more to say on this, on this Waymo-Uber battle?

Grayson Brulte: I will just give a plug. W- Walt wrote a beautiful piece, very elegant, and he, he, he gave it a little Mark Twain twist to it

Walter Piecyk: That sounds like a Trump. Very beautiful, very elegant.

Zoox Gets the Golden Ticket: NHTSA Approves Commercial Charging

Grayson Brulte: Well, if you don’t, if you don’t like the people that read it, you can tell them to self-deport out of the article, but that’s a whole different story. So that’s that. Read the article. But on the on the, the golden front, Zoox got the golden ticket,” NHTSA says, “Here you go. Here’s your golden ticket,” with a cap, 2,500 vehicles. But most importantly, they can charge. Andy Jassy must be doing cartwheels, backflips. Now that I said that, now they can charge. Do we get any statement from Andy Jassy on the Amazon earnings call about Zoox that they can actually char- after 12 years and billions of dollars, they can finally make $1

Walter Piecyk: I hope that they’re gonna get at least some type of shout-out ’cause you’re right, this is a momentous occasion. you know, thanks to, to the NHTSA administrator, Morrison who’s gonna push this forward. I think it’s 2,500 vehicles per year for two years, so they can get up to 5,000. which again, that would be a huge win for Zoox. We– You and I both have our questions about where that technology is and its capabilities right now. You may be able to charge. I’m not sure how many people are gonna be willing to pay if you’re only doing like six, seven, eight stops in a, in a given market. So we’ll see we’ll have to see how the technology advances. I don’t think they were waiting on the NHTSA administrator before they’re gonna unleash, you know, true flexible, let’s call it, autonomous service rather than just, you know, these fixed locations. but yeah, positive. W- and what is the read-through in terms of, of Tesla? ‘Cause I actually kind of, in a way, view it a bit negatively in that I don’t like this 2,500 cap. for Zoox, I don’t care because, like, I think 2,500 would be a win for them. For Tesla, where it’s like, okay, the, the theory is when it’s on, it’s on, and it sh-should be going gangbusters. Then I’d get worried if there, there’s any type of limitation of the Cybercab of less than 2,500 a year. So is that, in fact, bad signal for Tesla if there’s some type of cap that’s associated with these, you know, wheel and pedal out vehicles

Grayson Brulte: I don’t necessarily think it’s a bad thing for Zoox, and I don’t think it’s a bad thing for Tesla. I think it’s actually, it’s the opposite. It’s a very positive movement for the entire robotaxi industry. Zoox, it benefits more because their vehicles clearly cannot scale as fast as Cybercab. But at 2,500 vehicles, you said 5,000 for two years, that is a healthy amount of vehicles out there. Look at Waymo’s publicly reported number by Bloomberg, 3,800. So in two years, 5,000 Cybercabs is, is quite a big number. And then perhaps, we don’t know, we have to look to Mr. Administrator Morrison for clarity on there. Perhaps after that two years, that cap goes away. Perhaps it’s the, if you wanna, the spring training or the minor league. So I view it as a positive ’cause Tesla apparently or clearly based on the ruling, has a very viable path To deploying 2,500 Cybercabs a Year

Walter Piecyk: I mean, I could not disagree more i-in that, like, yeah, 5,000 seems great now for a company in Tesla, who in Austin has, has been in that market for a year and can’t even get to our benchmark, the autonomy market benchmark of 100 cars available for commercial service. Sure, in that context, it looks great. But in the context of the believers in Tesla, and I try to believe in whatever company, you know, is, is hoping to achieve, the theory is that, you know, once you get these miles done for the Cybercab, which last podcast we talked about, you know, maybe it’s 250,000 miles, maybe It’s the end of the year. It’s like first you’re walking, running, whatever it is, then you’re sprinting. Like, if you’re good to go at the end of the year, you’re telling me that Gigafactory that we visited can’t crank out multiples of 2,500 Cybercabs a year? Of course, they can. Of course, they can. So if you’re now getting handcuffed, you know, so i-is this an inkling of, of them potentially getting, you know, handcuffed, you know, by this new thing? Or is this just kind of phase one, and by the time Tesla gets ready to go and the NHTSA administrator is getting the data that he wants and he’s demanding, especially in terms of first responders, that that number is gonna be removed altogether

Grayson Brulte: My read, reading the tea leaves, it’s phase one, and then over time, once the data, the safety case is validated, that number evaporates

Walter Piecyk: Let’s move on to something else that was in this letter from the from the administrator, which is this. I’m not even sure how to pronounce this, but it’s a A2CEN consortium with SAE, who you have done some work with explicitly aimed at a signal national standard. Is this what can relief, relieve us of these 2,500 car caps? Or what, what is that part of this all about?

SAE ITC Consortium and the Path to a National Robotaxi Safety Standard

Grayson Brulte: Yes. And so first and foremost Pete Doty, sir, job well done, sir. Job, job well done. So this is going to run through SAE ITC It’s a consortium. It’s a best practice, not a standard. I wanna clarify. There’s a big difference. ITC issues best practices. SAE International, through the working groups, issue standards. So this group is going to come together, and it will develop, industry will develop a best practice for safety to set a national safety standard. And it is my belief, once the industry buys into the standard, and then it is recognized by NHTSA and the federal government, the cap, the 2,500 cap per year will go away at that point. So to me, what Administrator Morrison did was say, “Okay, we are going to give you a path to start charging, and once the best practice is done and the federal government signs off on it, that cap will go away.” So watch the work that Pete Doty and the wonderful team at ITC are going to do. It’s gonna be really, really important. It’s gonna have a, a, frankly, a huge impact, huge impact on The future of robotaxis in America

Walter Piecyk: So maybe that’s the answer I was looking for, which is that this 2500 thing or, or the Zoox approval is just priming the pump. It’s, it’s getting the federal government behind the industry while you have local municipalities fighting it at least in some areas. But the, but the longer term is a single national standard, which by the time, hopefully, that Tesla is ready to go, which I know people that are more bullish than I think that’s like tomorrow, but to me it seems like more like end of year, early next that this stuff will be resolved. How quickly does SAE, how, how quickly do you think this consortium can work? How, how quickly can they deliver, do you think, on a single national standard? Obviously, the timeline here is the president’s term

Grayson Brulte: Just to clarify and not to go in the weeds, it’s a best practice, not a, not a standard. It’s really going to depend on how fast the consortium can move. I will give you a very optimistic bullish number, 12 months. Realistically, you’re probably in the 16-month range. It just Depends on how fast the consortium and the members of the Consortium wanna move

Walter Piecyk: Talk to your friends that are at the consortium and tell them they’re gonna need to work a little bit faster than that because this technology is moving faster than that. So I don’t think we wanna wait for 12 to 16 months for a, a best practices standard

Grayson Brulte: It’s going to happen, and it’s not the individuals and Pete Doughty’s team and all the individuals that, that work at ITC running it. It is the companies themselves because this is a co- a collaborative process. And, and how much resources are the companies going to put? How much effort and time are they going to put? And so I just think historically of looking all the great work that the, that ITC has done over the years, I’m sticking to that 12 to 16 month range. Would it be awesome to go faster? Yes, but the Realistic likelihood of it happening is Less than 10%.

Aurora Earnings: Trucks, Milestones, and Communication Gaps

Walter Piecyk: All right, so now let’s move on to, we had a lot of earnings this week. We’re gonna have a lot of earnings next week. Aurora, Qualcomm, a couple of the OEMs. Let’s start with Aurora, you know, which we talked a little bit about last week ’cause of some of the, you know, some of the customer milestones and, and driver-out milestones that they were hitting. You know, they gave some updates. Things were a little, I think, a little slower than, than what I had hoped in terms of some of the near-term stuff, but it’s really getting to next year, right? and The number of trucks that they’re gonna have at year-end next year, which is 1,000. The number of trucks they’re gonna do this year is 200. the– the– It’s definitely very back-end loaded. but it’s next year, 1,000, 300, I think, of which are gonna be Volvo you know, with our friends over at Volta- Volvo Autonomous Solutions. So I think a lot of those or most of those will be driver-as-a-service for Aurora, so that’s low, that’s capital efficient, right? You know, ’cause Aurora. Excuse me, ’cause those are Volvo trucks. But the majority is gonna be, you know, whether it’s Conti or their existing guy, making, you know, upfitting existing trucks. seems like an aggressive target to get to that number of 1,000 trucks by the end of the year. What are your thoughts?

Grayson Brulte: It seems aggressive. are there enough international trucks to go around? I’m, I’m not trying to poop on this, I’m merely asking a question, ’cause you have to look at the fleets, the carriers need trucks. And Plus has a public partnership with Plus. We don’t know where that stands with International, so we have to look into that. Are there enough trucks to go around? I mean, that’s really the truly, the line. And then does Roush have enough spare capacity to hit that number? So I think there’s a lot of cooks in the kitchen in order to make this happen. I’ll be watching, I’ll be rooting For it, but there’s a lot of things have to go right in order to hit that Number

Walter Piecyk: Well, it sounds like Roush has the capability. but the reason that they didn’t get to this, you know, 20 a week that they were supposed to be getting to in Q3 based on the numbers, ’cause they’re only gonna end Q2– Q three, excuse me, with 25 trucks in service. sounds like it wasn’t really Roush, it was this FiberNet, I guess, or whoever is the, the one before Imovio, which is the ex-Conti is delivering them the stacks. Again, all this is like near-term noise, proof of concept. Even owning the trucks for this company is really proof of tr- concept, right? That, that ultimately what you need. Just like, just like Uber needs to own the cars to get it out there and, and happen. But ultimately what’s gonna happen is, is they’re gonna want these trucking companies to buy the stack, you know, from effectively Continental or, or whatever it’s called now, Imovio and then just charge them based on, you know, on a, on a service, on a service plan

Grayson Brulte: At the end of the day, Aurora doesn’t wanna be asset-heavy. But when I look at all this and I still have questions and I can’t get straight answers, is that when Sasco and the team at Volvo Autonomous Solutions ramp up and they’re running the, the Aurora Driver and then Aurora ramps up, who goes where and who competes with what, and how does the margin split work? Because I truly believe that Volvo Autonomous Solutions is going to be a major, major Player in the future of autonomous trucking

Walter Piecyk: Yeah, look, I have a lot of questions about how these contract works, How, how they’re charged for miles, how it’s accounted for. Not necessarily getting clear answers on all of them. I’m su- I’m sure that’s because it’s, it’s a bit of a work in progress, and I’m guessing that they’re gonna agree to whatever contract terms the customer wants. But I think also the importance of the near-term stuff is it helps them raise capital. And, you know, they have money out until early 2028. But, you know, even in this quarter, when the stock was at $7, which some may find expensive and some may find cheap, but they were willing to issue shares through this program that, you know, effectively diluted the stock additionally ’cause you’re basically bringing in cash. But that’s what you do, right? You’re, you’re opportunistically and, and, and you’re opportunistically bringing in cash. So now, as you approach ’28, you wanna have more cash. So in order to get more cash, you wanna be, have that be as cheap as possible. So you want your stock to be higher. And by announcing new customers, by announcing more trucks that are getting upfit from Roush, whether they’re international or whoever, that’s gonna help them, you know, get to this end state of, you know, whatever, driver as a service, Volvo cranking them out and, and the thousands of trucks that are there. So ultimately, these near-term numbers become very important, even though it’s. You know, you can argue like, who gives a crap about the 20 o- 20 trucks, sorry mom, the 20 trucks that they have with PACCAR now that they’re basically, you know, like n- not used by the end of the year? Well, because it just shows some use of the product and again, enables the company to raise money. So that, that’s where these. And b- by the way, I’ve seen this, I’ve done this 30 years. I’ve seen these, these types of near-term unit KPI metrics and how they, you know, are, have an outsized importance in the overall success of the company. And I think there’s– it’s gonna be no different. Aurora, Aurora needs to do a better job at communicating precisely how many trucks are gonna be in the market, at what time, and by who, and under what type of revenue structure. Even if it’s not what it might look like three years from now

Grayson Brulte: Communication’s key, and I’ll ask for this. Autonomous/driverless miles do not count if they’re supervised. So what is the true number without a, without a human in the cab? That is the number that says a lot, because when there’s a human in the cab, a human technically has the ability to take over, and when there’s a human in the driver’s seat supervising it, they’re not autonomous, they’re supervised. That’s, it is a different mile. Like to see some clarity on that. And then do we get any color as it relates to the, the PACCAR relationship? We saw the CEO of PACCAR came out and said, “No way, Jose. We’re not letting anybody go driver-out.” Do we, do we get any clarity from Aurora on Their call as it relates to the relationship with PACCAR? Is it over, Are they mothballing these Trucks?

Walter Piecyk: I mean, it’s definitely not over, and I think if anything, they sound, sound, without stating anything specific, optimistic about, you know, as they get future generations of, of their, you know, their sensor stack, bringing them back into the fold and, and that occurring in the 2027 calendar year. But to your point, you know, PACCAR, you know, just the, the body language is quite dismissive on their earnings call about, you know, where they’re, you know, or how they’re, and if they’re ready to go

Grayson Brulte: Yeah, to me it was just, you know, thanks, next question. It just seems based on all the public communication from PACCAR that there is no desire at any point in time to allow any of their partners to go driver-out. I know we’re talking about Aurora, but the one that I would love to get clarity on is Stack. Stack has a very public partnership with, with PACCAR, and they’re saying that they’re gonna go driver-out, and then PACCAR is saying, “No, you can’t go driver-out.” It just seems to me that the partners wanna do one thing, and PACCAR’s saying, “No, not so fast.” And then this raises a question that you and I have debated on past podcasts. The OEM? Risk is real. The question is, how big of a risk is the OEM?

Walter Piecyk: Yeah, I think it’s, it’s probably bigger than people give it credit for, and I think what this industry needs is, is our friend Sasko at, at Vol- Volvo Autonomous Solutions to really drive forward, push this, crank out a lot of service and, and force these other OEMs to rethink their slower approach, because it takes years, I think, to make this happen. So I think, you know, we’re, we’re particularly rooting hard for Volvo Autonomous Solutions, primarily with Aurora. They claim maybe with Waabi. We’ll see if that anything gets delivered there next year to try and. Competition Grayson, always breeds innovation across the board. So I think that’s that’s what we need, and it feels like Aurora’s getting, gaining some mo-momentum in that regard.

Grayson Brulte: Yeah, I mean, we’ll, we’ll, we’ll sit here and watch. I think the autonomous trucking industry from a developer standpoint, the, all the competitors in that field are doing a really good job developing their technology, and they’re getting ready to, to cross the Rubicon and unleash commercialization. And the question is, do you really need an OEM? Because it appears, this appears that Aurora’s buying them from the dealer. Perhaps that’s the route that everybody else is Gonna go, cause it Eliminates the, I’ll call it an Alternate, the PACCAR risk.

Walter Piecyk: One last point on Aurora. Not one question on the earnings call about Tesla Semi, and that is striking. We will see where that occurs or, or what that’s like in two or three quarters. Let’s, let’s compare that with my telco land and, you know, I would’ve said year. You know, however many, four or five quarters ago, you know, when we were kind of early in pointing out that SpaceX would be potentially putting up cell towers to compete with these guys, no questions on it at the time. Now it, like, dominates these calls. So it’s a bit shocking. You– We, we did get a congratulations and a c- you know, a great quarter from one guy twice. He was busy patting them on the back, but, you know, maybe ask about the competitive dynamic. It seems pretty relevant

Grayson Brulte: It’s like, it’s like the, again, the clap you have. It, it’s the great quarter, guys. You, Rich, and the team at, at Lightshed with Brandon, you do one hell of a job documenting this. And I have to ask, and I’m always curious from the outsider standpoint, why would anybody open up a call, say, “Great quarter, guys”? What is behind that? Because you have the scorecard at Lightshed, and I love watching it, but I listen to this like, “Come On, aren’t you an analyst? Well, why are you rooting and saying great quarter?” I don’t get it.

Qualcomm Wins BMW ADAS Deal and the Trojan Horse into Autonomy

Walter Piecyk: Well, th- they’re trying to get Back on the call, but even before we had our, our earnings call scorecard, you know, on Wall Street, most people communicate versus, you know, via Bloomberg, and the, the amount of Bloombergs that we get during some of these questions when some of the analysts are puckered up I don’t know. But, you know, I guess it’s important to get on that call for them. Speaking of earnings calls Qualcomm, who is now on our radar, also had an earnings call, and they had, I think, an announcement, Grayson. BMW selected them as the lead compute silicon provider for next generation ADAS and the digital cockpic- cockpit, excuse me. if I recall, BMW earlier this year ended their personal pilot L3. I think that was a mobilized system. Not sure. I think Innoviz was the LIDAR in there. That product, I think, flopped and basically was removed in April, too limited. so now the next thing we hear about these guys in terms of ADAS is, is partnering with Qualcomm, and you know I was at their, their investor meeting not far back, and they were pushing on, you know, how this– how they, they see a huge opportunity, kind of like, you know, WeRide, get in the door with ADAS first and then hopefully grow that to a full autonomous system

Grayson Brulte: BMW, what they told Automotive News was they canceled the L3 citing costs. But Automotive News and the, the team is still left there. I know Pete Bigelow’s not there, but the team at Automotive Moove- News did some re- great de- research on that and did some digging, and Automotive News reported that it wasn’t selling So it, it wasn’t selling at the end of the day, and then spoke to some friends in insurance world and they said it’s liability. All that aside, it is a great win for Qualcomm and their ambitions for their Snapdragon Digital Chassis. And what it also does is it further, what you and I have discussed at great lengths, and we saw it on the Tesla earnings call, the growth of the L2+ ADAS market. We’re seeing it with WeRide, now we’re seeing it with Qualcomm. That market is gonna become an Absolute juggernaut in automotive

Walter Piecyk: Yeah. I mean, they Were– they specifically shouted it out as a, quote, “significant portion of the design pipeline.” Someone did ask them about autonomy, and basically the answer was like, “Well, it’s kinda creeping in,” and then pivoted right back to, to talking up the the opportunity for ADAS ’cause that is, you know, in the near term particularly, you know, a huge revenue and, you know, with a hat tip to, to Odyssey and perhaps the Trojan horse into, you know, becoming the chip guy for autonomy, you know, when it gets there, as opposed to their competitors, which are largely what? NVIDIA and I guess to a lesser extent, Mobileye

Grayson Brulte: And don’t forget Arm. As we know, Arm has grand ambitions in this field as well. But I’ll make a prediction, and, and it’s not an out there prediction. At some point in the future, a Mobileye architecture will end up powering An autonomous vehicle. L4. The Question is when, not if

GM Super Cruise and Ford BlueCruise: ADAS Winners and Losers

Walter Piecyk: And Qualcomm wasn’t the only one where we got Positive signal, you know, from what’s going on in that market, ADAS. GM talked about the best ever quarter for Super Cruise. It’s gonna be s- high-end– excuse me, standard on their high-end Silverado, Silverado trims. So that’s like 160,000 incremental units. The attach rates are like 30 or 40% on this. That’s really, I think, pretty good. obviously this is not Tesla level ADAS, right? They’re still talking about 2028 eyes-off, hands-off program to meeting that milestone for that timeline. I think our buddy Sterling Anderson, I think is gonna have a big part to do with that, but we don’t hear much from Sterling Anderson. He got hired. He was all over the place speaking at conferences. The guy’s gone quiet. I think he was with the president recently when, when the president visited GM, but beyond that I don’t know what to think of where they are on their progress to getting to that eyes-off, hands-off program

Grayson Brulte: Yeah, it was, we haven’t heard much from Sterling and they, they had a technology day, so Sterling was there as the lead presenter of that, and then we did see Sterling with the president at GM. But I give GM a lot of credit for embracing this, this L2 strategy, and I wish them well. And from all the reports that I’m reading out of the Detroit News that they’re, they’re making progress on it. But the only caveat that I have on this, I think pre-mapped, predefined routes is not the future. Tesla is clearly proving with FSD supervised that you don’t need to pre-map, and GM could push back and say, “Oh, it’s the liability, it’s the liability.” But at the end of the day, if you’re gonna go visit your mom, you don’t wanna just get on 95 and use it, and when you get off 95 -oh, I can’t use it. That’s not a good Experience. That is a half-baked experience

Walter Piecyk: I could not agree more. I love the fact that you used half-baked, and I feel like we need to set up another Bigelow battle, except rather than Raquel battling Sterling on that whole concept of end-to-end versus having these routes, we’re gonna insert Grayson Brulte, Brulte, for the fight. Can we get that? Can we, can we recreate that at this year’s CES, Grayson versus Sterling, end-to-end versus maps?

Grayson Brulte: I think they’re, the only, I, I would gladly do it, Sterling. I know you listen, so I’ll, I’ll gladly do it, But the only issue is I think Sterling and I would Agree too much

Walter Piecyk: Well, I’m sure if I was the moderator, I could probably stimulate some type of battles. Now let’s move on to Ford. I do in fact also own a Ford on top of my Tesla. By the way, Grayson, I think I’m approaching 7,000 miles of, of SS- FSD on my Tesla. but I do o- own a Ford, and I’ve got this BlueCruise. And, and Ford on their earnings call saying pay- the paid subs is up 20% and which is now 50% of their integrated service revenue, 840 miles driven. I’ve tried to use it. It’s garbage. I mean, it’s literally just garbage. Like, when you use a Tesla and you, and you think BlueCruise is gonna do something, it is just. It’s, there’s nothing good about that. So I’m glad they can pat themselves on the back, back on their earnings call, but if that’s what you consider any type of ADAS or anything other than glorified whatever. What do they call it? Glorified. What’s the, what’s the term when the, when the car stays the same. You’re gonna have to edit this part. cruise control. Yeah, edit all this shit out. anything more than glorified cru- cruise control, if anything, is worse ’cause it, like, forces me to have my hand on the, on the wheel. I’d rather, like, not have my ha- it just, it’s just bad. So sorry, Ford. Do better

Grayson Brulte: It is bad and Ford knows this. I don’t know if you know this. A while ago, Ford gave me a press car to try BlueCruise, and I didn’t get a field report. It was not very good at all. It was on, I took it out for two test drives And it, sat in my driveway. it, was completely Unusable. it, was that bad, so. It’s, it’s unfortunate. They’re Behind

Walter Piecyk: Terrible. And it, and it gives it, yeah, it gives a bad name for, for ADAS overall, but we digress. So what do we have on the foreign autonomy Desk for this week, Grayson?

Foreign Autonomy Desk: Baidu Tests RT6 in London with Uber and Lyft, Goes Driverless in Hong Kong

Grayson Brulte: This week, the Ford Autonomy Desk is taking us to the land of tea and crumpets. No, we’re not going to Buckingham Palace. Soon, though. Why is that relevant? It’s relevant because of the way that London is zoned. We put on our inspector hats and we took a look at the announcements. Baidu announced that they are testing the RT6 robotaxi in London with both Uber and Lyft. Couple of interesting things to point out there. One, Uber on X put out a generic mocked-up Photoshop photo, and oh, by the way, there was a URL on the vehicle. I put it in, it, didn’t work. Baidu PR had to write to Uber to correct it, all public on X. Furthermore, Uber did not release a area where they’re going to be testing the vehicle. Lyft, on the other hand, put out a beautiful non-Photoshopped photo. Interesting thing there, no Baidu logo on that. Baidu PR, again, on X, sends a photo. You can see the back has a Baidu logo. Where Lyft is testing the RT6 is out by Wembley Stadium. We don’t know where Uber’s testing, but the reason I say Buckingham Palace, it’s not testing in the heart of London, which raises the question, will these vehicles be deployed in the heart of London, or will they be deployed very similar, sorry, Tesla, to how Tesla deploys on the Outskirts of cities? Something to watch, Walt. Something to watch

Walter Piecyk: Yeah, I can’t wait to See. But, you know, as a Shout-out, the Eagles are playing in London this year. Liverpool has a new head coach and no Mo Salah anymore. There’s plenty of reasons that I would love to come to London and check out whatever technology companies happen to be headquartered there and see where the progress is on, on their cars. What do you– You know, we would love to. Let’s just put it this way. We’d love to do more field work in the great city Of London

Grayson Brulte: Well, I’ll let you in on a little secret, but don’t tell our listeners and viewers. Two companies have invited me for rides, and I’m glad to bring you along. Rob and I are going. We’re allowed to gr- on, you on. We’ll be the, the Three Stooges going around London doing field work. The two companies have invited me, you know who you are, and a huge thank you, and one Hasn’t, and that’s for the Audience to guess, ’cause I will not reveal who that is

Walter Piecyk: I think our audience knows who that is, but can I drag you up to Liverpool for a match up there? It’s an unforgettable experience At Anfield

Grayson Brulte: You can drag me up there and I will be the world’s biggest Fan. How’s that?

Walter Piecyk: That’s wonderful. What else do we have on the foreign Autonomy desk?

Grayson Brulte: Staying on the Baidu front, in Hong Kong, Baidu received a permit to go full driverless. Right-hand driving, very interesting to watch. We broke it down on Autonomy Signals last week what that means, but Baidu is full driverless in Hong Kong

Walter Piecyk: And then also, I guess China’s resuming their robotaxi permits. I saw some headlines on Bloomberg on that. This is the post-Wuhan review, so I, I’m sure they’ve gotten through some of those issues there, hopefully. so China’s back in Motion.

Grayson Brulte: Come on baby, let’s do the locomotion. Yes, they’re, they’re, they are back in motion. The autonomous Belt and Road Initiative of China is in full strength, moving full speed ahead. What do we need to look for next week as China moves ahead On Robotaxis?

Walter Piecyk: I mean, once again, I’ve got a lot of earnings, and the big one is gonna be Uber reporting the Q2. What’s your guess? How many questions into the Q&A is it gonna take before Dara gets the Waymo question?

Grayson Brulte: Well, I have to answer this with a question. How long until we get great quarter guys? So does that come first and then You actually get the Waymo question coming Second? That’s the question to watch

Walter Piecyk: We also have Lyft, Kodiak, Serve, and a bunch of LiDAR guys reporting, so it’ll be another busy week of reporting. I think you have a NHTSA deadline tomorrow on the 31st, so that’ll be out before the podcast released. We’ll see who files you know, within there. so we’ll have plenty to talk about next week, Grayson. There’ll be no shortage of content, so next week. And as a reminder, if you wanna read my four recommendations for Uber ahead of their earnings call to solve this autonomy, you know, quagmire that they’re facing over the next year, just log on www.lightshedtmt.com. Although, if you’re a competitor from a different bank, your domain will be blocked. Sorry, do your own work

Grayson Brulte: No research for you. Aha, I got a sur- a sure for you there. The future is bright, the future’s autonomous. The future is no pedals, no steering wheel, and scaling. Walt, until next week